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Scenario planning for success – the art of the long viewJonathon HaggerGareth Houghting
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• to discuss the use of scenarios,• to describe three scenario tools,• to apply those tools to a scenario,• to develop an understanding of
scenarios
The purpose of this presentation is -
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Meet the minds behind scenariosCurry Hammond Schwartz
Schwartz P., The art of the long viewHammond A., Which world? Scenarios for the 21st centuryCurry A., Acting on the future
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“While the future is uncertain and much of it is beyond our control, we can control many aspects of it.
We choose our future: we create it by what we do or fail to do.”
Wendy Schultz, “Defining Futures Fluency”http://www.infinitefutures.com/essays/ff/ChFiveView.pdf
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Jeremy Bentham on scenario planning for crucial choices in uncertain timeshttp://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&v=tzlnB_MszyM&NR=1
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What are Scenarios ?
“A tool for ordering one’s perceptions about alternative future environments in which one’s decision might be played out right” (Schwartz, 1991)
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Scenarios are about -
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Writing a story,
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Articulating pathways,
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Creating a vision.
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What are Scenarios?
“That part of strategic planning which relates to the tools and technologies for managing the uncertainties of the future” (Ringland, 1998)
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Scenarios are not about
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Predicting the future,
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Choosing a preferred or desired future,
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Extrapolating the present.
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Scenarios ARE about making better decisions with a desired future in mind.
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We propose that
“Scenarios allow better preparation for the future, through enabling the effective consideration of uncertainties through challenging individuals’ assumptions, values and beliefs.
As we strategize today, we prepare for tomorrow.”
Hagger & Houghting 2013
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Articulate and isolate key decisions
Conduct in-depth research
Look closely at the driving forces
Rehearse the implications
Schwartz’s methodology
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Scenarios are used by
Shell Oil http://www.shell.com/global/future-energy/scenarios.html
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) http://ccs.mit.edu/21c/21CWP001.html#3
AutoNationhttp://www.forbes.com/2009/08/03/scenario-planning-advice-leadership-managing-planning.html
Oraclehttp://docs.oracle.com/cd/E18727_01/doc.121/e12277/T515640T515644.htm
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Demystifying Scenario Terminology
Plain English Schwartz Hammond
Status quo Official Future Market World
Change for the worse
Depression Fortress World
Change for the better
Transformative Transformed World
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Curry vs Schwartz!
Some similarities with Schwartz but a number of significant differences
Focuses on defining the “system under scrutiny” leading to the eventual decision
Less focus on planning, more consideration on causal or systems approaches
Wide engagement with employees and stakeholders is vital giving greater depth in decision making
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Typical scenarios process (Curry)
© HenleyCentreHeadlightVision
Scanning
Understanding landscape
Strategizing
Visioning, priorities
& future
planning
Approx 50
driversident-ified
AxesDevelop-
ment
Draft Scenarios
developed
An iterative process
Scenario testing
20drivers
prioritisedand
tested
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© HenleyCentreHeadlightVision
Actions that are needed whatever the scenario
(Imperatives)
Involves assessing actions against capabilities and competencies, identifying
opportunities and reviewing risks
Drivers of change
ScenariosStrategic
implications
Ideas for
futurestrategy & action
Actions needed to reach a preferred future outcome
(Preferences)
From scenarios to strategy
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Limitations of scenario planninghttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7b0cLn-wHU
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Now its your turn
You own a business that manufactures small arms. You will split into three groups, and each compile a future scenario. We will then discuss the long term viability of the company in each possible future world.Report back what you find
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“Scenarios allow better preparation for the future, through enabling the effective consideration of uncertainties through challenging individuals’ assumptions, values and beliefs.
As we strategize today, we prepare for tomorrow.”
Hagger & Houghting 2013
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So HOW DO we use scenarios?
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Create plays,
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Recognise the signs,
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Plan ahead
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In closing
Scenarios are “…tools and technologies for managing the uncertainties of the future” (Ringland, 1998)
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The importance of scenario planning to sustained successhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhoXFVQsIxw
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More resources
Introduction to Scenario Planning Videohttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVgxZnRT54E
Scenario Thinkinghttp://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page
Andrew Currys bloghttp://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com/
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Schwartz, P. (1996). The art of the long view: Planning for the future in an uncertain world. New York: Currency Doubleday. Pp. xii-xvi & 3-28.
Hammond, A. (1998). Which world? Scenarios for the 21st century: Global destinies, regional choices. Washington, DC: Island Press. (13-25).
Curry, A. (2007). Acting on the future. In B. Sharpe & K, van der Heijden (Eds). Scenarios for success: Turning insight into action. Chichester, England: John Wiley. (pp. 339-371).
References