Future Trends & ThemesSummary
Presented to Executive Steering Committee:April 12, 2017
22
Future Themesand Trends
Vision Workshop – Regional/Local Themes
Preparing forthe impact ofdemographicand economictrends that willreshape theentire region.
Creating asense of placeto attract newhigh-qualityworkers, who inturn attracthigh-qualityemployers.
Adapting travelpatterns for animprovedquality of life.
Supportingmultimodaltravel and high-capacity transitnetworks toconnectjurisdictionalactivity centers,and to connectto the region’score.
Supportingtransit-orientedgrowth.
The region and the Prince William area share the following key themes:
33333
National& Industry
Trends
Population&
Employment
Land Use
TravelDemand
SocialPreference
Technology
The Regional/Local themes and supporting information from National/industrytrends provide important insight into the future facing the PWC area and PRTC.
Preparing for Demographic andEconomic Trends
4
Significantly higher population growth rate
Preparing for demographicand economic trends
5
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
2000 - 2010 2010 - 2020 2020 - 2030 2030 - 2040
Fore
cast
Incr
ease
inPo
pula
tion
Year
Prince William County
Virginia
United States
Source: Virginia Employment Commission, Economic Information & Analytics; US Census
6
Lack of affordable housing in the DC Coreforcing out even high wage earners
Preparing for demographicand economic trends
Competitive employment market, strong economy
7
Une
mpl
oym
entR
ate
Source: Virginia Employment Commission, Economic Information & Analytics
Preparing for demographicand economic trends
Diverse Economy(Top Five Industries in Prince William CountyArea)1. Local and Federal Government2. Retail Trade3. Accommodation and Food Services4. Construction5. Health Care and Social Assistance
Data Center Investment• $2.4 Billion in Capital investment and
370 new jobs (2011-2016)• 10,000 acres identified as Data Center
Opportunity Zone in 2016
8Source: Virginia Employment Commission, Economic Information & Analytics
Preparing for demographicand economic trends
Fuel price decline has leveled off andprices are likely to increase
9Source: Virginia Employment Commission, Economic Information & Analytics
Preparing for demographicand economic trends
Commuter benefits will remain onpar with parking benefits
10Source: Virginia Employment Commission, Economic Information & Analytics
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
2012-2013 2014-2015 2016
Federal Transit and Parking Monthly Benefits
Parking Benefit Transit Benefit
Preparing for demographicand economic trends
Creating a sense of place
11
Common regional and local objectives and strategies tohelp create communities of choice:
Creating a Sense of Place
12
• Attracting high-quality workers toattract high-quality employers
• Mixed-used walkable communities• Promoting residents working close to
home• Attracting new companies and
businesses to targeted developmentareas
• Emphasizing strategic redevelopmentopportunities
13
Four out of five RECENT move respondents say that having stores,restaurants, and services within 15 minutes of home is very important
Creating a Sense of Place
83%
76%
72%
70%
66%
62%
57%
74%
75%
69%
63%
61%
62%
51%
84%
51%
50%
47%
58%
45%
33%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Having access to stores, restaurants, and services close to myhome (within about 15 minutes) is very important to me.
I would love to live within 15 minutes commute of my workand/or my school.
My ideal neighborhood would have a wide range of differentpeople and ages who live near me.
Communities should prioritize spending on easy, safe, andreliable public transportation such as light rail.
Prominent bike / walk paths from my home to stores,restaurants, and entertainment are part of my ideal
neighborhood.
I’d prefer the option to take close-by public transportation overusing a personal car.
Good public school systems are an indication of a healthy,happy neighborhood, regardless of whether or not I have
school-age children.
Millennials
Gen X
Boomer
Significantly more Millennial and Gen X respondents than Boomerrespondents agreed with most placemaking statements
n = 600
14
Creating a Sense of Place
15
• Areas with higher forecastdensities and a relatively evenpopulation /employment splitpresent best opportunities forefficient local transit service
• Creates financial opportunitiesthrough public-privatepartnerships and/or specific taxdistricts
Creating a Sense of Place
PRTC is well positioned with existing/future services targetedin areas of high-forecast employment growth
16
Creating a Sense of Place
Adapting travel patterns for animproved quality of life
17
of Virginiansbetween the
ages of 18 and 25who could havea driver’s licensechoose not to ordon’t have one
30%
Adapting travel patterns
18
US vehicle travel grew steadily during the TwentiethCentury, but peaked in 2006 and has declined since.
Source: USDOT
19
At the same time, transit use nationally has increased significantly
Source: APTA 2013
Adapting travel patterns
20
PWC Area’s Reduction in Driving Alone OutperformedOther Northern Virginia Rideshare Markets
Source: Virginia Travel Survey
76%69%68% 68%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Prince William Co. Area Other Northern Virginia
2007 2015
Adapting travel patterns
21Source: Virginia Travel Survey
Alternative Mode Commuters are SignificantlyMore Satisfied with their Trip to Work
46%
63%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Drive-alone commuter Alternative mode commuter% satisfaction with work commute
Adapting travel patterns
22
Adapting travel patterns
• PRTC and VRE have experienced lower ridership on Mondays and Fridays
• Many employers offer flexible “hoteling” space in place of assigned desks
• Alternative work schedules are becoming more popular to balance personalcommitments
• Office vacancy rates have generallyincreased over the past couple ofyears
• About 3% of the workforce now worksfrom home at least half of the time
Workplace habits are changing. Fewer peopleare going into the office on a daily basis
23
Transit agencies around the country are partnering with TNCs on pilotprograms to subsidize trips or provide connections for the “first and last mile”
Adapting travel patterns
24
Research and pilots of connected and autonomous vehicles are becoming moreprevalent but significant impacts to mobility are still years away
Adapting travel patterns
Supporting multimodal travel andhigh-capacity transit networks
25
26
Supporting MultimodalTravel
National/Regional Trends• Connecting centers within jurisdictions and connecting to the
regional core• Interconnected regional network of Express Lanes• High-capacity transit implementation
Common Local Objectives & Strategies• Increase percentage of citizens using transit• Provide access to alternative transportation choices• Reduce the need for automobile usage• Support technology for use in making travel decisions
27
Urban areas that are reaching the “built out” point are focusing on optimizing highwayoperations / maximizing throughput (e.g. express lanes, rideshare / transit).
Source: VDOT
Supporting MultimodalTravel
Regional MultimodalProject
PRTC Role
Description Partner inPlanning
OperatingService
Transform 66: Inside theBeltway
New commuter bus service R R
Transform 66: Outsidethe Beltway
New and expanded commuter busservice, expanded park-and-ridelots, and new TDM strategies
R R
I-395/I-95 Express Lanes Currently operating commuter busservice; ongoing study of additionalimprovements
R R
Richmond Highway(US 1) BRT
Proposed bus rapid transit R --
Rail Expansions Planning for VRE and Metrorailexpansions R --
28
PRTC will continue to play a major role in partnering on transportationinitiatives at all government levels
Supporting MultimodalTravel
Prince William CountyProposed Future Transit Alternatives
29
Locally, the PrinceWilliam County area
has envisioned afuture network of
high-capacity transit
Supporting MultimodalTravel
30
78%
22%
Park-and-Rides with PRTC Service (2016) –Approximately 9,300 spaces
Occupied Non-Occupied
• Park-and-Ride lots with PRTC busservice are well-utilized, especiallyones closest to interstates
• The Transform 66 Project includesapproximately 4,000 new spacesalong the I-66 Corridor with directaccess to new Express Lanes
• Park-and-Ride lots also used forcarpooling, vanpooling, andslugging
Supporting MultimodalTravel
31
PRTC has thepotential toincrease its
alreadyextensive
coverage ofthe region’s
activitycenters
Supporting MultimodalTravel
Supporting transit-oriented growth
32
National/Regional Trends• Mixed-use activity centers• Decrease in auto-focused
development
Common Objectives & Strategies• Standards for new development
to ensure accessibility to transit• Complete Street policies• Targeted growth areas
More than halfof all jobs in Northern
Virginia are alreadywithin a quarter-mile
of a transit facility
33
Supporting Transit Oriented Growth
34
The number ofjobs within
PRTC servicearea is amongthe highest of
NorthernVirginia bus
systems and isexpected to
grow
Source: NVTC/Virginia Tech
Supporting MultimodalTravel
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Fore
cast
edEm
ploy
men
t
Year
Forecasted Transit-Accessible Employment (MWCOG)
Metrobus Connector PRTC ART LCT DASH Metrorail CUE VRE
35
Nationally, regionally, and locally, jurisdictions and private developers are favoringa transit-oriented, mixed-use development approach (decreased emphasis on cars)
Supporting Transit Oriented Growth
Forecast Increase in Activity(Jobs + People)2015 - 2040
Fewer than 250
250 - 500
500 - 1,000
1,000 - 2,500
2,500 - 5,000
5,000 - 7,500
More than 7,500
Source: MWCOG Round 8.4 Forecasts
forecasted newjobs and people
within thePRTC bus service
area by 2040
1.38M
forecasted growthin employment
for PWC,Manassas, andManassas Park
69%
36
Localities with high growth must continue to put in place firm policieslinking transportation and land use
Supporting Transit Oriented Growth
37
Local entities around the Northern Virginia Region, including Prince WilliamCounty, are adopting design guidelines to foster transit oriented growth
• Complete Streets
• Transit Service LevelRequirements
• Lower Parking Minimums
• Enhanced Pedestrian andBicycle Accommodation
• ADA Compliance
Supporting Transit Oriented Growth
38
Transit-supportive areas inlocalities’ future land use plansrepresent potential areas forincreased transit service
Supporting Transit Oriented Growth