Download - Futures Thinking - ESPM - 2014
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DANIEL EGGER
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We cannot think about the solutionuntil we understand the problem. Wecannot understand the problem untilwe think about the solution. We cannotthink about the possibilities until weunderstand the changes. We cannotunderstand the changes until we thinkabout the possibilities.
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Thin FuturesNora Rayford
Thicker FuturesScott Smith
Colocar contexto nos problemas. Trabalhar com
problemas reais, com a diversidade, com o sistema
complexo; cheio de incertezas e dinâmico.
Uma representação de uma “utopia” super simplifcada
para uma classe consumidora. Não suporta
decisões estratégicas.
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THICKER Comportamento Humano
Zeitgeist
Contextualização
Antropologia
Cultura
Clifford Geertz
Social/Espiritual
UMA VERDADE MAIS COMPLETA
Arthur C. Clark
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THE REAL VOYAGE CONSIST NOT IN SEEKING
NEW LANDS, BUT IN SEEING WITH NEW EYES. Marcel Proust
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Fortune 500 - Turnover
Kaufmann Foundation, 2012
50%
12 17 22 26
65% das empresas originais do Fortune 500, saíram da lista após 30 anos
A velocidade das empresas saindo do índice aumentou em 400% após 1970.
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1 Existem muitos futuros
2 Os futuros não podem ser previstos
3 O Futuro é neutro
4 O amanhã é complexo
5 Gerando Valor Futuro
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PROSPECTIVE STUDIES
PROSPECTIVA
PROSPECTIVAPROGNOSTIC
FUTURIBLES
STRATEGIC FORESIGHT
FUTURE THINKING
FUTURE THINKING
FUTURING
GERACAO DE VALOR FUTURO
PROSFICÇÃO
FUTURE STUDIES
FUTURINGFUTURISTICS
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Equilíbrio pontual
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25anos10anos
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Outward boundExploratória
Inward boundNormativaVs.
PercepçõesTrends
DesejadosVisão
OPORTUNIDADE
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Preconventional futurist Personal futurist Imaginative futurist
Agenda-driven futurist Consensus-driven futurist Professional futurist
Future in relation to self (ego, personal vision) without a
broader understanding; idea
centric
Solve problems for themselves, within the convention of
society and influence the future
to their favor.
Future Visions, scenarios, about me
and others, sometimes breaking the convention and
norms of society
Works top-down as ideological, religious
or organizational preferred agendas and their relates
problems.
Bottom-up by group- community-institutionally, and
social preferred futures. (managers)
Offer services, describe possible,
probable, or preferable futures and help to apply
this.
SOC
IAL
RO
LES
Fonte: Acceleration Studies Foundation
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Critical Futurist Alternative Futurist Predictive Futurist
Evolutionary Futurist Validating Futurist Epistemological futurist
Explores, deconstruct, and critiques future
vision, perspectives and value systems.
Solve problems for themselves, within the convention of
society and influence the future
to their favor.
Forecasts probable futures, in a
statistical sense, that appear
independent of human choice.
Evolutionary possibilities of
macro systems and larger systems.
Validade the completeness and
accuracy of methologies for the
futures
Offer services, describe possible,
probable, or preferable futures and help to apply
this.
MET
HO
DO
LOG
ICA
L
Fonte: Acceleration Studies Foundation
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• are about human (and AI in the future)• are about using your BRAIN• are about a mindset• are about complexity• are about uncertainty• are about patterns• are about research• are about concepts• are about Storytelling• are about creating choices
DESIGN THINKING ANDFUTURES THINKING…
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• is about a problem• It is about context and creating
empathy• Is about “real persons”• is about experiences, meaning,
delight• is about Insights• is about solutions• is about volume• is about a (physical) prototype
DESIGN THINKING…
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• is about future contexts, understanding, possibilities and creating empathy
• is about Value.• is about the changes in value• is about implications• is about Insights.• is about the hidden question • is about context relevancy • is about society + individual• is about real and average persons• is about prototyping strategic options
FUTURES THINKING…
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Choque ou Estresse
Contra
Resiliência
Colapse
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O framework de Valor Futuro representa um processo lógico que integra a geração de
novos valores num ambiente de incerteza. A entrega principal é a compreensão das
mudanças que virão e utilização do processo estratégico para influenciar os possíveis
futuros.
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Strategic Planning
Strategic Management
Strategic Planning
Strategic Planning
Futuring Futuring
Strategic Management
Innovation
Business Intelligence
Strategic Planning
Futuring
Futuring
Innovation
Probable Preferable
Possible Plausible
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Não existe somente um caminhoO aspecto fundamental para a geração de valor é o contexto da empresa e dasociedade. Não existe nenhum método, metodologia ou ferramenta de inovação oude futuro que caiba para todas as organizações, cada uma é diferente. O Framework,portanto, não é prescritivo e reforça a importância do contexto existente, desejos elimitações.
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Integrativo não ExclusivoMuitas organizações já investiram muito tempo e dinheiro em ferramentas,metodologias e métodos. O Framework de Geração de Valor Futuro integra, aproveitae adapta o já existente. A Framework conecta, facilita a adaptação e integra osrecursos externos e internos à disposição.
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O foco é mais amploUma das principais premissas da geração de valor futuro é a integração da percepçãodo indivíduo e da sociedade. O framework conecta as mudanças externas com ascapacidades internas da organização. Este equilíbrio entre gerador do valor e aqueleque percebe resulta em novas formas de relacionamentos e com isso umatransferência de valor positivo entre as partes.
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Não é uma ferramenta de previsãoO Framework conecta o futuro com o presente. Isto no entanto não significa que oresultado do trabalho é uma previsão. Não existem fatos do futuro, somente osdesejos, o que será possível e provável. O Framework de Geração de Valor Futuro,equilibra a imprevisibilidade o futuro com a necessidade organizacional através de umprocesso ágil que valida constantemente as mudanças tendo em vista a geração devalor futuro.
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Ciclo preparatório Ciclo decisório
Mapeamento dos dados existentes e não existentes
Identificação de metodologias, métodos e ferramentas
Iniciar o mapeamento das necessidades, barreiras e parceiros
Aproximação com a lógica
Integração de novas perspectivas do 1º cicloMastery nas ferramentas e disseminação
Processo decisório
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7. PORTFOLIO DE OPÇÕES estratégicas -Iniciativas, projetos, ideias que aumentam a agilidade estratégica alinhado ao valor futuro.
1. PROPOSTA DE VALOR - O valor que a sua organização cria e é percebido pelos stakeholders no presente.
2. PORTFOLIO DE MUDANÇA – Fatores de mudanças que podem impactar as lógicas organizacionais ou criar novas oportunidades no mercado futuro.
3. CONTEXTOS FUTUROS - Cenários de novas lógicas possíveis e prováveis. Elas são compostas por comportamentos e tecnologias. Ponto de partida no presente.
4. VISÕES - A visão representa as aspirações da organização e dos participantes sobre o futuro como também contribuições organizacionais.
5. PROPOSTA DE VALOR FUTURA- O valor que seus clientes percebem dos seus futuros produtos e serviços no cenário escolhido.
6. POLÍTICAS DE VALOR - Os conectores que guiam a execução estratégica unindo a geração de valor futuro e presente.
future
present
1
2 3
46
7
5
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PRONTO FIRME O FIM
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Inspiration Cycle
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VariáveisPercepçãoDescriçãoOrigem (t, s)
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VetorDireçãoMudançaAtenção!Gatilho?Velocity f(t)?
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TrendDireçãoConexão
Por que? +3 níveis
Expansão? +200%
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DrivingForceEventosTrendsMudanças
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CounterMovementsEventosTrendsMudanças
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B
A
C
StructuralCertantiesKnown EventsLogical Structure
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AtratorVínculosAtemporal
Por que?Conexão?Potencial?Gatilho?
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Cisne NegroBaixa ProbabilidadeAlto Impacto
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