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HR PUBLIC POLICY / WASHINGTON OUTLOOK
113TH CONGRESS & OBAMA ADMINISTRATION
Government Affairs CLA Webinar
Michael P. Aitken, Vice President, SHRM Government AffairsOctober 9, 2013
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EnvironmentAmericans See Current Shutdown as More Serious Than in 1995
October 4, 2013
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Presidency
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President Obama Job Approval
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Congress
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Congress’ Job Approval Falls to 11% Amid Government Shutdown
October 7, 2013
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Shutdowns (Mostly) Shortened After Legal Interpretation Changed
Source: Clinton T. Brass, “Shutdown of the Federal Government: Causes, Processes, and Effects,” Congressional Research Service, Aug. 6, 2013; Pete Williams, “This would be 18th government shutdown in U.S. History,” NBC News, April 8, 2011.
Analysis• Between 1976 and 1979, the government shut down 6 times for an average of 11 days each time• A 1980 ruling by then-Attorney General Benjamin Civiletti provided a more strict interpretation of the Antideficiency Act as it relates to
shutdowns, raising the stakes; between 1981-1990, shutdowns were still frequent, but shorter, averaging 3 days in length • A showdown between President Bill Clinton and Republican Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich led to a 5-day shutdown in Nov. 1995
and a 21-day shutdown between Dec. 1995 and Jan. 1996, with an estimated $1.4 billion price tag; since then, the government has tried to avoid another costly, politically perilous shutdown.
Length, in Days, of Government Shutdowns Since 1976
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Tax and Benefits
Fiscal Train Wreck:• Federal Government shut down on October 1.• Better than anticipated deficit outlook but debt ceiling will be reached
in the next few weeks (Mid October to October, 31).• Sequestration for 2014 will trigger $109 billion worth of cuts this year
in both discretionary and mandatory spending.
Possible Outcomes:• Short-term deal that leads to a “Grand Bargain” or federal
budget/debt deal• Long-term deal that includes a “Grand Bargain” or federal
budget/debt deal• No Deal = Default and financial chaos
2013 Fall Public Policy AgendaOverview
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The Debt Ceiling Crisis, as the Titanic
TakeawayThe 2013 debt ceiling crisis puts hundreds of federal programs and benefits in danger of delayed or discontinued funding,
and puts the U.S. at risk of a credit downgrade.
Treasury Defaults Unprecedented default could
cause value of dollar to drop and freeze credit markets
Debt Ceiling
Extraordinary Measures FailBetween October 18 and November 5, Treasury predicts it will have exhausted
extraordinary measures
Treasury
Treasury
Federal Programs Rely on Limited Cash and Daily Revenue to Survive
Treasury not prepared to fund all programs with these reserves, but no “women and children first” protocol is in place
Sources: Congressional Research Service, 2013; Annie Lowrey, “Shutdown vs. Default: The Relative Impact,” The New York Times, September 23, 2013; Jake Sherman, “Jack Lew: Debt Limit
No Later Than Oct. 17,” Politico, September 25, 2013.
Treasury Able to Fund Federal ProgramsEarlier this year Treasury had sufficient funds to keep federal
programs and benefits afloat
U.S. Hits Debt CeilingThe U.S. hit its $16.7 billion debt ceiling in May, but Treasury has been able to stay the course by relying — temporarily —
on “extraordinary measures”
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Budget Primer: Spending Tax and Benefit Issues
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Long Term Deal Might Include:
• Tax Reform • Entitlement Reform• Delay in PPACA• Extension of the debt limit• Federal budget funding for 2014
2013 Fall Public Policy Agenda Overview
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Passing New Immigration Law is Important to AmericansJuly 11, 2013
Overview
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Immigration Reform
President named “Comprehensive Immigration Reform” as one of his top five priorities.
Current environment still presents the best chance of comprehensive immigration reform in over 30 years however; other domestic/international issues will likely push final resolution to next year.
Senate passed the comprehensive Border Security, Economic Opportunity and Immigration Modernization Act in June.
Slim hope for a Bipartisan “Group of 5” in the House to move a comprehensive bill but House more likely to consider a series of “focused” bills late fall.
The SHRM/ACIP partnership is part of the dialogue and advocacy effort.
2013 Fall Public Policy AgendaOverview
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Labor and Employment
Obama and Congressional Democrats have advocated for increasing the minimum wage and passing the Paycheck Fairness Act although major labor-management legislation unlikely to move through Congress.
However, agency activity has increased at DOL and we anticipate activity from EEOC. Regulatory activity in 2013 includes:
• Final Affirmative Action Regulations – 503/ Veterans• DOL proposed a survey on worker misclassification• Proposed Persuader Regulation• Implementation of SEP by EEOC
Full NLRB Board will mean increased regulatory activity:
• Quickie Election Rule ??? / Specialty Health Care / D.R. Horton
2013 Fall Public Policy Agenda
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Overview
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2013 Fall Public Policy Agenda
Workplace Flexibility
Advocates continue to push expansion of FMLA/paid sick leave at state and local level but enactment at federal level impossible.
Obama Administration’s focus on workflex will continue. Successful efforts on “comp time” in the House unlikely to
translate to the Senate.
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Overview
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2013 Fall Public Policy Agenda
Health Care Reform
Efforts to delay regulatory or amend PPACA legislatively in 2013 may be more possible.
Congressional oversight and regulatory guidance continues. Tax-deferred status of health care benefits could become a
target in tax reform. Focus on implementation on individual enrollment that
began on October 1.
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Overview
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Health Care Reform Issues
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Two in Three Uninsured Americans Plan to Buy InsuranceHealth Care Reform Issues
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Michael P. AitkenVice President, Government Affairs
+1-703-535-6027
1800 Duke StreetAlexandria, VA 22314
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