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Effectiveness Monitoring of Brownsville Dam
RemovalDesiree Tullos, PhD
Denise Lach, PhDKelly KiblerCara Walter
Denise Elston
http://home.netcom.com/~horse/digitarium.html
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http://rivers.bee.oregonstate.edu/index.html
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project objectives
• Analyze and propose dam removal monitoring guidance – environmental “experiment designs”
• Document extent, magnitude, and drivers of changes in Calapooia with dam removal
• Provide foundation for long-term projections in Calapooia
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change detection and small dam removal
• lack of effect or lack of effective methods?
• Statistical significance - do means mean anything? - Testing hypotheses about probabilities and predictability of geomorphic and biological responses
• Ecological significance – using reliable biotic and abiotic indicators (e.g. responsiveness to disturbance/restoration, feasibility of measurement)
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dam removal as environmental experiments
Advantages• broad scale trend development• validation of conceptual and numerical models• identification of dominant processes and scales• real-world examples and observations
Disadvantages• uncontrolled – challenges in hypothesis testing• spatial and time frames for expectations and recovery are
unpredictable• risk – of wasting money, damaging infrastructure, being
wrong…
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study layout
• Upstream• Reservoir• Downstream1• Downstream 2
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beyond a black BACI box
• BACI – Before-After-Control-Impact• problems with BACI for environmental
experiments– US/DS not independent– short/absent pre-removal– highly background variability– unspecific indicators– Insufficient sampling
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ecological significance –understanding the links
field observations numerical models physical models
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the (un)usual suspects
• physical– substrate size distribution – bulk samples, pebble counts– discharge – historical record extension and gaging– bedload and suspended sediment discharge– channel geometry, facies/features –total station
• biological– coarse vegetation (ODFW)– benthic macroinverts (modified EMAP)– habitat quality (ODFW)
• socio-economic
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the unusual suspects –evidence from invertebrate traits
Hydrologic disturbance• Reproductive cycle• Lifespan• Body size• Body shape• Dispersal
restoration disturbance• Reproductive cycle• Lifespan• Development rate• Adult ability to exit• Drift• Habitat and trophic
preferences
Tullos et al. (2008)
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pre-removal invert traits
Site 3 - upstream control, Site 2 - immediately downstream of the dam removal
Site 1 - farthest downstream reach.
Axis 1
Axi
s 2
site123
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pre-removal habitat
relative to watershed?
relative to Willamette
Valley?
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analysis of methods and responses -sediment sampling
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Informing removal outcomes -sediment transport
Uncertainty and accuracy– predictive equations– evacuation rates– fate of stored sediment
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Hydrology of the Calapooia
Kelly KiblerPhD – Water Resources
Engineering
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Gauging the Calapooia at Brownsville:River Discharge (Q)
•What is Q?•measure of the volume of water that flows past a given point in the river per unit of time•units- cubic feet per second (cfs)
•Why measure Q?•aquatic habitat•sediment transport
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Brownsville Gauging Station
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Brownsville Gauging Station
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Brownsville Gauging Station
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Brownsville Gauging Station
Water Depth at Calapooia Gauging Station
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9/15 10/15 11/14 12/14 1/13 2/12
feet
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USGS Mid-section method
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USGS Mid-section method
Area X velocity = Qfeet2 X ft/second = cfs∑Qsection =Qriver
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Calapooia at low Q
Easy to wade
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Calapooia at high Q-unsafe
to wade
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Calapooia at high Q-
unsafe to wade-
but we can use the bridge.
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Bridge gauging equipment
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Bridge gauging equipment
Our plan: measure Q
once a week
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Historical and post-removal channel change
Cara WalterMS – Water Resources Engineering
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Flow
±Aerial photo courtesy of Linn County GIS
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Field Measurements
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Discharge Comparison
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Annual Peak Discharge 1948-2007
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
Year
Dis
char
ge (c
fs)
Calapooia River at Holley, OR Mohawk River near Springfield, ORWiley Creek near Foster, OR
3520
Calapooia River at Holley, Estimated
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Dam crestFlow
Reservoir Channel Changes10-08-2007
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11-07-2007
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12-12-2007
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1-11-2008
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2-08-2008
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Downstream Channel Changes
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Downstream Channel Changes
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10-08-2007
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10-08-2007
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11-07-2007
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2-08-2008
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Socio-economic Impacts of Removal
Denise ElstonMS – Water Resources Science and
Policy
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Why Brownsville?
• It is one of the first in the nation under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's new Open Rivers Initiative (ORI)
• Partnerships, working together for healthy streams and community benefits
• Establishes monitoring and provides an opportunity to look at the whole story over a longer period of time
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What Makes This Study Important
• Currently, no comprehensive social impact analysis on small dam removal
• The opportunity to design a “template” for other removals
• Learn what makes successful community participation in future dam removals
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What is a Social Impact Analysis (SIA)?
• It is “the process of analyzing, monitoring, and managing the intended and unintended
consequences, both positive and negative, of planned interventions”
(International Association for Impact Assessment pamphlet, 2006)
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Components of Analysis
• Develop a baseline• Identify appropriate social indicators • Identify appropriate economic
indicators• Operationalize (measure) the
indicators• Ensure methods and assumptions are
transparent and replicable
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What are Indicators?
• Variables which are considered in a study to provide information that could be used to determine social impacts that might exist in a particular community.
• A measure of the well-being of society and of its citizen
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Potential Impacts of Dam Removal• Health and Social Well-
being
• Quality of the Living Environment
• Economic and Material Well-being
• Cultural Effects
• Family and Community
• Institutional, Legal, Political, and Equality
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Changes in social tension-conflict
within the community
Social differentiation and inequality-
creation of perceived or actual differences
between groups
Access to public goods/services
(Location for) delinquent behavior
Access to and utilization of legal procedures and
advice throughout project
Perceived and actual community cohesion
Change in cultural traditions
Occupational status and type of
employment-temporary local
jobs generated by the project
Perception of personal
safety, hazard exposure, and fear of crime
Dissatisfaction -due to failure of removal to
deliver promised benefits
Impact equity-distribution of
social and economic impacts
across the community
Community identification and connection-sense
of belonging, attachment to place
Loss of cultural or natural
heritage- areas of recreational
value
Replacement costs of environmental
services
Aesthetic qualities
Annoyance -experiences due to disruption of life
Changes in land ownership,
tenure, or legal rights
Changes in demographicstructure of the
community
Experience of being
culturally marginalized-e.g., structural exclusion of
certain groups
Property values-real estate sales
Perceived and actual quality of the living environment
Feeling about the removal that may
result in formation of interest groups
Participation in decision-making
Changes in social networks
Cultural integrity-degree to
which local culture is
respected and likely to persist
Standard/Cost of living
Leisure and recreational activities and opportunities
Uncertainty -being unsure of the effects or meaning of dam
removal
Institutional, Legal, Political, and
Equity Impacts
Family and Community Impacts
Cultural ImpactsEconomic Impacts and Material Well-
Being Impacts
Quality of the Living
Environment (Livability)
Impacts
Health and Social Well-Being Impacts
Impacts and IndicatorsImpacts and Indicators
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Impact: Economic and Material Well-Being
Indicators: Property values; real estate sales
Example Measurement: Changes in housingprices; changes in numbers of day house on market before sale
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Indicator: Uncertainty; being unsure of the effects or meaning of dam removal
Impact: Health and Social Well-Being
Example Measurement: Change in knowledge about dam removal
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Impact: Quality of the Living Environment (Livability)
Indicator: Leisure and recreational activities and opportunities
Example: Measurement: Changes in angling types and rates
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Impact: Cultural Effects
Indicator: Cultural practices andtraditions
Example Measurement: Changes in location of community activities
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Impact: Family and Community
Indicator: Social tension and/orconflict within the community
Example Measurement: Changes in number of disagreements in public meetings
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Impact: Institutional, Legal, Political, and Equity
Indicator: Participation in decision-making
Example Measurement: Changes in meeting attendance
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What Happens Next