Energy Crises: Their Imminence, Size, Impact
Sanjay. V. Khare
Department of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Toledo, Toledo, OH-43606
http://www.physics.utoledo.edu/~khare/
Four Distinct Crises
Problem Imminence Impact Awareness
I Global WarmingApproaching
(5 to 10 years)GRADUAL over 10 – 100+ years
HIGH
II Peak Production
Liquid Fuels
Now
(-3 to 5 years)CATASTROPIC
Undertanding is POOR
III Peak Production
Total Energy
Approaching
(10 to 15 years)CATASTROPIC
Understanding is POOR
IV Peak Other Materials (food, top
soil, fertile land, H2O, P, U, Au)
Now
(0 to 5 years)
CATASTROPIC
Can be exacerbated by
I - III
INCREASING
Peak Liquid Fuels
Best estimates of future world oil
production
Peak Total Energy
Total Energy Use, 1965 to
2050
(Courtesy: Paul Chefurka)
Net Surplus Energy (NSE)
TM = Total mass of energy providing material e.g., oil, coal, gas, wind turbine, PV modules
EPM = Energy produced per unit mass
NSE = TM X EPM (Naive Calculation)
Correct Calculation
EROEI= Energy Returned on Energy Invested =
NSE = TM x EPM x EROEI = TM x EPM x
We are running out of TM and EROEI
inEout
E
inEout
E
Mitigation
Type of Effort Importance
Conservation and efficiency, personal and societal High
Rapid deployment of existing technology, public transport, electric-transport, wind, solar-heat and
photovoltaic, geothermalHigh
Raising awareness by scientists and engineers of locals, media and policy makers
High
Applied engineering researchMedium term
(5 – 10 years)
Fundamental research done today will have scaled impact after 20 years
Long Term
(10 – 20 years)
Thank You
References:
• www.theoildrum.com
• www.energybulletin.net
• www.aspo-usa.org
• Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak; By Kenneth S. Deffeyes
• Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil; By David Goodstein
• Twilight in the Dessert; by Matthew R. Simmons
Solar Energy of Commercially-Available Thin Film Technologies, a-Si most clearly has no fundamental material limitations
Crystalline PV productionrate expected to slowover next few years dueto silicon shortage.Thin film PV productionrate expected to continueto increase.
One aspect of energy quality: a comparison of the energy content per unit mass and per unit volume for various sources.
“Balloon graph” representing quality (y graph) and quantity (x graph) of the United States economy for various fuels at various times. Arrows connect fuels from various times (i.e. domestic oil in 1930, 1970, 2005), and the size of the “balloon” represents part of the uncertainty associated with EROI estimates.(Source: US EIA, Cutler Cleveland and C. Hall’s own EROI work in preparation)
Power densities for fossil and renewable fuels. (Source: Smil, V. 2006. ''21st century energy: Some sobering thoughts.'' OECD
Observer 258/59: 22-23.)
Power Density
Energy Surplus
The energy return on investment (EROI) for various fuel sources in the U.S. (Source: Cutler Cleveland)
Energy and basic human needs. The international relationship between energy use (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita) and the Human
Development Index (2000). (Source: UNDP, 2002, WRI, 2002)
Peak may have occurred about time of Hurricane Katrina (2005)
But US oil production began to decline in 1970
• Many oil fields, countries, and oil companies have already peaked.
• The US peaked in 1970.
• 53 of 68 oil producing countries are in decline.
Oil discoveries in the US peaked- then 40 years later production
peaked
Adapted from Collin Campbell, University of Clausthal Conference, Dec 2000
The US lower 48 states
If the world follows the US pattern:
Adapted from: Richard C. Duncan and Walter Youngquist
…the world would peak soon
There’s no more spare capacity in the world supply
Adapted from “The Oil Age is Over”, Matt Savinar
Spare capacity = how much extra
oil can be produced within 30 days notice and maintained
for 90 days
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1985 1990 2003 2004
SPARE OIL PRODUCTION CAPACITY
Abu Dubai Iran Iraq Kuwait Neutral Saudi VenezuelaYear Dhabi Zone Arabia1980 28.0 1.4 58.0 31.0 65 6.1 163 181981 29.0 1.4 57.5 30.0 66 6.0 165 181982 30.6 1.3 57.0 29.7 65 5.9 165 201983 30.5 1.4 55.3 41.0 64 5.7 162 221984 30.4 1.4 51.0 43.0 64 5.6 166 251985 30.5 1.4 48.5 44.5 90 5.4 169 261986 30.0 1.4 47.9 44.1 90 5.4 169 261987 31.0 1.4 48.8 47.1 92 5.3 167 251988 92.2 4.0 92.9 100 92 5.2 167 561989 92.2 4.0 92.9 100 92 5.2 170 581990 92.2 4.0 92.9 100 92 5.0 258 591991 92.2 4.0 92.9 100 95 5.0 258 591992 92.2 4.0 92.9 100 94 5.0 258 631993 92.2 4.0 92.9 100 94 5.0 259 631994 92.2 4.3 89.3 100 94 5.0 259 651995 92.2 4.3 88.2 100 94 5.0 259 651996 92.2 4.0 93.0 112.0 94 5.0 259 651997 92.2 4.0 93.0 112.5 94 5.0 259 721998 92.2 4.0 89.7 112.5 94 5.0 259 731999 92.2 4.0 89.7 112.5 94 5.0 261 732000 92.2 4.0 89.7 112.5 94 5.0 261 772001 92.2 4.0 89.7 112.5 94 5.0 261 782002 92.2 4.0 89.7 112.5 94 5.0 261 78
SpuriousOPECReserveRevisions
Global Oil Production, 1965 to 2050
Global Natural Gas Production, 1965 to 2050
Global Coal Production, 1965 to 2050
Global Hydro Production, 1965 to 2050
Global Nuclear Production, 1965 to 2100
Actual and Projected Wind Power, 1997 to 2050
Actual and Projected Solar Power, 1996 to 2050
Other Renewable Energy Production, 1990 to 2100
Energy Use by Source, 1965 to 2100
The Global Energy Mix in 1965
The Global Energy Mix in 2005
The Global Energy Mix in 2050
The life support pie is shrinking:The foundation of
all agriculture, the soil, is diminishing
in all parts of the world
Aquifers are being pumped
dry
Forests are disappeari
ng
Fisheries are being
decimated
Biodiversity is being
extinguished
Rivers are drying up
• Farming “is an annual artificial catastrophe, and it requires the equivalent of three or four tons of TNT per acre for a modern American farm. Iowa's fields require the energy of 4,000 Nagasaki bombs every year.” 1
Fossil Fuel and Agriculture
1 Richard Manning; “The Oil We Eat”, Harpers, 2005. Mr. Manning was referring to the growing of the world’s major grain crops - corn, rice and wheat.
“World population today stands at 5.8 billion and is expected to increase to 8.0 billion by 2020. Cereals are the world's most important stable nutrient source and to meet future demand cereal production will need to double by the year 2020. Production of other foodstuffs will also have to increase significantly.Fertilizer, both organic and inorganic, will have to play a vital role if the food production necessary to support the increased population is to be provided”.
Fertilizer Association of Ireland
Saudi saying:
“My father rode a camel.
I drive a car.
My son flies a jet airplane.
His son will ride a camel.”
• A quad is a unit of energy equal to 1015 (a quadrillion) BTU,
or 1.055 × 1018 joules (1.055 exajoules or EJ) in SI units.
• 1018 = exa- (EJ)
1x electron-volt (eV) = 1.602 x 10-19 joule
1 x calorie (cal.) = 4.1868 joules
1 x kilocalorie (kcal.) = 4.1868 x 103 joules
1 x British Thermal Unit (BTU) = 1,055 joules
= 252 cal.
1 x millions BTU (MMBTU) = 1.055 x 109 joules
1 x quadrillion BTU (quad) = 1.055 x 1018 joules
= 1 x 1015 BTU
1 x them = 1.055 x 108 joules
= 1 x 105 BTU
1 x kilowatt-hour = 3.6 x 106 joules
1 x megawatt-hour = 3.6 x 109 joules
1 x gigawatt-hour = 3.6 x 1012 joules
1 x ton of oil equivalent (toe) = 4.1868 x 1010 joules
1 x million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) = 4.1868 x 1016 joules
• American barrel = 158.984 liters = 42 American (US) gallons = 3.78541 cubic decimeters (dm3) = 0.136 tonne (approx)
• 1 MMSCF of natural gas = 172.3 barrels of crude oil equivalent = 365 x 1,000,000 scf 1 million cu.ft. of natural gas = 18.91 tons liquid = 1598.69 cu.ft.liquid 1 std.cu.feet of natural gas = 1000 BTU = 252 kilocalories 1 m.ton of coal = 4.879 barrels of crude oil equivalent 1 m.ton of lignite = 2.053 barrels of crude oil equivalent 1 ltr of fuel oil 1500 sec = 38.9 cubic feet of natural gas 1 kg of LPG = 47.0 cubic feet of natural gas 1 normal cu.m. per day (Nm3/d) = 37.33 standard cu.ft. per day (SCFD) [flow rate of gas] 1 ton of LNG = 1.14 1.4 x 103 normal cu.m.natural (LNG conversions) gas (Nm3) = 52.3 x 103 standard cubic feet natural gas (SCF) = 55.0 x 109 joules (HHV) 1 ton of LNG = 1.22 tonne crude oil (energy equivalents) = 0.80 tonne heavy fuel oil = 0.91 tonne LPG (commercial composition) = 1.91 tonne coal 1 barrel per day (b/d) = 50 tonnes per year (approx.) 1 barrel of oil equivalent = 1 barrel of crude oil = 5,487 cubic feet of gas **
• Natural gas is converted to barrels of oil equivalent using a ratio of 5,487 cubic feet of natural gas per one barrel of crude oil. This ratio is based on the actual average equivalent energy content of TOTAL's natural gas reserves.