-
Fall Chinook
Spring Chinook
Summer Steelhead
Sockeye
Summer Chinook
Presented by Bill TweitWashington Department of Fish and WildlifeMarch 2010
-
Columbia River 2009 returns and 2010 forecasts
Upriver Spring Chinook
Upper Columbia Summer Chinook
Sockeye
Upriver Summer Steelhead
Fall Chinook and coho
2009 fisheries ‐
treaty and non‐treaty 2010 fishery expectations
-
2009 Summary
Nearly 2.2 million adult salmonids entered the
Columbia River in 2009
60% destined for areas above Bonneville Dam
Upriver Spring Chinook slightly less than average
Upper Columbia Summer Chinook average return
Sockeye – 2 times average, strong SR component
Upriver Summer Steelhead – 2 times average
Upriver Fall Chinook – strong bright component
Coho –Strong return, 3 times average @ BON
Record setting jack returns for some stocks
Strong returns to Snake River
-
2010 Columbia River Forecasts
Over 2.2 million adult salmonids forecasted
75% destined for areas above Bonneville Dam
Record upriver spring Chinook
Strong forecasts for wild SR and UPC spring Chinook
Strong upper Columbia Summer Chinook return
Strong Sockeye return
Average (~400K) upriver Summer Steelhead return?
Strong fall Chinook, especially upriver components
Average coho abundance
-
Forecast Methodology
Upriver spring Chinook forecast typically derived
from cohort analysis
High jack counts in 2009 and a large margin of
forecast error in 2008 and 2009
TAC reviewed several alternative models, including
those that considered ocean conditions, cohort ratios, even sablefish survival.
No one model clearly proved to be the heir apparent
TAC averaged the output of the seven most reasonable models (range 366,000 to 528,000 age 4 fish)
-
2009 Forecast: 298,9002009 Return: 169,300
2010 Forecast: 470,000
-
2009 Forecast: 179,200 (29,700 wild)2009 Return: 92,000 (20,900 wild)
2010 Forecast: Total 272,000Wild 73,400
-
2009 Forecast: 23,100 (2,700 wild)2009 Return: 17,400 (1,800 wild)
2010 Forecast: Total 57,300Wild 5,700
-
2009 Forecast: 183,800 (600 SR)2009 Return: 179,000 (1,400 SR)
2010 Forecast: Total 125,200Wild 600
-
2010 Forecast (NA)Likely strong average
2009 Forecast 351,8002009Actual 601,600
-
2010 Forecast652,700
2009 Forecast 520,9002009Actual 418,300
-
2010 Forecast310,8002009 Forecast 269,700
2009 Actual 212,000
-
2010 Forecast169,000
2009 Forecast 56,5002009 Actual 49,000
-
2010 Forecast389.5
2009 Forecast 1,042.42009 Actual 1,055.5
-
2009 Non‐Treaty Fisheries
Upriver spring Chinook – 21,000 hatchery fish kept
ESA mortalities: 371 wild Upper Columbia or Snake River
Impact 1.7% compared to 2.0% ESA limit
Sockeye – No direct fisheries
1,100 fish harvested, 9 fish Snake river origin
Impact 0.6%, compared to 1% ESA limit
Upriver Summer Steelhead‐
26,000 hatchery fish kept
ESA mortalities:
-
2009 Non Treaty Fisheries
Recreational fisheries above Bonneville Dam
Zone 6/ Ringold
area spring Chinook ‐
300 kept
Snake River‐
spring/summer Chinook ‐
500 kept
BON‐PRD summer Chinook – 200 kept
> PRD summer Chinook ‐
3,200 kept
Colville tribal –
1,000 summer Chinook
Wanapum
tribal – 185 summer Chinook
-
2009 Treaty Fisheries
Spring Chinook – 13,100 from C&S permit/platform
No commercial gillnet season
Summer Chinook – 11,400 from commercial and C&S
Sockeye – 10,400 fish from commercial and C&S
Steelhead – 1,100 from winter/spring. No fall data yet
US v Oregon obligation met. Impacts within ESA
limit
-
2010 Fishery Expectations
Non‐Treaty Spring Chinook
Fisheries operating under 40% buffered runsize
Recreational fisheries underway in Columbia River
Commercial fisheries anticipated in March
Treaty Spring Chinook
C&S permit likely begin earlier than normal
High likelihood of commercial gillnet fishing periods
Summer Chinook –
harvestable fish available
Fall Chinook – NOF underway, positive forecasts
-
Slide Number 1Columbia River 2009 Summary 2010 Columbia River ForecastsForecast MethodologySlide Number 6Slide Number 7Slide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 142009 Non-Treaty Fisheries2009 Non Treaty Fisheries2009 Treaty Fisheries 2010 Fishery ExpectationsSlide Number 19