COVID-19andsocialprotectionofthepoorandmostvulnerable
NoraLustig(CEQI,TulaneUniversity)
MarianoTommasi(CEDH,UniversityofSanAndrés)
MeetingoftheUNDP,CEQI,CGEPGroupSocialProtectioninResponsetotheCOVID-19Pandemic
April24,2020
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KEYMESSAGES
1. TheCOVID-19pandemicishittingpoorandvulnerablepopulationsthehardestq Healthrisksq Livingconditions
2. Notonlyaffectingthemonetarypoorq Alsomanyotherdeprivations
3. Actionstomitigatetheimpactarecrucialü Ethicalreasonsü Toavoidirreversibleeffectsonhumancapital
ü Externalities§ RaghuramRajan:“Inorderforanywhereintheworldtobesafe,thevirushastobedefeatedeverywhere”
4. Effectiveresponseswillrequire:Ø Resources(BUDGETARYPRIORITY)Ø Vigorous,focusedandwell-implementedactions(POLITICALANDINSTITUTIONALPRIORITY)–
Notjustfinancialtransfers
5. Althoughgovernmentsmustplayacentralrole….Ø Collaborationoflocalgrassrootsorganizations(NGOs,etc.)isalsocrucial
𝑌
𝑃↓0 𝑃↓1 Rich Poor
Poor as a result of COVID-19
I I’
Income
Poverty line
Structural poverty
Figure1
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MonetaryPoverty
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(Inmillionsofpeopleandaspercentages)
Year 2018 2019 2020*Population 607.7 613.5 619.2Poverty Latin America (18 countries) 180.6 186.0 214.7 Rate 29.7% 30.3% 34.7%Extreme poverty Latin America (18 countries) 62.5 67.5 83.4 Rate 10.3% 11.0% 13.5%
* These are preliminary estimates and do not take into account the diversified impact between Source: United Nations Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)
the productive sectors and the rates of employment generated in each sector.
Table 7 |Latin America: Poverty and extreme poverty within a scenario of a 5.3% drop in GDP and a 3.4% increase in unemployment during 2020
Close to30million
peoplenewlyliving inpoverty
Closeto16millionpeoplenewlylivinginextremepoverty
Thissocioeconomicgroup
• Inadditiontolackingincome,experiencemultipledeprivations:
• Liveinslums,indigenouscommunities,orareundocumentedmigrants
• Othersexperienceadditionaldeprivations:children,theelderly,women,thedisabled,LGBT,theimprisoned
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THECOVID-19SHOCKINTERACTSWITHALLTHESEPREEXISITINGDEPRIVATIONS
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GlobalEconomicShocks
EpidemiologicalDynamics
SocialDistancingMeasures
CO
VID-19
InformalLabor
Noassets
NoSocialSecurity
Overcrowding
Noaccesstointernet
Healthproblems
Unbanked
DysfunctionalFamilyDynamics
Domesticviolence15%Childabuse
Nosafedrinkingwaterorsanitation
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82%Q1
82%Q1
20%urbanslums
22%,59%
34%w/ointernet
142,000,000¼healthrisk
57%Q1-2
Thepoorandvulnerable• Facedifficultiesincomplyingwithquarantine
• Compliancehasitsownrisks– Illness– Violence– Malnutrition
• Sufferdireconsequences– Intheshortterm– Inthelongterm
• Permanenteffectsoftemporaryshocks• (Thatiswhatbeingpoorisallabout)
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COVID-19perse
1. Compliancewithsocialdistancingmeasures:Ø Morelaxamongmorevulnerablepopulations
2. Infectionandfatality:Ø Disproportionatelyhighamongthepoorandvulnerable
o Minoritiesandthepoorareoverrepresented(USA)o Epicentersofcontagionarecorrelatedwithslums(Mumbai)
3. Epidemiologicalexternalities
Externalities:It’smorecostlytoignoresociallyexcludedpopulations
• Inhabitantsofslums,migrants,thehomeless,LGBT– greaterriskofcontagionduetopreexistinghealthconditions– obstaclestoimplementingpreventivemeasures(handwashing)– limitationstocomplyingwithsocialdistancing(overcrowding)– lessaccesstohealthcareservices(includingfearofdeportation)Ø Theybecomenewsourcesofcontagion.
• Example:Singapore– Poster-childincontainingthespreadofthevirus– Resurgenceofvirusduetolackofattentiontomigrantpopulation
Ø “AsharpincreaseinCovid-19casesamongthecountry’smigrantworkerpopulationhasnowforcedthegovernmenttotakedrasticmeasures.OnThursday,Singaporesawitshighestnumberofnewcasesthusfar:728,thevastmajorityofwhichwereamongmigrantworkers.”(WP,Apr16)
RECOMMENDATIONS
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Articulatestrategies:ü Epidemiologicalstrat.ü Economicstrategiesü Socialstrategies
COVID-19Exposesandexacerbatesq Disparities/Inequalitiesq Vulnerabilities
• Epidemiologicalandeconomicexternalities• Humanitarianrisks• Politicalrisks
Ø PRIORITIZEprotectionofmostvulnerablegroupsOBJECTIVES:Preserveq Livesq Livelihoodsq Humancapital
HOW:SpecialfocusØ $(access$,implement)Ø Directactions(beyond$)Ø Focusinordertomake
universalo Complempaccesoy
utilizaciónTakeintoaccountintra-groupheterogeneities
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Implications• Budgetary• Organizational
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Requiresactionsthatareü Urgent&vigorousintheshortterm
(weeks)o Sustainessentialflows/supplyo Anteinamovibles,quirúrgicas
ü Strategicinvestments(months)
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ACTIONSBYLOCALGRASSROOTS
ORGANIZATIONS
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Non-GovernmentalActors
ü Localsynergiesü Iniciativastop
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RECOMMENDATIONS:I.Organizingprinciples
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RECOMMENDATIONS:II.Institutions,ActorsandActions
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RECOMMENDATIONS:II.Institutions,ActorsandActions
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RECOMMENDATIONS:II.Institutions,ActorsandActions
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Addmoneytothisandtakeawayfromotherthings
RECOMMENDATIONS:II.Institutions,ActorsandActions
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Entitychargedwithaddressingthemulti-dimensionalneedsthat
thesepopulationssimultaneouslyface
RECOMMENDATIONS:II.Institutions,ActorsandActions
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Entitychargedwithaddressingthemulti-dimensionalneedsthat
thesepopulationssimultaneouslyface
SINGAPOREFAILEDTODOTHIS
RECOMMENDATIONS:II.Institutions,ActorsandActions
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ü Crucialnon-monetaryinterventionsü Protecting
o humancapitalo livelihoodso livesofthemostvulnerable,
ü thelastmile→localgrassrootsactorsü thosewhoknowwhat’shappeningineverycase
RECOMMENDATIONS:II.Institutions,ActorsandActions
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THISSEQUENCE:isthebestwaytotargetinterventions,givencurrentlevelofstatecapabilities.
Duringthestateofemergency:• Designeffectiveparticipatorycommunicationstrategies• Guaranteeaccesstocleanwater,soapandotherproductsneededtoprevent
infection• Guaranteeaccesstoincome,food,andotheressentialgoods• Ensureinternetconnectivityinmarginalizedareas• Convertspacessuchasschoolsandhotelsintotemporaryhospitalsforisolating
patientswhohavecontractedCovid-19orthosewhoshowsymptoms• DesignstrategiesfortransportingpatientsrequiringspecializedcareAfterthestateofemergency:• ProvidefreeaccesstoCovid-19teststothepoorestandmostvulnerable• Keepopeningnewisolationcenterstoallowpeoplewhomaybeinfectedtobe
secluded• Guaranteeaccesstosafedrinkingwater• Ensureuniversalinternetconnectivityinmarginalizedareas• Provideuniversalaccesstobankservicesanddebitcardstothepoorand
vulnerable
III.SPECIFICRECOMMENDATIONSReduceepidemiologicalrisksofillnessanddeath:
• Accesstoincome,foodandbasicservices– Governmenttransfers– Temporaryemploymentprograms
• Directfooddistribution• Deferraloreliminationofcertaintaxes• Preventcuttingofbasicserviceslikewater,electricityandWi-Fitovulnerable
households• Mitigationofdomesticviolence• Keepeducating• GuaranteeaccesstohealthcareandmedicationsbeyondCovid-19• Attentiontoespeciallyvulnerablegroups:at-riskchildrenandyouth,migrants,the
homeless,sexworkers,andimprisonedpeople
III.SPECIFICRECOMMENDATIONS.Protectinglivelihoods,humancapitalandaccesstobasicservices:
KEYMESSAGES
1. TheCOVID-19pandemicishittingpoorandvulnerablepopulationsthehardestq Healthrisksq Livingconditions
2. Notonlyaffectingthemonetarypoorq Alsomanyotherdeprivations
3. Actionstomitigatetheimpactarecrucialü Ethicalreasonsü Toavoidirreversibleeffectsonhumancapital
ü Externalities§ RaghuramRajan:“Inorderforanywhereintheworldtobesafe,thevirushastobedefeatedeverywhere”
4. Effectiveresponseswillrequire:Ø Resources(BUDGETARYPRIORITY)Ø Vigorous,focusedandwell-implementedactions(POLITICALANDINSTITUTIONALPRIORITY)–
Notjustfinancialtransfers
5. Althoughgovernmentsmustplayacentralrole….Ø Collaborationoflocalgrassrootsorganizations(NGOs,etc.)isalsocrucial
THANKYOU
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