Wherewearenowandhowwegettowherewewanttobe?
EthanMansfieldSWIdahoRegionalEconomistIdahoDepartmentofLabor
EconomicDevelopmentinSouthCentralIdaho
Outline
• WhatDoesSIEDO’s6-countyregionlooklikenow?• Whatisitprojectedtolooklikeinthefuture?• WhataretheEconomicDevelopmentpolicychangesgoingforwardthatmightaffecttheregion’spositioninthefuture?
Source:EMSI
8.6
3.0
9.7
3.7
10
4.9
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UnemploymentRatesSIEDORegion,IdahoandUnitedStates
2007-2016
SIEDO Idaho US
JobsandWages• Population=169,737(10%ofIdaho)• Idaho=1,654,930
• TotalJobs=85,356(11%ofIdaho)• Idaho=784,609
• AverageWageperJob=$31,535• Idaho=$36,781
• PerCapitaIncome=$37,918• Idaho=$36,734
• 2011-2016JobGrowth=9,745• Idaho=85,459
• 2011-2015PercentJobGrowth=13%• Idaho=12%
Description 2016 Jobs 2016 Wages 2011 - 2016 Change
2011 - 2016 % Change
Expected Change
Competitive Effect
2016 Location Quotient
Crop and Animal Production 13,752 $31,249 988 7% (205) 1,194 13.31Government (incl. Public Ed) 11,296 $29,521 1,045 9% 522 523 0.86Manufacturing 9,333 $43,421 1,044 11% (79) 1,122 1.38Health Care and Social Assistance 9,153 $34,687 2,618 29% 1,768 849 0.85Retail Trade 8,836 $25,676 1,202 14% 617 585 0.99Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services
5,648 $19,061 1,211 21% 817 394 1.05
Accommodation and Food Services 5,355 $13,346 865 16% 544 321 0.74Transportation and Warehousing 4,460 $38,227 626 14% 390 235 1.56Construction 3,472 $33,451 484 14% 345 139 0.75Wholesale Trade 3,342 $46,813 296 9% 288 8 1.02Other Services (except Public Administration)
3,229 $22,275 602 19% 279 322 0.79
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
2,254 $42,932 267 12% 372 (105) 0.41
Finance and Insurance 1,584 $44,655 25 2% 124 (99) 0.48
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 893 $12,055 138 15% 96 42 0.62
Information 765 $39,873 38 5% 23 15 0.49
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 678 $28,189 20 3% 37 (16) 0.49
Educational Services 464 $17,138 102 22% 67 36 0.22Utilities 463 $68,907 43 9% (1) 45 1.52Management of Companies and Enterprises
204 $55,973 3 1% 18 (15) 0.17
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction
174 $31,876 10 6% 32 (23) 0.47
3.6
5.3
3.9
SIEDO
Idaho
UnitedStates
PercentPopulationChange2010-2015
25%
61%
15%
22%
64%
15%19%
66%
15%
0-14 15-64 65+
AgeDistribution2015
SIEDORegion Idaho UnitedStates
12%
22%
16%
SEIDO Idaho USA
PercentageChange60andOlder2010-2015
8%
27%
41%
17%
6%
8%
28%
43%
16%
5%
14-21 22-34 35-54 55-64 65-99
WORKFORCEBYAGECOHORT
SIEDO Idaho
SIEDORegion:• 23%oftheworking
populationisabovetheageof55
• 6%oftheworkingpopulationisabovetheageof65
IdahoState:• 21%oftheworking
populationisabovetheage55
• 5%oftheworkingpopulationisabovetheageof65
9% 9%
22%
14% 14%
25%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0-14 15-64 65+
ProjectedGrowthByAgeGroup2015- 2025
SIEDORegion Idaho
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
2025ProjectedJobGrowth* LaborForceGrowth**
WorkforceGap
13,687
5,101
8,586
NAICS Description 2016 Jobs 2015 - 2025 Change 2015 - 2025 % Change62 Health Care and Social Assistance 9,153 2,831 32%
56Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services
5,648 1,808 36%
44 Retail Trade 8,836 1,437 17%72 Accommodation and Food Services 5,355 1,319 27%31 Manufacturing 9,333 1,111 12%90 Government (incl. Public Ed) 11,296 1,109 10%11 Crop and Animal Production 13,752 939 7%48 Transportation and Warehousing 4,460 790 19%
81 Other Services (except Public Administration)
3,229 649 21%
23 Construction 3,472 444 13%71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 893 324 47%42 Wholesale Trade 3,342 323 10%
54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
2,254 315 14%
61 Educational Services 464 135 32%51 Information 765 57 8%22 Utilities 463 47 10%52 Finance and Insurance 1,584 36 2%
21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction
174 18 11%
55 Management of Companies and Enterprises
204 8 4%
53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 678 (12) (2%)
Migration
• StepOne:Whydopeoplemove?• MarketReasons
• JobOpportunities• Non-marketReasons
• Family• CulturalAmenities• NaturalAmenities• Schools
• BothMarketandNon-marketfactorsareEconomicReasons
HaveyouseenClif Bar’sInstagram?
• https://www.instagram.com/clifbarcompany/?hl=en• TheClif BarTeamBikerinTwinFalls
“ThePowerofPlace-making”
• Young,TalentedPeoplelikeDiversityin:• HousingStock• TransportationModes• PublicandPrivateSpaces• RestaurantsandBars• TrailUses• Population
WhatFactorsContributetoUnequalEconomicDevelopmentacrossSpace?• NaturalAmenities• CulturalAmenities(Schools)• HumanCapital(Workforce)(Schools)• Infrastructure(Schools)• Jobsfollowpeoplevs.peoplefollowjobs?• Moresupportforjobsfollowpeopleinruralareas;MagicValleyisexceptional
• TaxPolicy?
MikeBrown– LocalConstruct
• Anumberofcitieshavebeenabletoattracttalentbyqualityurbanplanning.Themostsuccessfulcitiesinthepastyears— I’dsaySeattleandPortlandareawesomeexamples,offthetopofmyhead,andNashville’sanothergoodexample— they’vereallybeenfocusedonhavingaprogressiveplanandcreatingalivabledowntown.Thosearethethingsthatattracttalent.
HowCanweHelp?• AttractandRetainTalentedWorkers(oranyworkers)• ChooseIdahocampaign• LocalPolicythatencouragesworkerstostayandattractsnewones(i.e.whatdoesyourtargetaudiencewantinacommunity?)• CreateTalentPipelineswithinthecommunity
• AmenitiesMattertoMigration• Whatdoesanewgenerationlookfor?
• Infrastructureisimportant• PhysicalInfrastructure
• Roads,Railways,AirService• VirtualInfrastructure
• Broadband
RyanArmbruster – Elam&Burke
• Ithinkacompletelook-seeatwhat[other]localcommunities…doisgoingtobetoughbecauseifyoulookatsomeoftheotherlegislativeprovisionsthathavecomeintoplayoverthelastfivetosixyears,it’sallgonetheotherway.Thelegislaturehascomedownandsaid[localcommunities]can’tregulateUber,theycan’tregulatefirearms,andit’sjustrestrictingwhatyouatthelocallevel,[you]whoarevotingforyourcouncilmenoryourcountycommissioners,candobecausethestatehaspreemptedsomanyoftheimportantpartsthatmakecommunitieslocal.
ThankYou!
• EthanMansfield• [email protected]
• Sources:EconomicModelingSpecialistsInternational;USCensusBureau,CountyQuickfacts andQuarterlyWorkforceIndicators;IdahoDepartmentofLabor,PopulationProjections.
