![Page 1: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Energy PolicyOil Peak
Gary Flomenhoft
![Page 2: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
The “OIL PEAK”
![Page 3: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Source: Smil (1991)
![Page 4: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
0
25
50
75
100
1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Composition of U.S. Energy UseComposition of U.S. Energy Use
wood
animal feed
coal
oil
gas
electricity
Per
cen
t o
f to
tal
ener
gy
use
![Page 5: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
World GDP and CO2
$1
$10
$100
$1,000
$10,000
$100,000
100010501100115012001250130013501400145015001550160016501700175018001850190019502000
World GDP Billions US$$
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
ATMOSPHERIC CO2
World GDPCO2 level
![Page 6: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Energy Rate of Return
![Page 7: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Energy Densities of Fuels
Fuel Energy Density (Mj/kg)
Peats, green wood, grasses 5.0-10.0Crop residues, air-dried wood 12.0-15.0Bituminous coals 18.0-25.0Charcoal, anthracite coals 18.0-32.0Crude oils 40.0-44.0
![Page 8: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950
Fuel
DomesticatedAnimals
Labor
Work Done in the U.S. Economy, 1850-1970
![Page 9: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
The Epoch of Fossil Fuel Exploitation(after Hubbert, 1969)
0-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5
Iron inMiddleEast
StonehengeBuilt
Parthenoncompleted
Pyramidsconstructed
Mayanculture
Inquisition
BlackDeath
Magellan'sCircumnavigation
Steam Engine
100
200
300
Tri
llio
n k
wh
per
yea
r
![Page 10: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Hubbert Oil Cycle
![Page 11: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
US Oil Extraction
![Page 12: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
US Oil Extraction
![Page 13: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
World Oil Extraction
![Page 14: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Results- Various Countries
Algeria (EUR=26.09 BBO)
Mexico (EUR=65.0 BBO)
Norway (EUR=35.2 BBO)
Romania (EUR=7.3 BBO)
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
BBO HistoricalProduction
PredictedProduction
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
BBO
Historial Production
PredictedProduction
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
BBO
HistoricalProduction
PredictedProduction
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
BBO
HistoricalProduction
PredictedProduction
![Page 15: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
World Oil Extraction
![Page 16: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
World Oil Extraction
![Page 17: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
World Oil Extraction
![Page 18: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
World Oil Extraction
![Page 19: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
![Page 20: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Various National Patterns United States (EUR = 286 BBO)
02468
101214
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Billion Barrels per Year
Production
Demand
USA – E.g.. of a net consumer
Venezuela – E.g. of a net producer
High reserves (~ 3000 BBO) and low economic growth scenario
Venezuela (EUR = 95.71 BBO)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Billion barrels per year
Production
Demand
![Page 21: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Various National Patterns
United Arab Emirates (EUR=80.63 BBO)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Billion barrels per year
Production
Demand
Mexico (EUR = 82.48 BBO)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Billion barrels per year
ProductionDemand
Mexico– E.g.. of a country that switches over from net producer to net consumer in the future.
U.A.E. – E.g. of a swing producer.
High reserves (~ 3000 BBO) and low economic growth scenario
![Page 22: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Forecasting Oil Production
Source : US DOE (EIA), website.
U = ~ 3000 (mean estimate of the USGS 2000).
Peak Production = 2037
![Page 23: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
World Oil Extraction
![Page 24: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
World Oil Extraction
![Page 25: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
World Oil Consumption
![Page 26: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
World Oil Flows
![Page 27: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
•Julian Simon view: technological Julian Simon view: technological developments and human ingenuity will developments and human ingenuity will yield more resourcesyield more resources
–““Drowning in oil” Drowning in oil” The EconomistThe Economist, March 6, March 6thth--1212thth 1999, pp. 23-25 1999, pp. 23-25
•Colin Campbell, et al. use Hubbert curves Colin Campbell, et al. use Hubbert curves to predict the end of oilto predict the end of oil
–““The End of Cheap Oil” The End of Cheap Oil” Scientific AmericanScientific American, , March 1998, pp. 78-83 (Campbell and March 1998, pp. 78-83 (Campbell and Laherrere)Laherrere)
Two ViewsTwo Views
S. GS. Gürcan Gülen, ürcan Gülen, Ph.D.Ph.D.
![Page 28: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Real Price of Oil since 1869
![Page 29: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Real Price of Oil since 1869
![Page 30: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Oil Reserve/Production ratio
![Page 31: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Oil Reserves
![Page 32: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
“Proven” oil reserves
![Page 33: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Natural Gas Reserves
![Page 34: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Natural Gas Reserves
![Page 35: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Coal Reserves
![Page 36: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
![Page 37: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Hummer H1Sticker price $106,185
Current lawEquipment deduction $25,000Total tax deduction* $60,722
Bush economic planEquipment deduction $75,000Total tax deduction* $88,722
* Includes bonus tax write-off enacted by Congress in March 2002 and a deduction for normal depreciation.
Sources: Detroit News research, IRS, Taxpayers for Common Sense
Gas Hog Tax Credit
![Page 38: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Cars per Thousand People
Source:
JustAuto.com
“Today there are 670 million vehicles in the world. By 2050 that number is expected to increase to 4.5 billion or maybe more.”
Thomas Gross, US DOE
![Page 39: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
![Page 40: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
China Energy use 1997
![Page 41: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
![Page 42: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Source: EPA
![Page 43: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
American success
Great natural resourcesEnergy subsidies: slaves then fossil fuelsGlobal trade
![Page 44: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
![Page 45: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
![Page 46: Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft. The “OIL PEAK”](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062309/56649f135503460f94c27bad/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Other Extinct cultures
Rapa Nui- (Easter Island)MangaiaMangerevaPitcairnHenderson
Exception:Tikopia