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GLAMMRGLeon Ad hoc Mendota Modeling Researchers
Tim Kratz, Paul Hanson, David Hamilton, Matt Hipsey, Evelyn Gaiser, Trina McMahon, David Motta Marques, Stefan Bertilsson, Chin Wu, Todd Miller, Kevin Rose, Yvonne Hseih, Emily Kara,
Lucas Beversdorf, Luke Winslow, Cayelan Carey
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Timeline
• July 2009: Diverse group of modelers, physical limnologists, ecologists, and microbiologists descend on Trout Lake Station for one week
• 5 days later…. Mendota is modeled
• Fall 2009: calibrate, validate, and explore science questions
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DYRESM CAEDYMELCOM CAEDYM
• DYRESM (1D) or ELCOM (3D) with CAEDYM
• 2008 GLEON meteorological and water quality driver data
• NTL LTER chemical and biological data
• USGS
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Science Questions
• What are the primary controls on cyanobacterial bloom dynamics?
• Which features of model output can inform our understanding of microbial community dynamics?
• Emergent properties of the model?
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More Questions…
• Lake-wide responses to long-term climate change• How will trophic cascade respond to fluctuations
in climate?• Are lakes Ahrrenius?• Metabolic theory of ecology?• System level feedbacks might make the
ecosystem behave differently than we expect?• Toxin genes related to stoichiometry• Toxin genes related to toxin concentration
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DYRESM Simulations
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Model Output
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Simulated
Observed
Temperature
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Simulated
Observed
Dissolved Oxygen (mg/L)
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Observed
Simulated
Chlorophyll-a
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Simulated Phytoplankton Succession
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ELCOM Simulations
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A different way of doing science
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Future aims: setting up DYRESM
CAEDYM for other GLEON
lakes