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B SAI KUMAR SWAMYPGPM, I IM-BANGALORE
Current Affairs Update -International
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Agenda-1 Japan Economic Woes Lost Decades Abenomics
Hong Kong Pro-democracy protests
China Territorial disputes in
East China Sea South China Sea
Thailand Shinawatras Army Unrest Elections
Myanmar Sri Lanka Elections Implications
North Korea Nuclear State Personality Cults Rogue State
Iran Nuclear Status Sanctions
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Japan
Meiji Restoration - Nuclear war - Economic powerhouse High Tech Export focussed - High Savings Rate - GDP Asset Price Bubble 1985-1989
Lost decade 90s Increase in Interest Rates - Zombie Banks - Low growth rates Fiscal Stimulus - Government Debt More than 220% of GDP
Population declines Demographic Inversion - Growing Greys Declining Support Ratio Issues with marriage
India & China Womens roles (oniyome) Immigration Sustainable resource use
(Bloomberg) Political Instability
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Abenomics
Shinzo Abe Elected in 2006 Resigns in 2007 PM again in 2012
Abenomics Three Arrows 1st Arrow Monetary Policy 2nd Arrow Fiscal Policy 3rd Arrow Structural Reforms Role of BoJ
Inflation Target 2% Public Works Tax Incentive for Companies
Massive QE
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Three Arrows
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Three Arrows of Abenomics
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Three Arrows & the Shrine Effect
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Positive Cycle Japan Economy
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Hong Kong Pro-democracy Protests
Status of Hong Kong? British Colony 99 year lease 1st July 1898 Prospered under the British To revert to China in 1997
Relationship with China? One country 2 systems High degree of autonomy except Foreign & Defence Affairs Own legal system Free speech & Assembly HK mini constitution called the Basic Law Chief Executive Elected by 1200 member Election Committee
What has changed? Chinas promise of direct elections in 2017 Aug 2014 Voters to have a choice of 2-3 candidates selected by NC Current Election Committee to form NC 50% of NC support required
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Umbrella Movement
Fears China will use NC to screen out candidates it disapproves of HK will lose the freedom it enjoys turn into mainland
Who is leading the Pro-democracy debate? Occupy Central Hong Kong Federation of Students - Scholarism
Umbrella movement Adam Cotton on Twitter Non violent civil disobedience Street protests Occupy Government buildings
Is there a Pro-China movement? YES Silent Majority for HK; Caring HK Power
Why is China worried? Xinjiang Tibet HK - Tiananmen
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Chief Executive Leung Chun-Ying
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Election Committee
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One Country Two Systems
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Sea of Umbrellas Alex Chow & Joshua Wong
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Movement in Pics
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Movement in Pics
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Occupy Central
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What angered China? Universal Suffrage
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Dont miss the moment!!
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Other Issues & Pro-China Protests
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East China Sea - Disputes Where East China Sea
Senkaku Diaoyu Tiaoyutai Socotra Rock
What EEZ
China South Korea and Japan What about Taiwan?
UN Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) East China Sea is 360 Nm wide 200Nm is the EEZ (370Km)
Why Fishing grounds Shipping Route Discovery of Natural Resources
Chunxiao Gas Field
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EEZ World Chart
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EEZ Overlaps & Disputes
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Senkaku
Archipelago 5 islands & 3 Rocky crags Senkaku Diaoyu Tiaoyutai Rich fishing grounds Shipping Oil reserves Fishing Agreements Senkaku outside of Chinese EEZ
Controlled by Japan since 1895 Treaty of Shimonoseki Terra Nullius 1945-1972 USA after WWII Treaty of San Francisco
China disputes Terra Nullius status Returned as was done of all conquests in 1945 US Japan Security Treaty
Japan purchases remaining 3 islands in 2012 Shinzo Abe vows to defend Senkaku at all costs
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Overlapping EEZ - Senkaku
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Disputed Areas
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Air-Zone Demarcation
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Senkaku
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Senkaku - Japan Taiwan
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Face-Off
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Socotra Rock
Socotra Ieodo/Parangdo Suyan Rock 149Kms from South Korea 287Kms from China China stakes claim after UN changes in EEZ in 1996
Korea has built the Ieodo Ocean Research Station Importance Korean Myths Discovery of Natural Gas & Oil Fishing grounds
Current Status Korea has included it in its EEZ ADIZ status over Socotra by Korea and China
Japan has maintained a neutral stance on it Potential flashpoint on account of ADIZ Jeju Naval Base
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Ieodo
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Other claimants!
South Korea Dokdo Takeshima
46 Acres Natural resources Fishing
Tsushima Naming of Sea of Japan
North Korea Taiwan Methane Hydrates
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Methane Hydrates
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Dokdo / Takeshima
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South China Sea - Disputes Two broad disputes Paracel Spratlys
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South China Sea - Disputes
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South China Sea - Disputes
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Paracel
Paracel Vietnam & Taiwan & China
Amphitrite (North) China Crescent (South) South
Vietnam Pre 1974
1957 Transfer to China China claims Paracel
1974 Vietnam attacks China responds
Occupies entire Paracel Post 1974
Vietnam Unification Claims afresh
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Spratlys Claimants China Taiwan Philippines Brunei Vietnam Malaysia
Reasons Hydrocarbons Fishing Shipping
Current Status China, Philippines 8 each Vietnam 29 & Malaysia 5 Brunei 2 & Taiwan 1
2011 Agreement INS Airavat Taiwan, Tibet, South China Sea
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Scarborough Shoal Claimants China Phillippines Taiwan
China 870Km
Philippines 210 Km EEZ
Reason Fishing primarily Hydrocarbons
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Scarborough Shoal
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Scarborough Shoal
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Dispute Meter
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China territorial disputes China Neighbors 14 (land) 8 (Sea) Many disputes over land & sea Taiwan (Republic of China)
Chinese Civil War KMT CPC Paracel islands Vietnam Battle of Paracel Islands 1974 Spratlys Vietnam, Phillipines, Brunei, Malaysia
1968 Oil discovery Bigger than Kuwait North Korea
Yalu River India
Aksai Chin South Tibet - Arunachal Pradesh
TAR Tibet Annexed in 1950 Autonomous status Dalai Lama China Western Development
70% Area 30% Population 20% GDP Mongolia
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Thailand Monarchy King Bhumibhol
History 1932 Coup - Military rule Constitution redrafting - 1997
2001 Elections Thaksin Shinawatra - Popular
2006 Deposed 2008-2011 Unrest Yingluck Shinawatra - 2011
Military Coup 22nd May 2014 Why? Anti-Govt protests Lack of confidence Prayuth Chan Ocha
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Prayuth Chan Ocha Yingluck Shinawatra
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Myanmar Elections
Myanmar (1989) Burma Oil & Natural Gas 1962 Coup Ne Win Human rights violations
Genocide Child soldiers Rape Slavery Trafficking Curbs on Free Speech Aung San Suu Kyi Aung Sans daughter - Fighting for democracy Freedom from Fear Speech
"It is not power that corrupts, but fear. Fear of losing power corrupts those whowield it and fear of the scourge of power corrupts those who are subject to it.
1988 8888 UprisingNational League for Democracy - House arrest 1989 1990 General Elections Won by NLD Nullified by military junta 1991 Nobel Peace Prize
2007 Saffron Revolution 1st April 2012 By-elections NLD wins 43 of 46 seats
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Sri Lanka - Elections Incumbent Mahinda Rajapakse SLFP 6 yr term Max 2 terms Constitutional Changes 2 term limit removed
Opponent Maithripala Sirisena Common Opposition candidate
Result Sirisena victory 51% of vote Pro-India
Media Abuse - Violence Misuse of state resources Indian Influence Attempted Coup
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Elections
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Sahodara Samagama - Family Nepotism Sahodara Samagama Brothers Organization
Chamal Rajapaksa Speaker
Basil Rajapaksa Brains Minister Eco. Devpt. & Adviser
Gotabaya Rajapaksa Brawn Defence Secretary
Namal Rajapaksa 29years Son of Mahinda MP Hambanthota
Nishantha Wickremasinghe Chairman SL Airways
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North Korea - 1 Political Korean empire ruled peninsula in 18th-19th century Japanese occupation 1910-1945 Division of peninsula into North Korea & South Korea Korean War -1950-1953
China UN USA Unification of country 38th parallel Single party state
Juche - man is the master of everything and decides everything Hereditary Dictatorship Total Control Zones Camp 22 Personality Cult
Kim Il Sung Chosen by Stalin - KPA Tenure 6 SK; 7 Russian; 10 US; 14 UK; 21 Japan Communism East Germany; Romania; Albania Collapse of Communism Isolation of Nkorea Great Leader Son of the Nation - Eternal President
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North Korea - 2
North South Relations Demilitarized Zone Incursion Tunnels
2000 Peaceful Reunification NorthSouth Joint Declaration Kim Dae Jung - Kim Jong-Il Sunshine Policy Nobel Peace Prize 2000 for Kim Dae Jung
Ended in 2006 over Nuclear Tests Declared failure in 2010 Cheonan incident 2010
Nuclear Power Economy Shortages - State Controlled Cuba & North Korea Famine in 1997 Deaths of millions Kim Jong-Un Calls for lifting sanctions
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Personality Cult
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Personality Cult
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Iran Nuclear Stand0ff Nuclear Program Atoms for Peace Dwight Eisenhower in 1953 Signed NPT in 1968 Allows IAEA inspections
Peaceful Energy Program Shah plans for a nuclear Iran Disbanded in 1979 by Ayatollah after Iranian revolution
Nuclear Supply cut Bushehr reactor 50-85% complete Nuclear Program Restarted Cooperation with Argentina South Africa China Pakistan
Persepolis 1990 Russian Cooperation 1992 Invites IAEA inspectors Revives Bushehr project 1995
Natanz & Arak IAEA seeks access to facilities EU3 2006 Iran enriches Uranium 2010 Iran is a Nuclear State Sanctions Oil Embargo - Conflict
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Annexures
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Japan - Exports
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Savings Rate & GDP
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Japan - Population
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Demographic Inversion
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Population Pyramid India & China
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Reasons for not marrying
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Growing Greys
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Support Ratio
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Juche Tower Kim Il Sung
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Personality Cult
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Camp 22 NASA image Korea
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Tunnels & DMZ
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Cheonan
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Chinas Territorial Disputes
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China - Taiwan
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Taiwan
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Chiang Kai-Shek
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Paracel Islands
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Spratlys
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Yalu North Korea
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India Aksai Chin
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McMahon - TAR
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TAR
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Mt. Everest
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Qinghai Tibet Railway
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China Western Development
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Burma Land of Pagodas
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Aung San Suu Kyi
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Protests by Monks
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Saffron Revolution
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Atoms for Peace
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Shah Plan 23 Nuclear plants Target year 2000 US aid
"Petroleum is a noblematerial, much toovaluable to burn ... Weenvision producing, assoon as possible, 23,000megawatts of electricityusing nuclear plants.
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Iran Nuclear Sites
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Women Scientists EU3 Yellowcake
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Arak - Natanz
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Natanz
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Irans Oil Exports
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Straits of Hormuz Choke Point
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Nuclear States