Energy Access Mauritius, November 19-20, 2013
Ibrahim Hafeezur Rehman
Director, Social Transformation Division,
Martand Shardool, Research Associate
TERI, New Delhi
IC4HD Training 2013 2
509 575
28 8
Millions of people without electricity Millions of people relying on biomass
Over 40% without access to electricity are in
Africa. Over 25% without modern cooking energy
are also in Africa )
The Goal : Universal Access to Energy for All
Access projections : New Policies Scenario……
Source: IEA, 2012
The number of people without electricity access in developing Asia is projected to nearly halve, going from around 630 million in 2010 to below 335 million in 2030. South Asia is also expected to see significant improvement, but India in 2030 continues to have the single largest population without electricity access, at around 150 million. In sub-Saharan Africa, the number of people without access to electricity will increase by around 11% to 655 million in 2030.
Subregion Total number of people relying
on traditional biomass
(million)
Proportions of
populations relying on
biomass within sub-
region (%)
Population
relying on
biomass as share
of sub-region’s
population (%) Rural Urban Total Rural Urban
Africa 481 176 657 73.2 26.8 67
Sub-Sahran
Africa
477 176 653 73.1 26.9 80
Developing
Asia
1694 243 1937 87.5 12.5 55
China 377 47 423 89.1 11.1 32
India 765 90 855 89.5 10.5 75
Other-Asia 553 106 659 83.9 16.1 63
Latin America 60 24 85 70.6 28.2 18
Developing
Countries*
2235 444 2679 83.4 16.6 54
Rural and urban populations relying on traditional biomass
*_ Includes Middle East Note: Traditional us of biomass refers to the basic technology used and not the resource itself. The people relying on traditional use of biomass refer to those households where biomass is the primary fuel for cooking. In addition to the number of people relying on biomass for cooking, some 0.4 billion people, mostly in China, rely on coal cooking..
Source: IEA, 2010a.
Electricity as the main driver of Energy Access
Electricity as the main driver of Energy Access
37.7
33.4
20.2
12.7 10.5
1.1 0.0 0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
Population without electricity (in millions)
2.0
18.0 12.0 9.0
18.8
55.0
99.4
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
Electrification rate (%)
What then is Energy Access?
• Electricity
• Access to technology/appliances
• Power plants – grid, off-grid
• Something else………
Understanding Energy Access
• Universal Energy Access:
– “access to clean, reliable and affordable energy services for cooking and heating, lighting, communications and productive uses” - AGECC, 2010
Reaching modern energy to the poor and deprived
Incremental Access to Energy
Level 1
Basic human needs
Electricity for lighting and other basic needs like health and education [50-100 kWh per person per year]
Modern fuels and technologies for cooking and heating [50-100 kgoe of modern fuel or improved biomass cook stove]
Level 2
Productive uses
Electricity, modern fuels and other energy services to augment productivity
Eg. Water pumping for irrigation, fuel for transportation etc.
Level 3
Modern society needs
Modern energy services for many more domestic appliances including appliances and services for comfort and luxury
[electricity usage around 2000 kWh per person per year]
Adopted from : AGECC, 2010
Energy Access
Energy Access: AGECC, 2010
• A basic minimum threshold of modern energy
services - consumption and productive uses
• Modern energy services- reliable/affordable,
sustainable/from low-GHG-emitting energy sources
• IEA has proposed a threshold of 100 kWh per of
electricity and 100 kgoe of modern fuels
(equivalent to roughly 1200 kWh) per person per
year
No access at all
Only a bulb
A bulb and mobile phone charging facility
Energy for livelihoods
and modern living …
Definitions……….
Energy Access
Dynamic and evolving
End use and service delivery can be determinants
Quantitative Benchmarks (kWhr, units) need not be main
drivers
Lets not merely focus on needs of
today!
Lets focus on framework conditions that drive graduation from basic to productive levels
Scaling-up
Challenges….
Access /availability of a wide menu of technology
options
Market Value chain
Private sector
partnerships
Financial conundrum
(Investments, finance,
incentives, subsidies, etc.)
Demand Creation and Aggregation
Definitions Benchmarks
Institutional issues
Issues related to capacities
Grid/Off Grid turf
issues
Quality, reliability and back
up
• Limited players
• Largely public sector driven
What is missing…!
• Demands are not met - supply oriented delivery-over dependence on grid
• Limited players and lack of market competition that can empower consumers
• Limited options to choose from • Limited or no opportunities/solutions that allow transition
from basic to productive levels • Poor backup- after-sales/maintenance • Limited research for cost effective and efficient solutions • Finance constraints for both consumer and producer • Poor retail of energy solutions and services at last mile
locations • Lack of skilled manpower • …………..
Overarching questions before us…… Agenda and priorities guiding energy access? Where
does human development feature in energy access?
Is electrification synonymous to energy access? What
about thermal and cooking energy needs?
Is grid alone the solution?
Are energy requirements evolving and dynamic? If yes,
can energy benchmarks meet demands?
Isn’t rising price of fossil-fuel based energy a concern?
Target - grid extension or reliability?
Moreover…..
Bottom line 23 GW each and every year through 2030
Source: Ren 21
Biomass conundrum- efficieny
Is rising prices of fossil fuels a concern?
Is energy access and development feasible and
sustainable only through fossil fuels?
Do we need to shift to more sustainable pathways –
economic, environmental and social concerns?
Where does renewable energy feature in our scheme ?
Opportunity to leapfrog by increasing the mix of
renewables for energy access…………
Source: Ren 21
Which direction are we headed…Rising contribution of renewables to energy mix?
Renewable Power capacities in World
Solar PV installed capacity 1995-2012
Where does renewable energy feature? Country Sector/Technology Target
Kenya Renewable electricity Double installed capacity by 2012
Geothermal 5,000 MW by 2030
Solar water heating Cover 60% of annual demand for buildings using over 100 litres of hot
water per day
Malawi Hydro 346.5 MW installed capacity by 2014
Mozambique Wind, solar, hydro 2,000 MW each (no date)
Solar PV 82,000 systems installed (no date)
Solar water and space
heating
100,000 systems installed in rural areas (no date)
Wind for water pumping 3,000 stations installed (no date)
Biodigesters for biogas 1,000 systems installed (no date)
Renewable-energy based
productive systems
5,000 installed (no date)
Swaziland Solar water heating Installed in 20% of all public buildings by 2014
Uganda Solar home systems (PV) 400 kWp by 2012; 700 kWp by 2017
Large-scale hydro 830 MW by 2012; 1,200 MW by 2017
Mini and micro hydro 50 MW by 2012; 85 MW by 2017
Geothermal 25 MW by 2012; 45 MW by 2017
Organic MSW 15 MW by 2012; 30 MW by 2017
Solar water heating 4.2 MWth (6,000 m2
) by 2012; 21 MWth (30,000 m2
) by 2017
Biofuels 720,000 m3/year produced by 2012; 2.16 million m3/year produced by 2017
Regulatory policies and targets Fiscal incentives Public financing
indicates
national
level
policy
Renewa
ble
energy
targets
Feed-in
tariff/
premiu
m
payme
nt
Electric
utility
quota
obligatio
n/
RPS
Net
meteri
ng
Biofuels
obligatio
n/
mandate
Heat
obligatio
n/
mandate
Tradabl
e REC
Capital
subsid
y,
grant,
or
rebate
Investme
nt or
producti
on tax
credits
Reductio
ns in
sales,
energy,
CO2,
VAT, or
other
taxes
Energy
producti
on
payment
Public
investme
nt,
loans, or
grants
Public
competit
ive
bidding/
tenderin
g
Kenya
Swaziland
Seychelles
Zambia
Botswana
Tanzania
Mozambiq
ue
Malawi
Uganda
Is rising prices of fossil fuel a concern?..... Renewable energy support policies
Overarching questions before us…… • Does energy access translate to meeting development
needs of marginalized ?
• How do we go beyond projects/best practices? How do we
scale-up access and address current/future demand?
• Are we reaching out to under-served at last mile locations?
How do we empower the underserved in terms of “power
of choice”?
• Absence of organized/structured delivery models for the
off-grid sector ?
Energy access and poverty
• More than 95 per cent of energy poor are in either sub-Saharan Africa or in developing Asia. Of this, 84 per cent live in rural areas
• 28 per cent of world’s poor in Sub-Saharan Africa (UNDP,2010)
• Poor energy access and the low quality of traditional fuels aggravate poverty in developing countries and impede progress in virtually all foundational areas of development – (IPC-IG, 2012)
• Poverty perpetuates the lack of proper access to energy, creating a bi-directional nexus between energy and poverty – (IPC-IG, 2012)
Region/Country Electrification Rate People Without
Access to Electricity
Target
Kenya 18.0% 33
Malawi 1% (rural)
< 9% (national)
12.7 30% by 2020
Mauritius 99.4% 0.0
Mozambique 12.0% 20.2
Tanzania 2% (rural)
15.0% (national)
38.0 30% (rural) by 2015
Uganda 8.0% 29.0
Zambia 3.1% (rural)
47.6% (urban)
20.3% (national)
10.5 51% (rural)
90% (urban)
66% (national)
by 2030
Target setting : What approach to take – minimalist or look beyond household lighting
Source: Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century (REN21)
Energy access and poverty
• While addressing basic needs is a priority, the impact of energy access projects on livelihoods and incomes is less visible
• Energy access projects adopt a ‘minimalist’ approach, focusing on the basic energy needs of the poor (lighting homes, cooking, heating). While the importance of these cannot be overemphasized, such a strategy is not sufficient for effective poverty reduction (UNDP, 2011)
How do we provision energy services to enable the poor to escape from the vicious circle of poverty?
Can the poor afford to use modern energy services in the long run without sufficient income generation opportunities?
The Energy Plus Approach “The energy-poverty cycle is best addressed using an ‘Energy Plus’ approach, by combining energy service delivery with other poverty reduction initiatives” - UNDP, 2011
Source: UNDP, 2011
Solar Charging Station: Fee-for-service based model for poorest of the poor
Biomass Gasifier based energy service for Productive Applications
Energy for village schools and health centers
Solar Multi Utility to power village spices and flour grinding units, Vaccine refrigerators etc.
Solar DC Micro Grid
The Energy Plus Approach and TERI
Essentials for Energy Plus Approach
Identification of energy services
Access to finance
(end-user and for project)
Dovetailing with existing programs and schemes of government in areas of health, education, agriculture and
trade
Prioritization through legitimization of policies
Identification of tested technology options and capacity building at last
mile locations
Creating value chain for products and services and tapping livelihood
clusters
At project design stage
focus on: Monitoring, Institutions,
Post-commissioning maintenance, Linkage with market based systems and Evolving demands, Existing
livelihood opportunities
Summary…… • Paradigm shift required in way we set mandates/targets
• Human development as the driver – linkages to health,
education, potable water, livelihoods
• Energy access goes beyond centralized grid extension and
electrification – equal emphasis on off-grid
thermal/cooking
• Menu of technology options “ Power of choice to
poor/marginalised”
• Opportunity to leap frog –increase share of renewables
Summary…… • Think beyond projects – business models and upscaling
• Transparency and accountability regimes – new metric
of measurements and reporting-ARQ
• Multiple ownership with integration - Coherence and
continuity in policy that bring energy and human
development together
How do we provision energy services to enable the poor to escape from the vicious circle of poverty?
Thank you!!