Use of a Blended Satellite and in situ Sea Surface Temperature Climate Data Record for Evaluating Long-term Impacts on Coral and Marine Mammal Communities

V. Banzon1, G. Liu2, K. Forney3, E. A. Becker3 , L. Sun1,4 and K. Arzayus1

PC34A-2162

Introduction MarineMammalManagement

February2016

NOAANationalCentersforEnvironmentalInformation

FutureSSTProjections

References

TheNOAA¼° dailyoptimuminterpolation(DOI)seasurfacetemperature(SST)dataset,describedinBanzon etal.(2016):•hasa¼° (~25km)spatialresolutionsuitableforexaminingmesoscale orgreater,and•hasatemporalresolution(1-day)thatallowsstudyofprocessesthatareaffectedbytemperaturevariationsonadailyorgreaterscale.DOISSTwasselectedbytheClimateDataRecordsprogram(Batesetal.,inpress)asaconsistentandsufficientlylongsatellite-basedrecordtodetectlongtermtrendsandexamineclimate-relatedprocesses.

This foundationaldatasethasbroadapplicability,asdemonstratedbythreeusecasesshownhere.

Fig.4.Trendof1982–2014annualmaximumcoralbleachingheatstresslevelatreeflocations(a)globally,(b)theCoralTriangle,(c)HawaiianIslandchain,(d)theCaribbean[Greenpixels:small(-0.2,0.2)orinsignificant(P>0.1)trends].

Fig.1.BleachedplatecoralsandliveseafansonMolassesReef,KeyLargo,Florida.PhotocourtesyofMattKeiffer (Picasa).

Fig.2.Aglobalbleachingeventcausedbythermalstressstarted in2014andhascontinuedinto2015and2016.

Heatstressisconducivetocoralbleaching(Fig.1).Anongoingglobalbleachingeventisinitsthirdyear(Fig.2).Hasheatstressincreasedasaresultoftherecentclimatechange?NOAACoralReefWatch(CRW)

examinedthe34yearsofDOISSTdataforanswers,basedonthealgorithmusedinCRW’snear-real-timesatellitebleachingheatstressmonitoring(Liuetal.,2014).Significantincreaseinsevere

stressisseennotonlyintheintensity(Fig.3)butalsospatialcoverage(Fig.4).

DOISST has been used successfully in habitat-based models of the distribution and abundance of cetaceans (whales, dolphins,and porpoises) in both the central and northeastern Pacific (Fig, 5–7). For many species, SST serves as an effective proxy forunmeasured underlying ecological processes linking cetaceans to their prey.Using DOISST, the models successfully captured variability in cetacean distribution at seasonal and interannual time scales.

Such models can provide a foundation for dynamic ocean management, especially in the face of long term temperature change.

1NOAANationalCentersforEnvironmentalInformation(NCEI),CenterforCoasts,Oceans,andGeophysicsn 2NOAACoralReefWatch Program– GST,NOAACenterforWeatherandClimatePrediction(NCWP)n 3NOAA/NMFS/SWFSC,MarineMammalandTurtleDivision,SouthwestFisheriesScienceCentern 4CooperativeInstituteforClimateandSatellites-NC

Banzon,V.,etal.,2016:Alongtermrecordofblendedsatelliteandinsituseasurfacetemperatureforclimatemonitoring,modelingandenvironmentalstudies.EarthSystemScienceDataDiscuss.,doi10.5194/essd-2015-44,inreview.

Bates,J.J.etal.,2015: Sustainedproductionofmultidecadal climaterecords-LessonsfromtheNOAAClimateDataRecordProgram. Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,e-View, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00015.1.

Becker,E.A.,etal., 2014:PredictingseasonaldensitypatternsofCaliforniacetaceansbasedonhabitatmodels. Endang SpeciesRes,23,1–22,doi:10.3354/esr00548.

Becker,E.A.,etal.,(Inpress):Movingtowardsdynamicoceanmanagement:Howwelldomodeledoceanproductspredictspeciesdistributions?RemoteSens.

Forney,K.A.,etal.,2015:Habitat-basedmodelsofcetaceandensityanddistributioninthecentralNorthPacific. Endang SpeciesRes,27,1–20,doi:10.3354/esr00632.

Liu,G.,etal.,2014:Reef-scalethermalstressmonitoringofcoralecosystems:New5-kmglobalproductsfromNOAACoralReefWatch.RemoteSens,6,11579–11606,doi:10.3390/rs61111579.

Taylor,K.E.,etal.,2012:AnoverviewofCMIP5andtheexperimentdesign.BullAmer MeteorSoc, 93,485–498, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.

VanVuuren,D.P.etal.,2011:Therepresentativeconcentrationpathways:Anoverview.ClimaticChange, 109,5–31,doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z.

Fig.5.Model-basedestimatesofdensity(animalskm-2) anddistributionforthetropicalBryde’swhaleshowingvariabilityinthecentralNorthPacific.Topthreepanelsshowpredictions,andbottompanelsshowmulti-yearaveragedensityandconfidenceintervals.(Forneyetal.2015)

Short-beakedcommondolphinDelphinusdelphisCaliforniaCurrent

Fig.6.Densitiesofanimalskm-2 (a)fromsummermodelsbuiltusingDOISSTand(b)theresultingwinterpredictions.Blackdotsshowactualsightinglocationsfromsummershipsurveys(a)andaerialsurveysthatcoveredasmallerstudyarea(b).Largersightingdotsindicatemoreanimals.(Beckeretal.2014)

Dall’sporpoisePhocoenoides dalliCaliforniaCurrent

FinwhaleBalaenoptera physalusCaliforniaCurrent

Fig.7.Interannual variabilityofcetaceandistribution.Model-basedestimatesofsummer/falldensity(animalskm-2)anddistributionforsixdifferentyears,1991–2008.Blackdotsareactualsightinglocationsduringshipsurveysconductedineachyear.Modeldetails:Beckeretal.(Inpress).

Fig.3.Timeseriesofthe1982–2015annualpercentageof(¼)° reefpixelsexperiencingsevereheatstresslevels(AlertLevel1and2)andtheassociatedtrends.

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1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012

Percen

tageofR

eefPixels(%)

Year

PercentageofReefPixelsExperiencingBleachingAlertLevel1&2(1982-2015,OISSTv2-based)

AlertLevel1and2AlertLevel2Linear(AlertLevel1and2)Linear(AlertLevel2)

Fig.8.ModelSSTsin°Cfor(a)CMIP5historicalrunfortheperiod1982–2011,(b)CMIP5RCP6.0simulationsoftheendof21st centuryand(c)themagnitudeofthetemperatureincrease.

Fig.9.CaribbeanregionprojectedSSTsfor2071–2100from(a)CMIP5RCP6.0(11-ModelMean);(b)adjustedusingCMIP5historicalminusDOISSThasbetterdefinedoceanfeatures.

a)

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d)

CoralBleachingHeatStress

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Bryde’s whaleBalaenoptera edeniCentralNorthPacific

ThefifthphaseoftheCoupledModelIntercomparison Project(CMIP5)providesestimatesoffutureSSTs(Tayloretal.2012)underdifferentscenarios(calledrepresentativeconcentrationpathwaysorRCPs;VanVuuren etal.,2011).Simulationsofthehistoricperiodarealsodonetocomparemodelperformanceagainstcurrentobservations.ForRCP6.0(mediumstabilizationscenario),averageSSTcouldincreaseupto~7°Cby

theendofthiscentury(Fig.8).Tomatchthehigherresolutionrequiredbyecologicalapplications,modelSSTscanbe“adjusted”usingthedifferencebetweenmodelSSTsandDOISSTforacommonperiod(e.g.,1982–2011,Fig.9).

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b)

Winter(aerial)

a)

Summer(ship)

Animalskm–2

CDR’scanbefoundhere:www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdr

OISSTinformationcanbefoundhere:www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oisst