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Future Grids in Australia
ADD BUSINESS UNIT/FLAGSHIP NAME
Luke Reedman | PowerFactory Users' Conference and Future Networks Technical Seminar 2013
6 September2013
ENERGY FLAGSHIP
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In this talk
• Where have we come from
• Some recent changes
• The next 10-20 years
2 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
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Where have we come from
(last 10 years)
Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman3 |
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Peak and average demand
4 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Source: CSIRO calculations from AEMO data
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Electricity generation
5 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
0
50
100
150
200
250T
Wh
AUS Principal electricity generation by fuel type (TWh)
Wind
Solar
Oil products
Natural gas
Coal seam methane
Brown coal
Black coal
Biofuels
Hydro
Source: ESAA (2013), Electricity Gas Australia 2013
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Wholesale electricity prices
6 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
NSW
QLD
SA
SNOWY
TAS
VIC
$/M
Wh
Source: AEMO
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Retail electricity prices
7 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Sources: ABS 2012, Producer Price Indexes, Australia, cat. no. 6427.0; Consumer Price Index, Australia, cat.
no. 6401.0.
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Some recent changes
Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman8 |
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Electricity consumption declining
9 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
188
190
192
194
196
198
200
202
204
206
2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
Consumption (TWh)
Source: ESAA (2013), Electricity Gas Australia 2013
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Electricity consumption declining
10 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
TW
hConsumption by NEM State (TWh)
TAS
SA
QLD
VIC
NSW & ACT
Total Consumption
Source: ESAA (2013), Electricity Gas Australia 2013
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Possible reasons for NSW
11 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Source: Intelligent Energy Systems (2013), IES Insider, Issue No. 14
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Solar PV
12 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Source: Australian PV Association
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Solar PV
13 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
End of Solar Bonus
Scheme, April 2011
Reduction of solar Credits
Multiplier, June 2011
Reduction of Solar Credits
Multiplier, June 2012
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12
kWMW
Solar PV Capacity in Australia
Solar PV Capacity
Average PV system size
Source: Clean Energy Regulator
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Peak demand
14 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Source: CSIRO calculations from AEMO data
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‘Strong’ La Nina on the east coast
15 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
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Electricity generation
16 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
0
50
100
150
200
250T
Wh
AUS Principal electricity generation by fuel type (TWh)
Wind
Solar
Oil products
Natural gas
Coal seam methane
Brown coal
Black coal
Biofuels
Hydro
Source: ESAA (2013), Electricity Gas Australia 2013
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Average wholesale prices down
17 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
194,000
196,000
198,000
200,000
202,000
204,000
206,000
208,000
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
Average price ($/MWh)Total Energy GWh
Total energy Average price
Source: ESAA (2013), Electricity Gas Australia 2013
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Wholesale price spikes subdued
18 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
37 35
66
34
102
131
120
48
88
47
27
175
39 37
22
12 11
59
1
22
12
0
1319
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
NSW QLD SA VIC TAS NEM
Da
ys a
bo
ve $
30
0
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
Source: ESAA (2013), Electricity Gas Australia 2013
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The next 10-20 years
Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman19 |
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The next 10-20 years
• Will electricity consumption continue to decline?
• Will peak demand rebound?
• What about centralised generation?
• More PV?
• Prices rising?
• What about storage and EVs?
• Can retailers keep their customers?
20 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
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Electricity consumption forecast
Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman21 |
Source: AEMO, National Electricity Forecasting Report 2013
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
Financial yearResidential and commercial* Industrial Consumption Transmission LossesAuxiliary Loads Rooftop PV Energy EfficiencyAnnual energy - as generated Annual energy - as sent out
An
nu
al e
ner
gy
seg
men
ts
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Electricity consumption growth, some uncertainty
22 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Source: AEMO, National Electricity Forecasting Report 2013
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
An
nu
al e
ner
gy
con
sum
pti
on
(G
Wh
)
2013 High 2013 Medium 2013 Low Actuals
2013 NEFR native annual energy forecasts (10-year outlook - GWh) - NEM
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Peak demand rebound
23 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Source: AEMO, National Electricity Forecasting Report 2013
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Peak demand rebound
24 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
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More rooftop PV
Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman25 |
Source: AEMO, National Electricity Forecasting Report 2013
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
An
nu
al e
ner
gy
con
sum
pti
on
(G
Wh
)
2013 High 2013 Medium 2013 Low Actuals 2012 High 2012 Medium 2012 Low
2013 NEFR rooftop PV annual energy forecasts(10-year outlook - GWh) - NEM
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Peak demand and solar PV: market level
Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman26 |
Source: CSIRO calculations from AEMO data
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Peak demand and solar PV: network level
Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman27 |
Source: SKM (2013), Assessment of Economic Benefits of a National Energy Savings Initiative
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Retail prices up some more
28 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Source: AEMC (2013), Electricity Price Trends Report
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The ‘death spiral’• Networks have fixed costs because they build capacity ($/kVA)
• They recover their costs through energy charges (c/kWh)
• If energy consumption falls (e.g., PV, energy efficiency), fewer kWh to recover fixed costs
• Creates a revenue shortfall
• In the next round, the network charge (c/kWh) has to rise
• This feeds through to higher retail prices
• This leads to greater incentive to reduce consumption
• And so on…
Energy pathways | Luke Reedman29 |
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Storage, just around the corner?
30 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
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Can retailers keep their customers?
Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman31 |
Source: AER (2012), State of the Energy Market 2012
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Likely investment
32 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Source: ESAA (2013), Electricity Gas Australia 2013
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%other
hydro
geothermal
solar
coal
gas
wind
Percentage of proposed power stations by fuel type (MW)
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More wind, but…
33 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Source: Reedman et al. (2012), ‘Quantifying the Impact of Setback Limits on the Possible
Deployment of Wind Farms in Australia’, Paper presented at the International Energy Workshop.
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Large scale solar coming, PV…
34 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
2013 - 10 MWp at Greenough River, WAPhoto provided by First Solar
2007 - 305 kWp on Alice Springs Crown CasinoPhoto provided by SunPower Corporation
2012 - 1.22 MWp at University of QLD
2009 - 1.0 MWp on Adelaide Showground
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… can solar thermal fight back?
35 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Source: U.S. Department of Energy
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What about gas?
Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman36 |
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
PJ
Natural gas 2009-10
projections
Natural gas 2010-11
projections
Natural gas 2011-12
projections
Comparison of historical Australian domestic natural gas demand forecasts
Source: ESAA (2013), Electricity Gas Australia 2013
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CCS and nuclear
37 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
CCS
• Number of technologies being investigated
• Delays in timeline
• CCS expected to be at commercial scale in 2020 at the earliest
Nuclear power
• Currently prohibited in some states
• No local experience
• Lack of community acceptance
• Environmental issues and catastrophic risk
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New demand: electric vehicles
38 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mil
lio
n
Based on vehicle manufacturer projections
Based on IEA (2011)
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The take away
• Considerable uncertainty
• Demand has changed and will continue to change
• More modular centralised supply
• Less network build, but still needs spend
• Decreasing utilisation needs to be tackled (‘death spiral’ in the extreme case)
• Pricing needs to change, challenge is consumer buy-in
Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman39 |
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40 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman
Questions?
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Thank youDr Luke Reedman
Stream Leader, Energy ModellingCSIRO Energy Flagship
t +61 2 49606057
w www.csiro.au/Organisation-Structure/Flagships/Energy-Flagship.aspx
ENERGY FLAGSHIP
Acknowledgments
Paul Graham
John Ward
Chris Fell