Download - Dealing with North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons
Dealing with North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons
Six Party Talks simulation briefing
Nuclear Proliferation• Spread of nuclear weapons
to new countries• Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty (NPT)– Rules on who can have
nuclear weapons– International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA) monitored• Mixed record
The Central Issue• North Korea’s Nuclear
Weapons program• Plutonium Program
– Estimated to have enough material for 3-15 bombs
– Test proves weaponization• How much do they have?
– Existing Reactors actively producing more fissile material
• Highly Enriched Uranium Program– Secret program disclosed in
2002
Central Issue• North Korea has other
threatening programs as well– ICBMs– 1,000,000+ man army– Artillery surrounds
Seoul– Chemical and
Biological Weapons– Counterfeit currency– Smuggling
• Willing to sell?
Central Issue• North Korea is very poor and in desperate need
of assistance
History• 1994 Crisis
– DPRK leaves NPT, kicks out IAEA inspectors
– De-fuels Yongboyng reactor– US engages in bi-lateral
negotiations– War Scare, Jimmy Carter
intervenes– Agreed Framework
• DPRK trades nuclear program for economic and energy assistance
• Sequential deal– KEDO
• Multi-national group to build 2 LWR in North
• Japan, South Korea pay most of the bill
History• Sunshine Policy
– South engages North• 1998 Missile Test• Failed deal in 2000
– Albright visits, no deal reached
• 2002 Kelly Mission– US outs HEU program– NK claims to have a bomb
• Axis of Evil Speech• Move to Six Party Talks
Parties
• North Korea• South Korea• China• Japan• Russia• USA
Six Party Talks• First 3 rounds end with
no progress• 2005: Round 4 of talks
– Supposed agreement to trade nuclear reactors for security agreements and assistance
– Deal falls apart days after its announced
• July 2006: North Korea tests Taepodong-2 and several short-range missiles
Nuclear Test• October 2006: North
Korea conducts a nuclear test– 8th declared nuclear
power– Outrage from
international community• Policy Challenges
– Non-proliferation to counter-proliferation
– Conventional deterrence to nuclear deterrence
Questionable Assumptions• The North’s Pending Economic Collapse?
– Things keep getting worse but the regime is still in power
• The North’s (and Kim Jong Il’s) Rationality?– Rational or irrational actors?
• Nuclear issue at the top of the agenda?– Missiles, HR, conventional arms, abducted citizens,
humanitarian crisis• Multilateral or Bilateral?
– Who can actually cut a deal?– Who actually has influence and is willing to use it?
The Road Ahead• Limited leverage• High cost of conflict• Status of February
2007 agreement?• Can we live with a
Nuclear North Korea?– What price are you
willing to pay for counter-proliferation?
– What signal does this send to other nuclear-aspiring nations?
Your Goal• Simulation of the Six Party Talks• Country Teams
– Assigned Monday, work together in class next week• Opening Session Monday 6 August
– PowerPoint Presentations to the group• Negotiations Friday 10 August
– Time to arrange meetings and craft an agreement• http://nw08.american.edu/~phoward/sixpartytalks.htm