![Page 1: Gestational Diabetes case study - pambayesian.org · 2.Care pathway (community vs. hospital). 3.Initiation and titration of diabetes therapy. 4.Delivery decision. ... No previous](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022021716/5cdfcccf88c993f4758cb6fe/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Gestational Diabetes case studyMariana Raniere
![Page 2: Gestational Diabetes case study - pambayesian.org · 2.Care pathway (community vs. hospital). 3.Initiation and titration of diabetes therapy. 4.Delivery decision. ... No previous](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022021716/5cdfcccf88c993f4758cb6fe/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Revise BN structureQuestions
DATA
Train the model
Validate
Refine
Process of BN development
Expert’s Knowledge
![Page 3: Gestational Diabetes case study - pambayesian.org · 2.Care pathway (community vs. hospital). 3.Initiation and titration of diabetes therapy. 4.Delivery decision. ... No previous](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022021716/5cdfcccf88c993f4758cb6fe/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Decision Points
1. Diagnosis of GDM at screening.2. Care pathway (community vs. hospital).3. Initiation and titration of diabetes therapy.4. Delivery decision.5. Prediction and management of postpartum type 2 diabetes risk.
Prediction v Decision• What information?• Reasoning?
![Page 4: Gestational Diabetes case study - pambayesian.org · 2.Care pathway (community vs. hospital). 3.Initiation and titration of diabetes therapy. 4.Delivery decision. ... No previous](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022021716/5cdfcccf88c993f4758cb6fe/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Decision points for Diagnostic of GDMDiagnostic BN
• Inputs• Risk factors• Test results
• Predict: GDM• Use:
• Initially risk factors only
• ... Then with added test
Diagnostic DecisionAlmost everyone screened
• Decide on blood test
• No test, one test, combined test
• Diagnosis following test• One or two
stages
![Page 5: Gestational Diabetes case study - pambayesian.org · 2.Care pathway (community vs. hospital). 3.Initiation and titration of diabetes therapy. 4.Delivery decision. ... No previous](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022021716/5cdfcccf88c993f4758cb6fe/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Diagnostic Reasoning with a Bayesian Network
Evidence
Evidence
Belief Update
![Page 6: Gestational Diabetes case study - pambayesian.org · 2.Care pathway (community vs. hospital). 3.Initiation and titration of diabetes therapy. 4.Delivery decision. ... No previous](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022021716/5cdfcccf88c993f4758cb6fe/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Diagnostic BN
Prediction
Risk Factors
Test results
![Page 7: Gestational Diabetes case study - pambayesian.org · 2.Care pathway (community vs. hospital). 3.Initiation and titration of diabetes therapy. 4.Delivery decision. ... No previous](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022021716/5cdfcccf88c993f4758cb6fe/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Diagnostic BN useMrs Windsor, 28 years old
(Low Risk Patient)
No PCOS No previous IUFD No macrosomic babyNo previous GDMNo FH of diabetesNormal weightWhiteNo AntipsychoticsNo Antenatal SteroidsNo Beta blockers
![Page 8: Gestational Diabetes case study - pambayesian.org · 2.Care pathway (community vs. hospital). 3.Initiation and titration of diabetes therapy. 4.Delivery decision. ... No previous](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022021716/5cdfcccf88c993f4758cb6fe/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Diagnostic BN useMs Dube, 25 years old
(moderate Risk Patient)
No PCOS No previous IUFD No macrosomic babyNo previous GDMDiabetic motherOverweightBlackNo AntipsychoticsNo Antenatal SteroidsNo Beta blockers
![Page 9: Gestational Diabetes case study - pambayesian.org · 2.Care pathway (community vs. hospital). 3.Initiation and titration of diabetes therapy. 4.Delivery decision. ... No previous](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022021716/5cdfcccf88c993f4758cb6fe/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Diagnostic BN useMrs Begum, 28 years old
(High Risk Patient)
No PCOS No previous IUFD No macrosomic babyPrevious GDMDiabetic motherOverweightSouth AsianNo AntipsychoticsNo Antenatal SteroidsNo Beta blockers
![Page 10: Gestational Diabetes case study - pambayesian.org · 2.Care pathway (community vs. hospital). 3.Initiation and titration of diabetes therapy. 4.Delivery decision. ... No previous](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022021716/5cdfcccf88c993f4758cb6fe/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Summary of Progress and Future work
● BN development in stages– Decision points– Initial diagnostic BN
nearing completion– ... applicable to later
stages● Initial work on ‘treatment’ BN
● Diagnostic BN– Training with data– Evaluate performance and
refine● Treatment BN
– Elicitation of additional structure
● Plans for self-management BN