1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 in New Mexico: Epidemiologic and Modeling
UpdateJuly 7, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
New Mexico has the 32nd highest prevalence in the United States
As of July 7, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 prevalence per 100,000 population
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 7.5.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.
2774.0
166.3379.7
236.6
622.1 630.7
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Case
s pe
r 100
,000
Pop
ulat
ion
Year-to-Date
138.7
18.0
49.2
63.572.7
60.6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Last 7 Days
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 7.7.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
New Mexico COVID-19 Cases by Date of Specimen Collection – 7/7/20
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Statewide R-effective has stayed steady at about 1.2 for the past 2 weeks.
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – July 7, 2020.
1.2
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Northeast R_effective 1.1 ↓
MetroR_effective 1.3 ↓
Southeast R_effective 1.3 ↓
SouthwestR_effective 1.4 ↑
NorthwestR_effective 0.8 ↓
Low Level Endemic <1.0
Approaching Low Level Endemic1.0-1.05
Requiring further mitigation >1.05
Key
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – July 7, 2020.
As of June 29, 2020
Region R-effective 95% Confidence Interval
State 1.2 [0.8, 1.6]
Metro 1.3 [0.6, 2.0]
Northeast 1.1 [0.0, 3.4]
Northwest 0.8 [0.0, 1.8]
Southeast 1.3 [0.3, 2.7]
Southwest 1.4 [0.6, 2.4]
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Only the Northwest region currently has decreasing growth.
↑ Increasing case counts
↓ Decreasing case counts
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Percent Positive Tests
June 23 – July 6June 9 – June 22
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 7.6.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 7.7.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Metro Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average – July 7, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 7.7.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Northeast Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average – July 7, 2020Positive samples collected during this
time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 7.7.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Northwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average – July 7, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 7.7.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Southeast Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average – July 7, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 7.7.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
50
100
150
200
250
Southwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageJuly 7, 2020
Without Detention Centers Detention Center 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Without Detention Centers)
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
El Paso, TX has had a significant spike in cases over the last few weeks
>150 cases confirmed near the border with NM (as of July 5, 2020)Source: http://epstrong.org/results.php
Day by day cases (as of July 2, 2020)
El Paso County cases by zip code• Recent triple-digit spikes in daily cases: 248 on 7/6
• Total cases: 7,461 of which 4,546 are recoveredo Additional cases in existing clusters in a detention facility and
an elderly care facilityo 218 cases hospitalized of which 28 are on ventilators
• Effective 7/2, Governor Greg Abbott mandated face coveringso Commercial entity or other building or any public spaceo Attending a protest or demonstration involving more than 10
people.o In an outdoor space, face covering is required only if social
distancing (6 ft) cannot be maintained.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Hospitalization rates continue to increase across all regions with the largest increase in the NW
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 7.6.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.
491.6
17.7 35.110.6
38.479.8
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
June 29, 2020
516.4
18.738.2
14.743.5
85.5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
July 6, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Hospitalizations are declining, and ventilator use remains ~30%
As of July 2, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 deaths are declining
1 112111
211
21
4
2
45
1
6
3
77
45
1
5
99
766
910
8
5
1011
14
10
5
8
10
1213
88
12
10
89
676
34
6
8
10
8
3
676
910
555
7
434
6
1
6
454
65
32
6
2
5
2
8
1
5
1
33
12122
34
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
163/
23
3/30 4/
6
4/13
4/20
4/27 5/
4
5/11
5/18
5/25 6/
1
6/8
6/15
6/22
6/29
Cum
ulat
ive
Num
ber o
f Dea
ths
Dai
ly N
umbe
r of D
eath
s
Cumulative Deaths
Reporting through 7/3/2020
511
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Case fatality rates (CFR) across regions have changed minimally since last week
Rates have been age-adjusted to U.S. COVID-19 cases.Source: Bureau of Vital Records and Health Statistics and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division, reporting through 7.5.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7.2%
1.6%
4.9%
1.2%
2.8%
5.6%
4.7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Northwest Northeast Metro Southeast Southwest New Mexico U.S.
Case
Fat
ality
Rat
e (a
ge-a
djus
ted)
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Male CFR continues to be greater than female CFR
6.8%
4.6%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
M F
Perc
enta
geCOVID-19 Age-Adjusted* Case Fatality Rate by Gender, New Mexico
Reporting through 7/3/2020; *Adjusted to U.S. COVID-19 cases.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 deaths among those infected disproportionately affect the American Indian/Alaska Native population
7.0%
2.2%2.8%
4.3%
0.0%
4.6%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
AIAN Asian Black/AfAm Hispanic NHOPI White
Perc
enta
ge
COVID-19 Age-Adjusted* Case Fatality Rate by Race/Ethnicity, New Mexico
Reporting through 7/3/2020; *Adjusted to U.S. COVID-19 cases.
AIAN: American Indian/Alaskan NativeNHOPI: Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Males have a higher CFR compared to females across most race/ethnicity groups
9.2%
5.4%
0.0%
3.6%
0.0%
5.9% 5.8%
3.2%
0.0% 0.0%
5.1%4.5%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
AIAN Asian Black/AfAm Hispanic NHOPI White
Perc
enta
ge
Reporting through 7/3/2020; *Adjusted to U.S. COVID-19 cases. AIAN: American Indian/Alaskan NativeNHOPI: Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Males who self-identify as American Indian/Alaska Native or Hispanic have the greatest years of potential life lost (YPLL) before age 65. Male YPLL is higher than that of their female counterparts within these two race/ethnicity groups.
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
MaleW
hite
Hisp
anic
Blac
k/Af
AmAs
ian/
NHO
PIAI
AN
Years Lost Due to Early DeathReporting through 7/3/2020
AIAN: American Indian/Alaskan NativeNHOPI: Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Higher CFRs for cases with pre-existing conditions and is exacerbated if hospitalized. Sex differences indicate high rates in males compared to females regardless of pre-existing conditions.
5.2%
2.9%1.9%
0.7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Male Female Male Female
Pre-existing Conditions No Pre-existing Conditions
Not Hospitalized
20.8%
15.3%
11.6%
5.1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Male Female Male Female
Pre-existing Conditions No Pre-existing Conditions
Hospitalized
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
New Mexico Status Updates
• Case count: Statewide, daily case counts are increasing.
• Hospitalizations: For the past three weeks, hospitalizations have declined.
• Deaths: Deaths have been steadily declining since mid-May.
• Social distancing: Cell phone data suggests the mobility of New Mexico is on the rise and, in some counties, is reaching pre-pandemic levels.
• Contact tracing: The median time to quarantine for contacts identified last week was 2 days.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Supplementary Slides
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Modeling Assumptions
Variable Measured Value Value as of 6.29.20
R_Effective Actual Measured Daily Value by key county
R_eff=1.21
Positive Test Multiplier Calculated by LANL 4.1
Hospitalization and Mortality Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected
Medical 0.2% ICU 0.2%Vent Rate 63.5% of ICUCrude Case Fatality Rate 4.1%
Length of Stay Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected
Medical 5 daysICU 14 days ICU on Vent 14 days