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Summer ReliabilityAssessment Consultation
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Document Approved by Recipients of controlled copies
CD/T02/001 NC ADWEC, TRANSCO, ADDC, AADC
Bureau
Summer Reliability Assessment
Author Document Issue Publication date Approved by
KB CD/T02/001 1 25 May 2011 NC
Page 1 of 23
Summer Reliability Assessment
Consultation
CD/T02/001
25 May 2011
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Foreword
1. One of the duties of the Bureau is to provide the Abu Dhabi Government with
independent briefings on the status of the electricity sector. Such briefings cover all
aspects of the sector: strategic, operational, technical and commercial.
2. An important matter for the Government is how well prepared the sector is to meet the
summer demand in the forthcoming year, this being the time when the sectors
capabilities are most extended. To date, the Bureau has provided ad hoc briefings to the
Government on forecast summer status and any issues likely to arise.
3. The Bureau now proposes establishing a routine annual process to produce a Summer
Reliability Assessment (SRA). This will be an assessment of how well-equipped and
prepared the sector is to satisfy customer demand during the coming summer peak. The
intention is that the SRA would be finalised by the end of the last quarter of each year;
the first SRA will be completed at the end of 2011.
4. The SRA will draw together information for the whole sector. It is envisaged that the final
confidential report to the Government will be a brief summary, with the emphasis on
clearly identifying key issues and status.
5. The SRA will present the Bureaus assessment of status, based on information provided
by sector companies. Consequently, there will need to be a defined process laying out
the timetable and the information that sector companies will need to provide.
6. It is anticipated that much of the information required will already be produced by sector
companies. However it is recognised that there may need to be some changes to what is
currently reported, the format in which it is provided and report timelines - the provision ofdata will in future need to strictly align with the SRA annual timetable.
7. The Bureau envisages discussing the details of the information required for the SRA with
individual companies subsequent to this consultation. It is recognised that the SRA is
likely to evolve reflecting feedback on experience as it is used in the future.
8. Clearly, given the visibility of, and audience for, the SRA, the Bureau will want to be
assured of the quality of the underlying data. Where appropriate, the Bureau will discuss
with sector companies the processes used to provide the data.
9. The SRA, by presenting a succinct sector-wide summary, will be of great value to the
Government. It will also provide a vehicle for the sector to communicate matters of
importance. It is expected that in defining the SRA, the sector will have the opportunity to
communicate at the highest level a consolidated view of the complex inter-dependencies,
key risks and target investment areas to underpin immediate and medium-term security
of supply. Moreover, defining the SRA will allow the sector to consider the most
appropriate indicators of readiness and risk in each area.
10. This consultation document describes the approach that the Bureau proposes to take,
describing the scope of the SRA, the responsibilities of sector companies and the
proposed annual timetable.
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11. Specific consultation questions are included in the document and comments are also
invited on any aspect of the proposals. Responses should be submitted by 30th June
2011 and should be sent to:
Ali Al Mashjari, Production Manager, RSB
KARL BROWNSON
DIRECTOR PRODUCTION AND CONTRACTS
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Executive Summary
Introduction and Objectives
1. The Bureau proposes presenting to the Abu Dhabi Government an annual assessment of
the robustness of the electricity sector to meet the forthcoming summer period. The
assessment will be called the Summer Reliability Assessment (SRA).
2. It is proposed that the SRA will cover the period May to October.
Scope, Format and Content
3. The SRA will cover the whole sector and will be built upon a series of Topic Area
assessments submitted by the responsible sector company. These will include:
(a) Demand Forecast (ADWEC)
(b) Production (ADWEC), based on
(i) Fuel Supply (ADWEC)
(ii) Generation Capacity (ADWEC)
(c) Transmission and Despatch (TRANSCO)
(d) Distribution (AADC, ADDC)
4. The emphasis will be on making the SRA succinct, with the target for its total length
being about 10 pages (or less).
5. The Topic Area assessments will in essence be risk assessments and will include
Conclusions, Key Indicators, Summary Data, and Risks, Issues and Actions.
6. The Bureau will build the SRA using the submitted Topic Area assessments but will
reach its own view on the risks in each area. The Bureau will draft and issue the overall
SRA document and consequently, the SRA will be a Bureau report. It is expected that the
SRA will be a confidential document.
Process and Timetable
7. It is expected that the annual process will include initial definition work in the first part of
the year and that data submission and SRA production will need to take place from
September onwards, leading to the SRA being completed by year-end.
8. The proposed timetable provides for an initial and final version of the Topic Area
assessments, so that the final version will take account of the latest information available
towards year-end.
9. It is anticipated that much of the data needed for the SRA will already be readily available
from sector companies; however it is recognised that there may be some additions and
there will be a need to align processes and timetables.
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10. The first SRA will be produced at the end of 2011.
Consultation Process
11. Comments on the proposals are invited by 30th
June 2011 and should be sent to;
Ali Al Mashjari, Production Manager, RSB
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Contents
1. Introduction .................................................................................... 7Objectives Consultation Questions ........................................................... 7
2. Scope of the SRA .......................................................................... 9Scope Consultation Questions ................................................................. 9
3. The Format of the SRA ................................................................ 10Format Consultation Questions .............................................................. 10
4. Content of the SRA ...................................................................... 12Annual Period to be Covered ................................................................. 12Topic Area Assessments ........................................................................ 12Consolidated Summary and Conclusions ............................................... 13Content Consultation Questions ............................................................. 13
5. Process and Annual Timetable .................................................... 15The SRA Process ................................................................................... 15Annual SRA Schedule ............................................................................ 15Integration With Existing Sector Planning Processes ............................. 16Consultation Questions .......................................................................... 16
6. Consultation Process ................................................................... 17Annex A ................................................................................................ 18
Introduction ............................................................................................. 18Topic Area: Demand Forecast................................................................ 18Topic Area: Fuel Supply ......................................................................... 18Topic Area: Generation Capacity ........................................................... 19Topic Area: Production ........................................................................... 20Topic Area: Transmission and Despatch ................................................ 21Topic Area: Distribution .......................................................................... 22
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1. Introduction
1.1 One of the duties of the Bureau is to brief the Abu Dhabi Government on the status of
the electricity sector and highlight in advance any issues that should be brought to its
attention. The Bureau gives these briefings as and when necessary and they mayaddress any aspect of the sectors activities.
1.2 Of particular interest to the Government is how well prepared the sector is for the
summer period, since it is recognised that during this period the sectors capabilities
and capacity are under the most stress.
1.3 The Bureau therefore intends to institute a regular annual report to the Government
which will look forward to the next summer period. In short, the objective will be to
provide the Government with an annual overview (The Summer Reliability
Assessment (SRA)) of the sectors robustness. The SRA will focus on the summer
period and will be published in the last quarter of the year.
1.4 In the above objective, robustness encompasses:
(a) The ability of the sector to meet forecast customer demand given normal
operations.
(b) The ability of the sector to continue to meet forecast customer demand in the
event of foreseeable but unexpected events.
(c) The ability of the sector to respond to and recover from unexpected events.
1.5 The SRA will be drafted and issued by the Bureau and presented to the Government
by the Bureau. It will be based upon information provided by sector companiesreflecting their own detailed understanding of the status in their own areas of
responsibility.
1.6 Given that the Government is the main audience of the report, the emphasis will be on
concise messages and clear communication of the main issues.
1.7 There will also be benefits to the sector as a whole: the SRA will highlight issues
which need to be addressed. By clearly identifying the most important issues, the
SRA will be a valuable tool for RSB itself, helping to establish priorities for action.
1.8 This consultation describes the proposed scope, format, and general content of the
SRA; a detailed specification of the required data is not set out at this stage, but will
be agreed subsequently with sector companies. This consultation also sets out the
process and timetable for the production of the SRA.
Objectives Consultation Questions
1.9 Consultation Questions
(a) Do you support the objective of preparing an annual, forward looking SRA for the
Government which encompasses the whole sector?
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(b) Do you agree that it is appropriate to focus on the robustness of the sector,
meaning the ability of the sector to meet forecast consumer demand under a
variety of circumstances?
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2. Scope of the SRA
2.1 It is intended that the scope of the SRA should encompass the end to end robustness
of the sector from fuel supply through to supply to the end consumer. Figure 2.1
illustrates, conceptually, the scope of the SRA.
Figure 2.1: Scope of SRA
ProductionAssessment
SUMMERRELIABILITYASSESSMENT
DemandForecastAssessment
FuelSupplyAssessment
Primary BUF
GenerationCapacity
Assessment
Availability
Outages
Connections
DistributionAssessment
Connections/Reinforcements
Capacity
Outages
Transmission&DespatchAssessment
Connections/Reinforcements
Outages
Capacity/Constraints
Capacity
EmergencyPlans
EmergencyPlansLOLE
2.2 Figure 2.1 shows the main areas which will be included in the SRA; by way of
illustration, it also indicates some of the topics which will be included within each main
area. A fuller description is given in Section 4.
2.3 Figure 2.1 also indicates some of the relationships between the various main areas. In
particular,, it recognises that the demand forecast forms an essential input and
backdrop to a number of areas. For clarity, however, the figure does not seek to show
every interaction: for example, aspects of the Transmission and Despatch
Assessment would no doubt reflect information on up to date generation status and
plans.
Scope Consultation Questions
2.4 Consultation Questions
(a) Do you consider any areas should be added to or omitted from the scope of the
SRA?
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3. The Format of the SRA
3.1 Figure 3.1 illustrates how the SRA will be built from base data about each Topic Area
provided by sector companies.
Figure 3.1: Format of the SRA
3.2 It is envisaged that at the top level the SRA will include a summary of conclusions
about overall status for the summer period (perhaps including a traffic light status
indicator) and a schedule of major risks, issues, and areas where mitigation action is
needed. The aim would be to make this 1 page or less in length. RSB will draft this
overview.
3.3 Also included in the SRA will be a summary assessment for each of the Topic Areas.
This will include conclusions about the status of the Topic Area for the summer
period, again including a traffic light status indicator. These conclusions will be
supported by a summary for the Topic Area including risks, issues and areas where
action is needed; this will be supported by key indicators and reference data.
3.4 Once again, the emphasis will be on conciseness for the Topic Area Assessments:
ideally, each of these would be less than 1 page long.
3.5 It is envisaged that the responsible sector company will submit their Topic Area
Assessment(s) to RSB for consideration for inclusion in the SRA.
3.6 A question to be considered would be how much supporting information would be
required for the report. If the primary audience is the Government, then too much
information may tend to obscure the conclusions.
Format Consultation Questions
3.7 Consultation Questions
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(a) Do you agree with the overall format and structure proposed for the SRA?
(b) Would you propose any changes to the SRA format and structure?
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4. Content of the SRA
4.1 In this section RSB proposes what information should be included in each section of
the SRA. At this stage, the data required is not set out in precise detail: it is envisaged
that the Bureau will agree the detailed specification subsequently with each of theresponsible sector companies.
Annual Period to be Covered
4.2 The objective is for the SRA to cover the period of high risk. While peak demand is
likely to occur during July to September, summer restrictions on planned outages
commence in April. It is also recognised that demand increases very rapidly from May
onwards and, for example, any forced outages during this period would therefore
present a risk.
4.3 To ensure that periods of high risk are covered, the Bureaus proposal is that the SRAshould cover the period May to October. This will encompass peak demand and also
periods where demand is changing rapidly.
Topic Area Assessments
4.4 This section summarises the proposed content for each Topic Area, starting with a
generic description which will apply to each. Following this, Table 4.1 gives a
summary of the content for each Topic Area Assessment. A fuller description for each
Topic Area is given in Annex A.
4.5 It is envisaged that each Topic Area Assessment will include the following:
(a) A dashboard style Conclusion setting out the forecast status for the summer
period. This would comprise:
(i) A traffic light indicator for the forecast status for the Topic Area, generally
as below:
Arrangements are in place and ready to meet requirements in the
Topic Area, taking account of any reasonably foreseeable
issues/risks forecast (in full control).
Significant risks/issues are identified and plans are ready and
approved to have the required corrective arrangements in place (in
control subject to identified dependencies).
Risks/issues identified for which no corrective/mitigating actions are
yet approved (At risk of failure without urgent action).
(ii) A brief statement of the forecast status of the Topic Area.
(b) Key Indicatorshighlighting important aspects of forecast status. These are likely
to be derived from Summary data for the Topic Area. Where possible, the
intention will be to identify a set of key indicators for each Topic Area, together
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with satisfactory, warning and danger levels for each indicator these will again
be displayed in dashboard style.
(c) Summary datafor key aspects of the Topic Area.
(d) Risks, Issues and Actions for the Topic Area.
4.6 Table 4.1 lists the main items to be included in the assessments for each Topic Area-
see Annex A for fuller details.
Consolidated Summary and Conclusions
4.7 The top level of the SRA will comprise the Bureaus overall view on the readiness and
resilience of the sector. This will be based on the individual Topic Area Assessments
submitted by sector companies and, as appropriate, will include key conclusions and
risks from these reports.
4.8 The Consolidated Summary and Conclusions will also look across the sector to reach
a view on the cumulative risk for the summer period arising and highlight any sector
risks and issues which have not emerged from the Topic Area Assessments.
4.9 A set of traffic light indicators will provide an overall view of forecast status. For
example, as below:
The sector is ready for the summer period and the risk of a major failure is low.
There are significant risks to be addressed before the summer period.
There is a high risk of a major failure during the summer period.
Content Consultation Questions
4.10 Consultation Questions:
(a) Do you agree that it is appropriate for the SRA to cover May to October annually?
If not, what period do you consider would be best?
(b) Do you agree with the proposed generic contents of each Topic Area
Assessment:
(i) Conclusion
(ii) Key Indicators
(iii) Summary data
(iv) Risks, Issues, Actions
(c) Please provide your views on the content proposed for each Topic Area (in Table
4.1 and Annex A). Specific proposals are welcomed at this stage, although the
Bureau expects to discuss precise details with sector companies following this
consultation.
(d) Is the information envisaged readily available within your company?
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5. Process and Annual Timetable
The SRA Process Responsibilities
5.1 The Bureau will be responsible for drafting, issuing and communicating the SRA; the
Bureau will use information provided by sector companies.
5.2 In the interests of efficiency, the Bureau will use information provided by sector
companies to determine a view of the sector, rather than developing separate
independent data. However, all information provided to the Bureau must be evidenced
and readily available for audit purposes as required.
5.3 The main responsibilities in the SRA process are expected to be as below:
(a) Communicate Goals and Objectives RSB.
(b) Design SRA process RSB.
(c) Communicate SRA process and brief sector companies RSB.
(d) Oversee SRA process execution (including assurance on data) RSB. The key
to the value and credibility of the SRA will be the quality of data on which it is
based. Clearly, the Bureau will need to have confidence in the basis of the report,
since the intended audience is the Government.
(e) Collect base data for a Topic Area the responsible sector company as identified
in Section 4.
(f) Produce assessment for a Topic Area it is proposed that the responsible sectorcompany will produce an initial assessment for consideration; RSB will provide a
view and develop any submission further as it deems necessary.
(g) Produce Overall SRA, brief/discuss with sector companies RSB.
(h) Communicate SRA, brief recipients RSB.
Annual SRA Schedule
5.4 An indicative timetable is given in Table 5.1. This shows that, after definitional work
earlier in the year, the production of the SRA would be carried out in the Autumn.
5.5 The timetable allows for two cycles of the production of the Topic Area
Aassessments. The first would be completed by the end of October, using the
information then available. This would include the latest available Demand Forecast,
which may well be that published earlier in the year.
5.6 Provision is made for a second cycle, to reflect any updated information and
comments on the first version. The final Topic Area Assessments would then be
submitted to RSB by the end of November. It is appreciated that this may require
changes to current sector company workplans, but this timeline will be necessary to
achieve the intended objectives.
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6. Consultation Process
6.1 The Bureau is happy to discuss any of the proposals in this paper during the
consultation period.
6.2 Comments on any aspect of the proposals are invited including, but not limited to, the
consultation questions included in the paper.
6.3 Responses should be emailed to:
Ali Al Mashjari, Production Manager, RSB
Responses should be sent by 30thJune 2011
6.4 At present, the Bureau intends to discuss consultation responses and the detailed
design of the SRA with sector companies during July 2011.
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Annex A
Introduction
A.1 This section gives an initial description, for each Topic Area, of the information that
should be included by the responsible sector company in the Topic Area Assessment.
The format for each follows the template given in Section 4.
A.2 The Bureau envisages that the exact definition of the information to be included will be
discussed with the responsible sector company.
Topic Area: Demand Forecast
A.3 The assessment for the Demand Forecast Topic Area will answer the questions:
(a) What is the forecast peak demand for the summer period?
(b) Any changes in demand estimate from the previous Seven Year Statement?
(c) Is their a significant risk that forecast peak demand will further increase
significantly?
A.4 The responsible sector company is ADWEC.
A.5 The Conclusionsfor this Topic Area will highlight in particular any forecast increases to
peak demand, or changes to the timing of the peak. For this Topic Area, the Traffic Light
Indicator will be used to indicate the risk that forecast peak demand has increased
significantly, or that its timing has changed.
A.6 Key indicatorswould be:
(a) % change of forecast peak demand over previous year actual peak.
A.7 Summary datawill be a graph showing peak demand through the summer period.
Topic Area: Fuel Supply
A.8 The assessment for the Fuel Supply Topic Area will answer the questions:
(a) Has adequate Primary Fuel been contractually secured for the summer period?
(b) What logistical risks exist for the delivery of the Primary Fuel (for example,
pipeline outages) and how are these to be addressed?
(c) If required, has adequate liquid fuel been contractually secured to meet routine
and continuous operation within the sector as per forecast requirements? Have
all logistics for this fuel been contractually secured through the SRA period?
(d) What remaining logistical risks remain to meeting the routine and continuous
operational requirements of the sector?
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(e) Are strategic emergency (7-day) stocks of Back Up Fuel (BUF) sufficient and in
place?
(f) What logistical risks exist for the delivery of BUF (for example, shipping
arrangements) to meet a period of extended BUF usage and how have these
been addressed?(g) Are supporting letters in place from all IWPPs specifically confirming their
individual full understanding of ADWECs requirements through the SRA period?
A.9 The responsible sector company is ADWEC.
A.10 The Conclusions for this Topic Area will summarise to what degree adequate fuel has
been secured to meet forecast summer demand, and how resilient this position is to
unexpected supply interruptions. The Traffic Light Indicator will be
If adequate Primary Fuel has been contractually secured, adequate additional
fuel (outside LTA) or any form of energy to substitute has been contractually
secured to meet short-term interruptions to Primary Fuel supply, and all required
logistical arrangements are in place
If adequate fuel has been contractually secured, but required logistical
arrangements are not yet complete or significant use of BUF is planned
If there is a shortfall in contractually secured Primary or BUF.
A.11 Key indicatorswill be
(a) At the peak, % of required Primary Fuel that has been contractually and
logistically secured and % that has been additionally assured.
(b) At the peak, the % of capacity for which the BUF requirement has been
contractually and logistically secured.
(c) At the peak, the % of any shortfall in Primary Fuel that secured BUF will cover.
A.12 Summary datawill be a graph showing, through the summer period, the Primary Fuel
needed to meet forecast demand, the amount that has been secured contractually and
logistically and the level of BUF which has been contractually and logistically secured to
meet any Primary Fuel shortfall.
A.13 Risks, Issues, and Actionswill include an assessment of how resilient the fuel supply is
to unexpected events: in particular, unexpected reductions in gas supply (e.g. a pipeline
outage); or BUF logistical problems. Also highlighted will be any required decisions and
actions.
Topic Area: Generation Capacity
A.14 The assessment for the Generation Capacity Topic Area will answer the questions:
(a) Will adequate generation capacity be available to meet demand through the
summer period?
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(b) Are any significant generation outages or reductions in availability planned for the
summer period?
(c) To what extent does meeting summer demand rely on the successful completion
of planned generation outages or the commissioning of new plant?
(d) Will security of generation criteria be maintained at forecast demand?
(e) To what extent could unplanned generation outages in the summer be absorbed
whilst still meeting forecast demand?
A.15 The responsible sector company is ADWEC.
A.16 The Conclusions for this Topic Area will summarise to what degree the installed
generation capacity is adequate to meet forecast demand, leaving aside any factors
external to the plants, such as fuel availability. The Traffic Light Indicators will be
If throughout the summer period the installed capacity taking account of forecastreliability and planned outages is adequate to meet demand, with the required
Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) standard satisfied.
If the installed capacity meets forecast demand with the required LOLE standard
satisfied, but only with a reliance on commissioning of new plant, or by assuming
exceptional measures (such as, for example, peak or emergency capacity
from IWPPs).
If at any time during the summer period, the installed capacity is not adequate to
meet forecast demand and meet the required LOLE standard.
A.17 Key Indicatorswill be
(a) Overall LOLE for the summer period and LOLE for each week
(b) System margin (%) through the summer period
A.18 Summary Data will include a graph showing available capacity and forecast demand
throughout the summer period.
A.19 Risks, Issues and Actions will include consideration of to what degree an unexpected
loss of generation capacity could be absorbed whilst still meeting forecast demand.
Topic Area: ProductionA.20 The assessment for the Production Topic Area is based on the conclusions from the Fuel
Supply and Generation Capacity Topic Areas taken together and will answer the
questions:
(a) Will the production of electricity be sufficient to meet demand throughout the
summer period?
(b) To what degree is the ability to meet demand resilient to unexpected events?
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(c) What, if any, exceptional measures will need to be taken to meet forecast
demand through the SRA period and what impact would these have on water
production?
A.21 The responsible sector company is ADWEC.
A.22 The Conclusionswill provide an overall view of the risk that production will not be able
to meet demand in the summer period. The Traffic Light Indicators will be:
If it is forecast that production will meet demand throughout the summer period,
without reliance on exceptional measures (such as extended use of BUF or
forced reductions in production of water).
If it is forecast that there is a significant risk that production will not be able to
meet demand at some time during the summer period (if, for example, LOLE only
just meets the required standard overall or system margin is close to acceptable
limits).
If it forecast that there is a high risk that at some time during the summer period,production will not meet forecast demand (for example, LOLE does not meet the
required standard, or supplies of Primary Fuel have not been secured, or
extended use of BUF is planned).
A.23 The assessment for this Topic Area builds upon those for fuel and generation capacity,
and it is not expected that additional Key Indicators or Summary Datawill be required.
A.24 Risks, Issues, Actionswill explain the key factors leading to the risk assessment, and
the actions necessary to mitigate the identified risks. The ability to maintain adequate
production in the face of unexpected events will also be described.
Topic Area: Transmission and Despatch
A.25 The assessment for the Transmission and Despatch Topic Area will answer the
questions:
(a) Will the transmission network be able to serve forecast demand throughout the
summer period?
(b) Will it be possible to meet the required security standards, including level of
reserve on the network, throughout the summer period?
(c) Will any areas of the network be particularly at risk?
(d) To what extent does the ability of the network to serve forecast demand rely on
enhancements and maintenance to be completed before the summer?
(e) How resilient is the network to unexpected events and are emergency plans
ready to meet such occurrences? Are Black Start preparations ready?
A.26 The responsible sector company is TRANSCO.
A.27 The Conclusions will summarise whether, given the planned configuration of the
network and operating requirements and constraints, it will be possible to reliably serve
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Author Document Issue Publication date Approved by
KB CD/T02/001 1 25 May 2011 NC
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forecast demand. The ability to respond to unexpected events will be assessed, including
the ability to recover from major failures. The Traffic light Indicators will be:
If it is forecast that with the expected network configuration, all forecast demand
will be served throughout the summer period.
If it is forecast that there is a significant risk that all forecast demand will not beserved at some point during the summer period, or that serving forecast demand
depends on yet to be completed enhancements.
If it is forecast that there is a high risk that all demand will not be served at some
point during the summer period, or that security standards will not be met at
some time during the summer.
A.28 Key indicatorswill be
(a) Forecast level of generation and transmission constraints through the summer
period.
(b) Forecast level of planned transmission outages through the summer period.
(c) Is suitable Emergency & Disaster Recovery plan available?
(d) Percentage of Demand at Single Circuit risk (With & without Derogation) during
summer period.
A.29 Summary Datawill be as for Key Indicators
A.30 Risks, Issues, Actionswill explain the key factors leading to the risk assessment, and
the actions necessary to mitigate the identified risks.
Topic Area: Distribution
A.31 The assessment for the Distribution and Supply Topic Area will answer the questions:
(a) Will the distribution network be able to serve forecast demand throughout the
summer period, without a decline in the customer service KPIs?
(b) Will any areas of the network be particularly at risk?
(c) Percentage of Demand at Single Circuit risk (With & without Derogation) during
summer period.
(d) Is suitable Emergency & Disaster Recovery plan available?
(e) To what extent does the ability of the network to serve forecast demand rely on
enhancements and maintenance to be completed before the summer?
(f) How resilient is the network to unexpected events, and are emergency plans
ready to meet such occurrences?
A.32 The responsible sector companies are ADDC and AADC and it is envisaged that each
will provide a separate assessment for their area of responsibility.
A.33 The Conclusions will summarise whether, given the planned configuration of the
network and operating requirements and constraints, it will be possible to serve forecast
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Summer Reliability Assessment
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demand (assuming adequate bulk supply from the TRANSCO network) whilst
maintaining the quality of customer service. The Traffic light Indicators will be:
If it is forecast that customer service quality and security of supply standards will
with a high probability be maintained throughout the summer period.
If it is forecast that there is a significant risk that security of supply or customerservice quality will decline in the forthcoming summer period, or that achieving
the required quality depends on yet to be completed enhancements.
If it is forecast that there is a high risk that security of supply or customer service
quality standards standards will be lower than during the previous summer.
A.34 Key Indicatorswill be:
(a) Planned level of planned outages through the summer period.
(b) % of demand served by substations where forecast demand will exceed 80% of
firm capacity.
A.35 Summary datawill include that necessary to support the key indicators.
A.36 Risks, Issues, Actions will identify any aspects of the network particularly at risk.