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  • Finding Harms Way(Mapping Disaster Risk in the Philippines)Department of Environment and Natural ResourcesManila Observatory14 April 2005

  • TYPHOON TRACKS

  • EARTHQUAKEEPICENTERS

  • Where does the money go?

  • RISKlikelihood of harm, loss, disaster

  • Physical impact of disturbanceHAZARDCapacity of a community to prepare, absorb and recover from hazard

    VULNERABILITY

    RISKElements affected by hazardEXPOSURE

  • Risk = H x E x V

  • ExposurePopulationNatural habitatConservation areasGroundwater

  • EXPOSUREPOPULATION DENSITY 2000National Statistics OfficeCity/Municipal Population Data1km x 1km grids

  • EXPOSURENATURAL HABITATPhilippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

  • EXPOSURECONSERVATION AREASPhilippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

  • EXPOSUREGROUNDWATER AVAILABILITYMines and Geosciences Bureau

  • VulnerabilityHuman Development IndexEducationHealthEconomyUrban centersSocio-eco pressuresTransport

  • VULNERABILITYHUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (2000)UNDPEducationHealthIncome

  • VULNERABILITYHIERARCHY OF URBAN CENTERSTask Force on Human Settlements, Development Academy of the Philippines

  • VULNERABILITYSOCIO-ECONOMIC PRESSURESPhilippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

  • VULNERABILITYTRANSPORTATION FACILITIESPhilippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

  • EXPOSURE/VULNERABILITYPOPULATION DENSITY 2000HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (2000)

  • Hazards/RisksNaturalTyphoonDrought (El Nino)Earthquake (Tremor, Landslide)VolcanoTsunamiAnthropogenicDeforestation MiningClimate change (temperature,rainfall)

  • HAZARDTYPHOONJoint Typhoon Warning Center(Tropical Depression, Tropical Storms,Typhoons, Super typhoons)0.25 x 0.25 grids(1945-2001)

  • RISK (Typhoon)IfugaoLa UnionCagayanIlocos SurAlbayMountain ProvinceKalingaPangasinanSorsogonPampangaCamarines SurCatanduanesNueva EcijaIlocos NorteNorthern SamarTarlacApayaoRizalBenguetCamarines Norte

  • HAZARDEL NINOIPCC-DDC-CRU0.5 x 0.5 grids(1971-2000)

  • RISK (Drought/El Nio)SuluBasilanMaguindanaoLanao Del SurLanao Del NorteDavao Del SurMisamis OccidentalSaranganiZamboanga Del SurSouth CotabatoZamboanga Del NorteNorth CotabatoSultan KudaratSiquijorTawi-tawiNegros OrientalCamiguinDavao del NorteMisamis OrientalBukidnon

  • HAZARDEARTHQUAKENational Geographic Data Center0.25 x 0.25 grids(1963-2001)

  • RISK (Earthquake)TarlacZambalesPangasinanWestern SamarDavao del NorteSurigao Del NorteSurigao Del SurAlbayRizalCaviteCebuOccidental MindoroCamarines SurLa UnionPampangaBatangasSaranganiMasbateLagunaMetro Manila

  • HAZARDEARTHQUAKE-INDUCEDSHALLOW LANDSLIDESPHIVOLCS

  • RISK (EQ-Induced Landslides)AlbayRizalCebuCamarines SurTarlacZambalesPangasinanLa UnionPampangaWestern SamarSaranganiMasbateNegros OrientalLagunaMisamis OccidentalCapizDavao del NorteSurigao Del NorteBataanLeyte

  • HAZARDDISTRIBUTION OF VOLCANOESPHIVOLCS

  • RISK (Volcano)SuluAlbayTarlacZambalesNegros OrientalPampangaBatangasDavao del NorteBiliranCamiguinLagunaSorsogonSouth CotabatoCamarines SurQuezonNorth CotabatoBukidnonCagayanLeyteNegros Occidental

  • HAZARDTSUNAMIEnvironmental and Natural Resources Atlas of the Philippines, ECPF

  • RISK (Tsunami)AlbayCaviteCebuZambalesPangasinanLa UnionPampangaBatangasSaranganiMasbateNegros OrientalMetro ManilaSurigao Del NorteBataanLeyteSurigao Del SurBulacanRomblonBoholMisamis Oriental

  • HAZARDPROJECTED TEMPERATURE CHANGECommonwealth and Scientific Research Organization5.625 x 3.2 grids(2066-2095)

  • RISK (Temperature)SuluBasilanLanao Del SurMaguindanaoLanao Del NorteDavao Del SurZamboanga Del SurTawi-tawiMisamis OccidentalCamiguinSiquijorMisamis OrientalCebuAgusan Del NorteZamboanga Del NorteAlbaySaranganiNegros OrientalNegros OccidentalIfugao

  • HAZARDPROJECTED RAINFALL CHANGEHadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research 3.75 x 2.5 grids(2066-2095)

  • RISK (Rainfall Change)AlbayPampangaIfugaoRizalCaviteSorsogonLagunaBiliranBatangasPangasinanMasbateMetro ManilaTarlacNueva EcijaNorthern SamarAklanCapizLa UnionWestern SamarRomblon

  • HAZARDHISTORICAL CLIMATE CHANGEIPCC-DDC-CRU0.5 x 0.5 grids(1901-1990)

  • HAZARDDEFORESTATIONGlobal DEM Philippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

  • HAZARDMININGPhilippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities

  • In sum, harms way:TyphoonLuzon (north, southeast), Visayas (east)Drought (El Nino)Mindanao (central, west) Earthquake (tremor, landslide) + TsunamiNorthwest to southeast diagonal across RPVolcanoLuzon (west central, south, southeast), Visayas (central, east), Mindanao (central)Climate Change Temperature: Mindanao, Visayas (central)Rainfall: Luzon (central, south, southeast), Visayas (east)


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