Download - ConvergEx U S Market Volatility Survey
-
8/12/2019 ConvergEx U S Market Volatility Survey
1/12
U.S. Market Volatility Survey
July 2014
-
8/12/2019 ConvergEx U S Market Volatility Survey
2/12
On Top of the Markets | Ahead of the Curve
Note from Anthony Saliba
1
When will volatility return?
As U.S. stock indexes continue to hit new all-time highs in 2014, investment professionals have
asked the question endlessly. The CBOEVolatility Index (VIX), considered by many to be the
world's best barometer of investor sentiment and market volatility, is down more than 11% for the
year at the time of this writing. Yes, we have seen occasional spikes, but the downward trend has
quickly resumed each time. Do the bulls still have room to run?
The results of our U.S. Market Volatili ty Survey reveal an investment community expecting
volatility to rise soon 81% expect a rise by the end of the year but worried that its own members
are being too complacent. In fact, two-thirds (66%) of our respondents say that market participantsare too complacent or much too complacent, not buying the protection that options represent and
the VIX measures.
Market participants are also clear on where they think volatility will come from: a majority (51%) of
those surveyed identified U.S. Federal Reserve policy as the most l ikely driver of a near-term spike
in volatility, far more than the number who named events in the Middle East (16%) or Ukraine
(14%).
Every day, we hear from our clients on this topic. Whether its the buy-side looking for the best
strategies in a low volatility environment, or sell-side worries as the VIXs fear index remains low,
we stand ready to help our clients with our experience and technologies.
We hope this survey helps you make sense of the current situation and helps quantify feelings that
arent showing up in the VIX yet.
Anthony Sal iba
Executive Managing Director, ConvergEx Group
-
8/12/2019 ConvergEx U S Market Volatility Survey
3/12
On Top of the Markets | Ahead of the Curve2
U.S. Market Volatility Survey
Please identify the type of company you work for :
Sell-side
Buy-side
Individual/Retail Investor
Service Provider
Other
34%
3%
10%
8%
-
8/12/2019 ConvergEx U S Market Volatility Survey
4/12
On Top of the Markets | Ahead of the Curve
6%
53%
33%
8%
3
U.S. Market Volatility Survey
Do you believe the CBOEVolatil ity Index (VIX) is an
accurate forecast of short term U.S. stock market volatility?
Not Accurate /
Not At All Accurate
Very Accurate
Accurate
Neutral
-
8/12/2019 ConvergEx U S Market Volatility Survey
5/12
On Top of the Markets | Ahead of the Curve4
U.S. Market Volatility Survey
What macro dr iver is most l ikely to cause a near term
spike in U.S. Market volatil ity?
Other
U.S. Central
Bank Policy
Foreign Central
Bank Policy
Events in Ukraine
Events In Middle East
15%
-
8/12/2019 ConvergEx U S Market Volatility Survey
6/12
On Top of the Markets | Ahead of the Curve5
U.S. Market Volatility Survey
Do you believe investors in the capital markets are too complacent
at the moment given historically low volatility levels?
16%
50%
23%
9%
2%
-
8/12/2019 ConvergEx U S Market Volatility Survey
7/12
On Top of the Markets | Ahead of the Curve6
U.S. Market Volatility Survey
In your opinion, which major capital market is the most
complacent at this t ime?
50%
25%
9%
6%
3%
7%
-
8/12/2019 ConvergEx U S Market Volatility Survey
8/12
On Top of the Markets | Ahead of the Curve7
U.S. Market Volatility Survey
Has the low U.S. Market volati lity been good or bad for your
business?
9%
29%
34%
21%
6%
-
8/12/2019 ConvergEx U S Market Volatility Survey
9/12
On Top of the Markets | Ahead of the Curve8
U.S. Market Volatility Survey
Has the low U.S. Market volati lity been good or bad for your
business?
Bad/Very Bad
Good/Very Good
Sell-side
Buy-side
Sell-side
Buy-side
-
8/12/2019 ConvergEx U S Market Volatility Survey
10/12
On Top of the Markets | Ahead of the Curve9
U.S. Market Volatility Survey
What are your estimates for the CBOE VIX Index for September 30th
and December 31st? (on 7/23/14 the Index was @11.60)
-
8/12/2019 ConvergEx U S Market Volatility Survey
11/12
On Top of the Markets | Ahead of the Curve10
U.S. Market Volatility Survey
Do you use listed options in your investment strategy?
35%
-
8/12/2019 ConvergEx U S Market Volatility Survey
12/12