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The Afghan-Pakistan War:A Status Report: 2009A Brief Summary
Anthony H. Cordesman
Arleigh A. Burke Chair in StrategyWith the Assistance of Nicholas B. Greenough
August 12, 2009
1800 K Street, NWSuite 400
Washington, DC 20006
Phone: 1.202.775.3270Fax: 1.202.775.3199
Web:
www.csis.org/burke/reports
http://www.csis.org/burke/reportshttp://www.csis.org/burke/reports -
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Afghanistan- IED Incident Trends-
All Targets (U)
JIEDDO July 2009
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ANA Readiness: July 2009
SIGAR, p. 54.
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Narcotics Contraband Seized and Destroyed
January-May 2008 vs. 2009
Progress toward Security and Stability in Security and Stability in Afghanistan, Department of Defense, June 2009, Page
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2009 Expected Opium Cultivation
Levels Compared to 2008
Progress toward Security and Stability in Security and Stability in Afghanistan, Department of Defense, June 2009, Page
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ANP Readiness: May 2009
SIGAR, p. 549.
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Security Summary (April 2009)
HQ ISAF Strategic Advisory Group Unclassified Metrics April 2009.
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Monthly Civilian Casualties
January 2007-May 2009
Progress toward Security and Stability in Security and Stability in Afghanistan, Department of Defense, June 2009, Page 25
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Insurgent initiated Attacks
October 2008-May 2009
Progress toward Security and Stability in Security and Stability in Afghanistan, Department of Defense, June 2009, Page 22
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Terrorist Incidents in Iraq and
Afghanistan: 2005-2008:
Office of the Coordinator for
Counterterrorism,Country Reports onTerrorism 2008 April 2009, United States
Department of State, Released April 2009, p.
348 .
i f i S f i
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Pakistan conflict map: Spread of Taliban
Source: BBC, Map shows Pakistan Taliban spread and Pakistan conflict map, May 13, 2009.
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HQ ISAF Strategic Advisory Group Unclassified Metrics May 2009.
Military Deaths
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Insurgent Attacks
HQ ISAF Strategic Advisory Group Unclassified Metrics May 2009.
A D il
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HQ ISAF Strategic Advisory Group Unclassified Metrics May 2009.
Average Daily
Insurgent Initiated Attacks
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Civilian Causalities: Jan-Jun 2007, 2008 &
2009
Afghanistan Mid Year Bulletin on Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict,United Nations Assistance Mission to Afghanistan, Human Rights Unit, 2009, Page 4
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ABC/BBC/ARD Poll: At Least Some Support
for the Taliban : 2007 versus 2009/2
Source: Gary Langer, Director of Polling, ABC News, Afghanistan: Where Things Stand, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, CSIS Feb. 11, 2009
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 20% 44% 41%
2009-2 22% 57% 64%
Nationwide Southwest Kandahar
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ABC/BBC/ARD Poll: Afghan Views of
the US: 2005-2009-2
Source: Gary Langer, Director of Polling, ABC News, Afghanistan: Where Things Stand, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, CSIS Feb. 11, 2009
83%
74%
65%
47%
14%
25%
32%
52%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
10/18/05 10/19/06 11/7/07 20/2/09
Favorable
Unfavorable
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Source: ABC/BBC/ARD poll Afghanistan: Where things stand, poll of a random sample 1,534 Afghans in all 34 of the countrys provinces;, February 9, 2009
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19Source: ABC/BBC/ARD poll Afghanistan: Where things stand, poll of a random sample 1,534 Afghans in all 34 of the countrys
provinces;, February 9, 2009
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ABC/BBC/ARD Poll: Conditions in Your
Area -Good? 2009-2
Source: Gary Langer, Director of Polling, ABC News, Afghanistan: Where Things Stand, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, CSIS Feb. 11, 2009
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2009-2 77% 65% 63% 51% 42% 29% 19%
Schools Water FoodMedical
care
Roads &
Bridges
Economy Electricity
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Economy & Essential Services
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Increase in ISAF troop levels
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ABC/BBC/ARD Poll: Biggest Danger to
Afghanistan : 2-2009
Source: Gary Langer, Director of Polling, ABC News, Afghanistan: Where Things Stand, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, CSIS Feb. 11, 2009
58%
13%8%
7% 1%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
. 58% 13% 8% 7% 1%
TalibanDrug
TraffickersUnitedStates
LocalCommander
s
AfghanGovernment
Among other violence, a quarter report car bombs or suicide attacks in their area inthe past year; three in 10, kidnappings for ransom. Thirty-eight percent reportcivilian casualties in the past year, attributed about equally either toU.S./NATO/ISAF or to anti- government forces, and somewhat less so to Afghan
government forces. Given these and their many other challenges, the number ofAfghans who expect their lives to improve in the year ahead has dropped from a
peak of 67 percent in 2005 to 51 percent today. And just under half, 47 percent,expect a better life for their children, hardly a ringing endorsement of the countrysprospects. The resurgence of the Taliban is a key element of the public alarm: Fifty-
eight percent of Afghans see the Taliban as the biggest danger to the country,measured against local warlords, drug traffickers or the U.S. or Afghangovernments. And 43 percent say the Taliban have grown stronger in the past year,well more than the 24 percent who think the movement has weakened.
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ABC/BBC/ARD Poll: Who Afghans Mainly
Blame for Violence: 2007 vs. 2009-2
Source: Gary Langer, Director of Polling, ABC News, Afghanistan: Where Things Stand, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, CSIS Feb. 11, 2009
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
US, ISAF, Afghan Gov 26% 36%
Taiiban 36% 27%
2007 2009-2
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ABC/BBC/ARD Poll: Most Likely
Outcome of War
Source: Gary Langer, Director of Polling, ABC News, Afghanistan: Where Things Stand, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, CSIS Feb. 11, 2009
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
33% 33% 19% 8%
Afghan Gov'tWill Win
Both SidesNegotiate
Fighting Will GoOn
Taliban Will Win
T t l C lti I Af h i t
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Total Casualties: Iraq vs. AfghanistanThrough January 3, 2009
* Non-hostile deaths includes: Accident, Illness, self-inflicted, undetermined, and pending.
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Triage: The Nexta Twelve Months in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Andrew M. Exum, Nathaniel C. Fick, Ahmed A. Humayun,
David J. Kilcullen, June 2009, Page 11
Deaths from Terrorism: 2007 vs. 2008
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ANA, ANP, ISAF Military Deaths
UN Accessibility Map 2008
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UN Accessibility Map 2008
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Cross Border Raids from Pakistan to Eastern
Afghanistan: First Six Months of 2007 vs. 2008
USA Today, July 30, 2008, p. 6: Triton Report, HMS..
OverallAttacks Up
40% OverSame Period
in 2007
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Senlis, Stumbling into Chaos,
Afghanistan on the Brink,
November 2007, p. 26.