Download - Economic Bloggers Survey Q1 2010v12
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8/14/2019 Economic Bloggers Survey Q1 2010v12
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Kauffman Economic OutlookA QuArterly Survey o leAding economicS BloggerS
i r S t Q u A r t e r 2010
www.kaa.
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8/14/2019 Economic Bloggers Survey Q1 2010v12
2/20
Kauffman Economic Outlook
A QuArterly Survey o leAding economicS BloggerS
in partnership with Palgraves Econolog.net
s Qa, 2010
T i m K a n eSenior Fellow
ew ma Kaa a
ba 2010
www.kaa.
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8/14/2019 Economic Bloggers Survey Q1 2010v12
3/20
introduction
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ss a Kaa e ok: A Qa S tp es Bs.
ths aa s was -Jaa 2010 b s p a h p
200 s bs ak b Paas e.. t qss a s pa
qss w s a wh a ssh ba ass, whh s:
rb X. c . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .I, Cringely
Ba dl. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Grasping Reality
la Ha. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Palgrave Econolog
S Jaw . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Marketplace Scratch Pad
Pa Ksk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Infectious Greed
l Ks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Knowledge Problem
d a m a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .DMarron.com
mak P . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Carpe Diem
Wa rsh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Xconomy.com
As Sha . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .FreeExchange
nk Shz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Enterprise Blog
ys Sh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Naked Capitalism
Ax tabak . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Marginal Revolution
mak tha . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Economists View
Kaa e ok A S tp es Bs [2010 Q1]
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hs s, da ma (a.) hp s qss ab h u.S. b
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p). th k ps s a a bh sp, wh ps x bw
ba s (36 p) a (26 p).
Policy Recomm endaTions
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as a a a a sk s (57 p). tw ps s shap wh a-
as pps: as bsss a (9 p) a as as (4 p).
Kaa e ok A S tp es Bs [2010 Q1]
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o axa, h pa was w a w axs pas (74 p) a
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Ah 26 p a ss. th a 36 p bh:
sa h sh- wh sas - s.
Kaa e ok A S tp es Bs [2010 Q1]
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Wh a wh a ps h b f, h sp s a s
p ab a h ps: sp ma a ma (60 p sa
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BloggeRs RePoRT caRd
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wh ss spp ia (57 p) a h epa u (55 p). th b spss a
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bs hss, whh a az.
Kaa e ok A S tp es Bs [2010 Q1]
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h t r t t u.s. rt ?
i t u.s. bttr r r t rt ttt ?
S aw
Wak ass
a ssmxS wha wh
WsSaB
u.S. economic Per ormAnce
Kaa e ok A S tp es Bs [2010 Q1]
-5-
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2%
6%
45%
48%
5%
59%
23%
10%
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wt r t prpt r t t r r t xt tr r?
Scale: 1.0 = increasing strongly, -1.0 = decreasing strongly
u . S . e c o n o m i c P e r o r m A n c e
Kaa e ok A S tp es Bs [2010 Q1]
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-0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
dr s ir
wt r t t tt xt r t :
A apa epsv apa Sabssss
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ia
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ep
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i qa
Sk ak
cpss
maa
ta f
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
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i t u.s. r rt t t u.s. ?
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u.S. economic Po licy
Kaa e ok A S tp es Bs [2010 Q1]
-7-
h r t prr t rzt ttt? (a = bt, f = )
cBo, gAo, ah wahs
(gPA 2.3)
u.S. ars(gPA 1.7)
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Wa Sfs
(gPA 1.2)
u.S. css(gPA 0.7)
W Bak /im
(gPA 1.6)
A
B
c
d
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
71%
12%
17%
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T u.s. r rt ... (t r r)
u . S . e c o n o m i c P o l i c y
Kaa e ok A S tp es Bs [2010 Q1]
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ias hh sk a
ias a a (a sk s)
P w f a
ias faa a
ias a sp
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ras bas aa a
gas
cab
csp
ia
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ps
Pas
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m
Sa
lss
25%
25%
0%
0%
50%
50%
75%
75% 100%
63%
57%
48%
41%
33%
20%
9%
4%
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i r t trt p rt tt b pkr rt,
t r t tr k rb t ?
u . S . e c o n o m i c P o l i c y
Kaa e ok A S tp es Bs [2010 Q1]
-9-
Ha apa
ia
e
epshp
is (phsa apa)
Pp hs
r aw
oh (pas sp)
Sa
25%0% 50% 75%
s t trtr r tx rt b ttr, bt t , r r prr?
ederAl tAX rAte
Structure
47%
a
27%
Ab h sa
26%
m pss
58%
54%
51%
43%
42%
38%
34%
9%
6%
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h iprtt t r t t t u.s. ?
u . S . e c o n o m i c P o l i c y
Kaa e ok A S tp es Bs [2010 Q1]
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eps
ia
a
ea
B bsss
maa
lab s
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%0%
v pa (bfa)
Swha pa
upa
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at t bt-t-gdP rt t k rb. ar t t omB, r bt 33 prt gdP 1980, 58 prt 2000, 70 prt 2008, tt t b r 90 prt 2009.
at t tk t dbt/gdP rt b ptb rk t t u.s. ?
Kaa e ok A S tp es Bs [2010 Q1]
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Rt rprt t tt u.s. pkr bt t t bt t tt gdP jb rt. w cr t Prt pz r 2010?
36%
d bh
26%
Sa gdPa jb wh
38%
r hb f
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congreSS And PreSident emPHASiS2010
toPic in ocuS: tHe u.S. Budget de ic it
25-50% Pssb Ab 125%75-100% 100-125%50-75%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
13%
18%
28%
17%
10%
15%
25-50%50-75%
75-100%
100-125%
Ab 125%
Pssb
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t o P i c i n o c u S : t H e u . S . B u d g e t d e i c i t
Kaa e ok A S tp es Bs [2010 Q1]
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wt r t prr rk r t?
Pa rsk
rsk
n a rsk
25%0% 50% 75% 100%
cw- is
ia
Waks h u.S. da
Waks c s g
Waks u.S. Pwiaa
Prrtz t p r t b t bt t, b t r tt t pt b.
25%0% 50% 75% 100%
tp P
S
P
th P
Ba ia
ras Pa taxs
App a css aa-- s as
ras i taxs
max tax A h cs
Ap a va-A tax
Sp cap A h cs
Baa B A h cs
r Sp ds
r Sp
Sa Sr Sp
ma a ma
Aw 2001/3 tax cs exp 2010
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w t r/tr b prpr 2030? (t r r)
otHer toPicAl QueStionS rom PArtic iPAting BloggerS
Kaa e ok A S tp es Bs [2010 Q1]
-13-
u Sas
cha
ia
ep (eu)
Shas Asa
Japa
la Aa
Ka
rssa
m eas
wt r t t r b t t t t? (k tt pp)
25%0% 50% 75% 100%
25%0% 50% 75% 100%
90%
78%
48%
25%
19%
17%
16%
7%
88%
57%
55%
18%
16%
13%
12%
5%
1%
e aa(jbs, gdP, a)
g ps
th sk ak/Wa S
th
epshp/sa bsss
cpa ws
bsss
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metHodology & PAnel Selection
ias w s 200 p s bs, s wh w h Paas
. db 2009 aks (s h s sb a www../sas.php).
S bs wh p ahs ha ha sp h pa. xap, bh
Jas Ha a mz ch, -bs a eBws., papa, as t
cw a Ax tabak, -bs a maa.. th pa s a a
h-f sps.
th p h Kaa e ok s ha s pass a/ h b as
w b as (w p hss), b a a spss a
s w a as. A s papas s h Appx.
Pass w ask sb h pa afa, wh h b shw
whh h pa has a a bas. W f ha a h sx-h wh asw
hs qs, a ha s hss ip, wh 19 p da
a 16 p rpba.
th as qs ask s bs sb h pas a baks.
ths spss w xs (a sps s ). o ha
wh p a (h-) a s psss, f a
ps, a pssa jass, a w-h ha a Phd s.
Kaa e ok A S tp es Bs [2010 Q1]
-14-
wt r pt t?
19%
da
47%
ip
16%
rpba18%
oh/nA
Polit icAl Ail iAt ion
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APPendiX
lisT of ResPondenTs
ia spss w b as, b as a/ bs h papas h
Kaa e ok :
Aa e, Economists Voice
Aja Shah, ajayshahblog.blogspot.com
Ax tabak, Marginal Revolution
As Sha, Free Exchange
A Aawa, Mostly Economics
Aw lh, andrewleigh.com & economics.com.au
Aw rh, Club for Growth
Antitrust and Competition Policy Blog
A K, Econlog
Ah da, artdiamondblog.com
B c, Businomics.Typepad.com
Bookish Posts
Ba capa, EconLog
cas ma, Supply & Demand (in that order)
chs mass, Midas Oraclecas vss, Alpha.Sources
ca ea, Political Calculations
ca nwak, Newmarks Door
da aks, QandO
da gss, Slates Moneybox
da W. dz
da Bkwh, Macro and other Market Musings
da Za, aguanomics
da Bak, Beat the Press
da ma, dmarron.com
da Kk, Business Pundit
e ak, Falkenblog
EconomicDisconnect, economicdisconnect.blogspot.com
Entrepreneurial Mind
x Sa
Sa, Coordination Problems
Kaa e ok A S tp es Bs [2010 Q1]
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APPendiX
lisT of ResPondenTs (t)
g ma, Truth on the Market
Globalisation and the Environment
g Sh, The Conglomerate
g ras, Taking Hayek Seriously
g g, SSRNblog
Jas Ha, Econbrowser
Jas Sha, Healthcare EconomistJ m,A Dash of Insigh
J g, European Tribune
Jh B. ch, Emirates Economist
Jsha Wh, Truth on the Market
Js Wh, Wehr in the World
K Hh,Angry Bear
K Baaa, SCSU Scholars
la Ba,A Taxing Matter (and Angry Bear)
l Ks, Knowledge Problem
m. t Hs, Truth on the Market
mak P, Carpe Diem
mak tha, Economists View
ma na, TVHE
ma Ss, Futronomics
mahw e. Kah,greeneconomics.blogspot.com
ma mA,Asymmetrical Information
mz ch, Econbrowser
mha ma, Mandel on Innovation and Growth
mha m, Kids Prefer Cheesemha Paz, Financial Armageddon
mha Ps, China Financial Markets
msh,globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
naha A. ma, Economic Edge
nk Shz, Enterprise Blog (blog.american.com)
Pa ca, TaxProf Blog
Kaa e ok A S tp es Bs [2010 Q1]
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APPendiX
lisT of ResPondenTs (t)
Pa Ksk, Infectious Greed
P Bk, Coordination Problem
P g. K, Organizations and Markets
ra,Angry Bear
rha las, Organizations & Markets
rb la, Growthology.org
rb Waa, angrybear.blogspot.comrb X. c, I, Cringely
ra A, Free Exchange
S Jaw, Marketplace Scratch Pad
S maaa, Realclearmarkets
S Hwz, Coordination Problem
th rh, e360 blog at Entrepreneurship.org
t ia, The Mess That Greenspan Made
t Ka, Growthology.org
t cw, MarginalRevolution
va Ps, Dynamist
Wa rsh, Xconomy
W ak, WILLisms.com
ys Sh, Naked Capitalism
Kaa e ok A S tp es Bs [2010 Q1]
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www kaa