Francesca Marcucci, Lucio Torrisiwith the contribution of Valeria Montesarchio, ISMAR-CNR
CNMCA, National Meteorological Center,Italy
First experiments with COSMO-ME-EPS
Outline• The Ensemble Data Assimilation at CNMCA: Local
Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF)• Towards the probabilistic forecast: the COSMO-ME
EPS • First runs with COSMO-ME EPS• A sea state EPS: NETTUNO-EPS• Future developments
7 km40 v.l.
2.8 km50 v.l.
- compressible equations- parameterized convection
- compressible equations- explicit convection
CNMCA NWP SYSTEM since 1 June 11The operational CNMCA short-range ensemble prediction system is based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) approach (Bonavita, Torrisi and Marcucci, 2008, 2010), for the data assimilation component (estimation of the initial conditions), and the COSMO regional model for the prognostic one.
LETKF analysis ensemble (40+1 members) every 6h using TEMP, PILOT, SYNOP, SHIP, BUOY, VAD/Wind Profilers, AMDAR-ACAR-AIREP, MSG3-MET7 AMV, MetopA-B scatt. winds, NOAA/MetopA AMSUA radiances+ Land SAF snow mask, IFS SST analysis once a day
Local Area Modelling: COSMO
EnKF DA
COSMO-ME (7km) ITALIAN MET SERVICE10 km45 v.l.
Control StateControl StateAnalysisAnalysis
The operational forecast up to 48 hours is done using the deterministic member
time BG Forecasts
timeInitial conditions
BG Forecasts
Initial conditions
Analysis Step Analysis Step
Forecast Step Forecast Step
timeInitial conditions BG Forecasts
Analysis Step Analysis Step
BG Forecast Step BG Forecast Step
ENS MEAN
CONTROL RUN
Actually only the assimilation is based on the ensemble techniqueThe 40 + 1 forecast members are run up to 9 hours in order to produce the BG ensemble for the next analysis step
The Ensemble Data Assimilation at CNMCA
7
A first implementation of COSMO-ME EPS has being tested at CNMCA in the framework of MYWAVE project ( short range sea state EPS based on COSMO-ME EPS: NETTUNO EPS)
The main characteristics of COSMO-ME EPS are: Domain and resolution: COSMO model is integrated on the same domain of the CNMCA-LETKF system. IC and BC: initial conditions are derived from the CNMCA-LETKF system. Lateral boundaries conditions are from IFS deterministic run perturbed using ECMWF-EPS. Model error: stochastics physics perturbation tendencies will be evaluated. Forecast range: the 40+1 COSMO forecast members are running up to 48 hours in order to produce the wind forecast to be given as input to the NETTUNO system at 00 UTC.
BG
IC
BG Forecasts
Analysis Step Analysis Step
BG Forecast Step BG Forecast Step
Analysis Step Analysis Step
time
Toward a probabilistic forecast system: the COSMO-ME EPS
The implementation of a short range EPS based on COSMO-ME is straightforward “extending” the forecast members integration
27 nov 2012 00 UTC
First run with COSMO-ME EPS
40 members with 0.09° grid spacing, 26km (18hPa) model top, 45 vertical levels, IC from CNMCA LETKF, BC from deterministic IFS perturbed by ECMWF EPS
+18-24 +24-30 +30-36 +36-42
CONTROL RUN
EPS NOSP MEAN
EPS NOSP PROB20
27 nov 2012
COSMO-ME EPS
12
NETTUNO (Sea State) EPSpart of MYWAVE project
NETTUNO is a high resolution local scale wave forecast system operational in the Mediterranean Sea based on the COSMO-ME and WAM models (In cooperation with ISMAR-CNR of Venice)
The sea state probabilistic forecast is obtained driving the wave model using the hourly COSMO-ME EPS wind forecast members The NETTUNO-EPS consists of 40+1 members, that are integrated at 00 UTC up to 48 hour forecast in the Mediterranean basin
13Meeting 27 Maggio 2013
Time evolution of the ensemble mean
NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS
ens mean
22 may 2013
14Meeting 27 Maggio 2013
NETTUNO (Sea State) EPSTime evolution of the ensemble spread
ens spread
15Meeting 27 Maggio 2013
NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS
ens mean 06
ens mean 12
ens spread 06
ens spread 12
16Meeting 27 Maggio 2013
Confronto media-deviazione standard
NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS
ens mean 18
ens mean 24
ens spread 18
ens spread 24
17Meeting 27 Maggio 2013
Confronto media-deviazione standard
NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS
ens mean 30
ens mean 36
ens spread 30
ens spread 36
18Meeting 27 Maggio 2013
Confronto media-deviazione standard
NETTUNO (Sea State) EPS
ens mean 42
ens mean 48
ens spread 42
ens spread 48
Future Developments
• Calibration/tuning of the COSMO-ME EPS • Evaluation of stochastic physics impact over a long
period• Validation of the NETTUNO-EPS • Soil moisture perturbation
Thanks for your attention!