Geopolitical issues

Part III

Population displacements and migration

Session 5

Introduction

Throughout history, men have always migrated for environmental reasons

But that’s also a reason largely ignored by researchers and policy makers.

Despite growing concerns

Linkage between environment and migration still controversial

Historical examples

The emergence of the concept First mentioned in the 1970s First UNEP report in 1985 Growing interest in the mid-2000s:

Realisation of the impacts of climate change

Major natural disasters Tsunami 2004 Katrina 2005 Pakistan earthquake 2005

> Confusion between displacements linked to climate change and other environmental degradation.

A complex relationship

Migration itself is a very complex processInvolves a wide array of factors, individual decision

Environmental factors are linked with economic, social and political factorsWhen is environmental pressure the primary factor?

Environmental disruption can be a cause and a consequence of migration Resource scarcity, ‘green’ conflicts,...

Migration can also help to reduce the presure on resources

Which impacts of climate change can lead to displacements?

1. Sea-level riseCoastal regions will be first and most affected

Source: NASA

A sea-level rise of 1cm puts 1 million people at risk of displacement

2. Droughts and land degradation Impacts on migration difficult to forecast

Migration flows tend to decrease at the peak of droughts

That’s because households affect their resources to primary needs.

3. Extreme meteorological events

Characteristics of the migrants Positive relationship between environmental degradation and migration.

Different factors intermingle, but environmental factors are of growing importance. Definitional issue

These factors increase the constraints to migration Rise in forced migration

Migration flows are often internal, and happening on short distances Affected countries bear all the burden of migration.

The most vulnerable are often unable to migrate. Migration is expensive

Issue of the definition Difficult

Mostly internal migration Mingles with other factors

Controversial Alarmists vs sceptics A broad definition invites large numbers Different agendas Wide variety of terms (often misnomers)

Important Policy-wise Allows to forecast numbers

A disconnection from the realities of migration

Migrants are seen as expiatory, resourceless victims of climate change. Many of them don’t consider themselves as victims, or don’t want to be considered as such.

Migrants are resourceful agents – they are not the most vulnerable

Migration is perceived as an adaptation failure In many cases, it can be an adaptation strategy

We assume a direct, causal relationship between climate change and migration.

We expect that these displacements will be forced and international.

We assume that the nature and extent of the migration flows will depend upon the impacts of climate change. Environmental determinism

Climate-induced migration often perceived as a threat to security. In many cases, it can actually improve human security.

London Futures, exhibition at the Museum of London

Example 1Tuvalu

Key facts about Tuvalu Successfully marketed itself as a country at risk of being washed away by sea-level rise, sending out the first ‘climate change refugees’

Archipelago of nine islands, five of them are coral atolls.

Around 9,500 inhabitants; 4,500 live on the main atoll, Funafuti.

26 km2, one of the world’s highest population density (373, but 1,610 in Funafuti)

Highest point at 4 m above sea-level

Tuvalu’s economy

Only resources are stamps, « .tv » internet domain and fishing licences

Wholly artificial economy, entirely dependant upon international aid (trust fund, remittances, etc.)

Very few jobs and high unemployment rate

Climate change

Major concern amongst inhabitants, fear of a brutal tsunami or hurricane

Extreme vulnerability to sea-level rise

Effects of climate change difficult to assess

Lack of scientific data about sea-level rise, no measurements

People rely on anecdotal evidence, oral environmental history

King tides every year, in February-March

King tides

Other environmental issues

Overpopulation Waste disposal ‘Borrow pits’ Lack of drinkable water

Soil salinity

Migration Important internal migration, from outer islands to Funafuti

About 3,000 Tuvaluans living in Auckland

Forced or voluntary migration? Issue of timescale

The whole region is highly prone to migration, part of Polynesian lifestyle

New Zealand is the only possible destination: Pacific Access Category Seasonal labour scheme

Resettlement Considered many times in Tuvalu’s history In 1890s, suggested as a solution to overpopulation problem

Population of Funafuti relocated on an outer island by Americans during WWII

Purchase of the island of Kioa in 1951 Repeated plea by the government, in relation to climate change

However, works by John Campbell (Waikato U.) show difficulties in community relocation

Expatriates in Auckland About 3,000 Tuvaluans living in West Auckland

NZ Government supporting some aspects of cultural life

Some weight in national and local politics

‘Pull’ factor of migration

Government’s dilemmas

Adapt or flee? Role of the state is crucial The government is actually encouraging emigration - ‘We want to give people a choice before it is too late’

But also needs to keep attracting international aid

Preparing resettlement would clash with population’s views

Do people move because of climate change?

Wide range of factors: Family and social networks in New Zealand Job opportunities, better wages Only the wealthier can afford to migrate ... And concerns about sea-level rise

Key factor: uncertainty about the future, that acts as a trigger.

Uncertainty and futurity

People do not migrate for themselves, but for their children - some of them born in New Zealand

Concerns about the future of Tuvalu seem more important than actual degradations of the environment

Issue of uncertainty and futurity

Migration as a risk-reduction strategy for the family

Example 2Katrina

Basic facts One of the worst disasters in US history:

About 2,000 fatalities 75 % of homes in New Orleans destroyed 1,200,000 people evacuated on the Gulf Coast US$ 85 billion damage Disaster mainly due to the levee breaches One quarter of New Orleans population without car

Help didn’t arrive before Setember 3rd, four days after the disaster

Evacuation Mandatory evacuation ordered by Mayor Nagin on August 28.

Overall quite successful: 85 % evacuated

About 60,000 were stranded in the city Because they had no car Because they were ill, old, or disabled Because they had pets Because they didn’t know where to go Because they were unwilling to leave

Evacuation patterns Extremely diversified

Some people traveled very far away, others stayed relatively close.

Some traveled on their own, others were evacuated.

Some stayed with friends/relatives, others stayed in hotels/rented properties

Some could choose where they were going, others not

And some did not move at all.

> The perception of the evacuation was also very diverse.

Three conclusions> Despite the collective dimension of the tragedy, the evacuation process was an individual process.

> Forced or voluntary migration? People’s perceptions are very different.

> The most vulnerable were far less off

Most vulnerable were far less off

Many were stranded in the city. Those evacuated had no choice of their destination

This affected their ability to cope while away

Tend to blame Government and FEMA more severely.

Issue of adaptability

> Katrina was also, and maybe most of all, a social disaster.

Return Also very diverse patterns: some returned quickly, others after some time, others not at all.

Only about half of the population has returned to the city: 37 % live in Louisiana 34 % live in Texas (mostly Houston) 9 % live in Georgia (mostly Atlanta) 20 % live in another state

Only 11 % plan to return 52 % are certain they will not return Migration rather than displacement

Exemple 3 - Fukushima

(22 Apr – 30 Sep 2011)

(30 Sep 2011 - present)

Restricted Area Restricted Area

Evacuation-Prepared Area

Deliberate Evacuation Area

Deliberate Evacuation Area

Specific Spots Recommended for

Evacuation Specific Spots Recommended for

Evacuation

Evacuation zones

Trauma and tensions

http://www.devast-project.org

Policy responses: Different directions Environmental policies

Rapid evolution since the 1990s People displaced by natural disasters and/or climate change increasingly taken into account

New actors and structures: IASC, CCEMA, rise of adaptation in climate talks

New instruments: Hyogo Framework Operational Guidelines on Human Rights and Natural Disasters

Adaptation Funds

> Climate negotiations often considered as the central policy forum with regard to environmental migration

Migration and asylum policies Have not really taken into account environmental factors so far

Very little progress in the governance of migration, no new instruments

Exception: temporary protection status

Two points to consider: Traditional theories of migration are environmentally-blind

Migration scholars have a lesser impact on policy design than environmental scholars

Legal matters

People displaced by climate change are not refugees, according to the 1951 Geneva Convention:

No political persecution But isn’t climate change a violent, political persecution to the most vulnerable?

Not always a border crossing The displaced people flee their livelihood, not always their country

Forced migration? Climate change adds a new dimension to the traditional distinction between forced and voluntary migration.

Two key policy issues

Enabling the right to leave Enabling the right to choose

This will require different policy shifts: Going beyond humanitarian aid Not discriminating between displacements associated with climate change and those that are not.

Not restricting oneself to refugee law (Hyogo Framework, etc.)

Not focusing only on those who leave, but also one those who stay, sometimes forcibly.

Enabling the right to leave A challenge of migration policy The right to leave is the key condition of asylum, originating after the Peace of Westphalia.

This right is currently jeopardised by environmental change.

The most vulnerable often find themselves unable to leave Because they don’t have the resources to do so Because of barriers to migration

Their life, health and livelihood are directly exposed to danger

Migration as a risk-reduction strategy Issue of pro-active population displacements

Enabling the right to chooseA challenge of adaptation policy Many of the migrants are forced migrants, and many of the stayers are forced stayers.

Adaptation In the origin region, adaptation will reduce the environmental constraints to migration.

Migration itself can be an adaptation strategy. Adaptation will also be needed in the destination regions.

Adaptation and disaster-risk reduction Burden-sharing and internationalisation of the costs.

No discrimination between climate change and other disasters.