Download - GEOG5839.19, Dendroclimatology
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November 13
Dendroclimatology
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Dr. Brian Luckman University of Western Ontario
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Tree-ring-derived records have played a prominent role in a!empts to establish how climate has varied in the recent past.
“ ”Jones et al.
The Holocene, 2009
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What characteristics of tree-ring records make them useful tools
to understand ancient climates?
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CLIMATE FROM TREES
COMPLICATIONS AND CHALLENGES
TAKING THE PLANET’S TEMPERATURE
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CLIMATE FROM TREES
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2010 Jan-Aug temperature anomaly"h!p://www.giss.nasa.gov/
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Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001
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Ct = Rt - At - δD1t - δD2t - Et
THE PRINCIPLE OF AGGREGATE TREE GROWTH
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THE PRINCIPLE OF
ECOLOGICAL AMPLITUDE
THE PRINCIPLE OF
SITE SELECTION
THE PRINCIPLE OF
AGGREGATE TREE GROWTH
THE PRINCIPLE OF
REPLICATION
STANDARDIZATION
THE PRINCIPLE OF
CROSS-DATING
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How do we KNOW that tree rings are tracking a SPECIFIC climate?
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Source: Minyoung Choi
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Single-site reconstruction
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Source: Hughes and Funkhouser, 1998
tree rings
rain gauges
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correlation The Pearson product-moment correlation coe#cient is probably the single most widely used statistic for summarizing the relationship between two variables.
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variable ‘X’
variable ‘Y’ r = +1.0
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variable ‘X’
variable ‘Y’ r = -1.0
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variable ‘X’
variable ‘Y’r = +0.85
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Ring-width index
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CORRELATIONFUNCTION
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Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001
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Ring-width index
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Ring-width index
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yt = axt + b + ε
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yt = axt + b + ε
the climate variable of interest (at year t)
the tree-ring variable (at year t)
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Source: Woodhouse et al., 2006
Tree rings can provide extra-ordinarily good estimates (sometimes)
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TAKING THE PLANET’S TEMPERATURE
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Temperature-sensitive trees"Northeastern Alaska
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Source: Esper et al., Science, 2002
Long, temperature-sensitive tree-ring records have been used to estimate average temperatures across the entire hemisphere or globe.
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Source: Esper et al., Science, 2002
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Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2006
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Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2006
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Source: Osborne and Bri$a, 2006
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Tree-rings also allow the reconstruction of large-scale regional or global temperature pa!erns defined by large networks of chronologies.
“ ”Brian Luckman
Geoscience Canada, 2010
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Source: Bri$a et al., Global and Planetary Change, 2004
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How do we KNOW that tree rings are any GOOD at “reverse predicting”
past climate?
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1883“THE LOUDEST SOUND IN MODERN HISTORY”
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Krakatau, Indonesia 1883
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h!p://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/bri$a/temmaps/
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Mount Tambora, Indonesia Its eruption in 1815 was the most explosive since AD 180
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1816THE “YEAR WITHOUT A SUMMER”
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h!p://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/bri$a/temmaps/
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Huaynaputina Peru
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h!p://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/bri$a/temmaps/
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Source: Bri$a et al., Global and Biological Change, 2004
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Photograph: Mark Anbinder
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Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007
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COMPLICATIONS AND CHALLENGES
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Tree rings are not thermometers or rain gages.“ ”Keith Bri$a and colleagues
Climate Variations and Forcing Mechanisms of the Last 2000 Years, 1996
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THED I V E R G E N C E
PROBLEM
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Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2008
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the ‘divergence problem’ is defined as the tendency for tree growth at some previously temperature-limited northern sites to demonstrate a weakening in mean temperature response in recent decades.
Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2008
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Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2008
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It is important to stress that not all high-latitude regions display this apparent decoupling between observed and dendroclimatically estimated temperatures.
“ ”Phil Jones and colleagues
The Holocene, 2009
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Source: Bri$a et al., Global and Biological Change, 2004
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November 13
Dendroclimatology
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Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007
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SURFACE TEMPERATURERECONSTRUCTIONSFOR THE LAST 2 ,000 YEARS
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCILOF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
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Tree-ring-derived records have played a prominent role in a!empts to establish how climate has varied in the recent past.
“ ”Jones et al.
The Holocene, 2009
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GEOG5839NEXT CLASS