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GLOBAL STRATEGIC INSIGHTNOCs – IOCs «CO-PETITION»(COLLOBERATION + COMPETITION)
TPAOTURKİYE PETROLLERİ A.O.
2nd NOC – IOC FORUM 2011Bringing Together Distinctive Competences for Common ChallengesPARIS, 07-08 APRIL 2011
Mehmet UYSALPresident and CEOTPAO
1/29NOC - IOC FORUM PARIS 2011
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MARKET VALUES OF THE COMPANIES
8th April 2011
0 % 40 % 80 % 120 % 160 % 200 %
0 %
40 %
80 %
20 %
60 %
100 %
120 %
-20 %
-40 %
INCREASE IN COMPANY VALUE (FOR 2009 ONLY)
INCR
EASE
IN C
OM
PAN
Y VA
LUE
(F
OR
2007
–20
09)
Petrochina
Statoil
CNOOC
Petrobras
Sinopec
ONGC GazpromNeft
Rosneft
Gazprom
Ecopetrol
PTT
NOC’s
ExxonMobil
ChevronTOTAL
BPHusky
ENIMarathon
SHELL Repsol YDP
ConocoPhillips
Surgut
Lukoil TNK-BP
BG
IOC’s
SOURCE: PFC Energy
GROWTH OF NOCs4 TIMES RELATIVE TO IOCs
(40% - 100%)
2/30NOC - IOC FORUM PARIS 2011
PPP (PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP)
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WORLD OIL PRODUCTION & REFINERY INVESTMENTS (2010-2020)
INCREASE OF NOCs SHARE
Source:WEO 2010
TOTAL CAPACITY8 MILLION B/D
SHARE OF NOC’S64 %
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SAFETY POLICIES IN EUROPEAN SEAS
European Commission Decision(Not approved yet):
“OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS ACTIVITIES AND THEIR REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT
IN EUROPE”
16 MARCH 2011
CAN THESE REGULATIONS COME INTO FORCE ?
FINANCIAL RESPONSIBILITIES WILL INCREASE
EUROPEAN COMPANIES WILL BE APPLYING THIS RULE ALL OVER THE
WORLD
SEAS THAT THE EU HAS GOT BORDERS WITH (BLACK SEA AND MEDITERRANEAN..)
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DOMINO EFFECT JUST IN MENA?
8th April 2011#1 RISK FOR NOC’S AND IOC’S IS POLITICAL INSTABILITY HEREAFTER
MISIR
LİBYA
SUMED (2.3 mmbd) – 1.1 mbpdSUEZ: 2 mbpd OIL - 18 mty
LNG
5/30
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TOP 10 RISKS OF UPSTREAM COMPANIES
8th April 2011
12
8
7
9
4
6
5
10
3
RISKS 2010 Rank
2009 Rank
2008 Rank
UNCERTAIN ENERGY POLICY 1 2 6ACCESS TO RESERVES 2 1 4COST CONTAINMENT 3 4 3WORSENING FISCAL TERMS 4 5 2CLIMATE, ENVIRON. CONCERNS 5 7 8
PRICE VOLATILITY 6 3 -
HUMAN CAPITAL DEFICIT 7 6 1
SUPPLY SHOCK 8 9 9
OVERLAPPING SERVICE OFFERINGS 9 8 0
NEW OPERATION. CHALLENGES 10 0 0
UP FROM 20009
DOWN FROM 2009
NEW ENTRY
“THE ERNST & YOUNG RISK REPORT 2010” “The Top 10 Risks For Oil And Gas”
6/30
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2011 RISK EXPECTATIONS (interviewed 194 top management)
8th April 2011
• RISING OPERATING COSTS
• INCREASING REGULATION
• COMPETITORS
• LIMITED NEW AREAS FOR EXPLORATION
• SHORTAGE OF SKILLED LABOUR
• INCREASING NEW AREAS OF EASY PRODUCTION
• LIMITED ACCESS TO CAPITAL/FINANCE
• ENVIROMENTAL CONCERNS
• ENSURING ADEQUATE SAFETY MEASURES FOR ENV. RISKS
• RISING TAXATION/DEMADS FROM STATES
• DISPUTES OVER SOVEREIGNTY, LEGAL STATUS OF OPERATIONS
• THE NEED FOR CLOSER COLLABORATION WITH PARTNERS
• ENSURING ADEQUATE SAFETY MEASURES FOR PERSONEL
36
28
30
25
20
25
13
16
10
12
8
16
6
%
WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING DO YOU BELIEVE REPRESENT THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR YOUR COMPANY IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? (select up to three) (% respodents)
“Economist Intelligence Unit” “The Outlook For the Oil And Gas Industry In 2011” 7/30
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SIX KEY CHALLENGES, AND HENCE OPPORTUNITIES TO SECURECOMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE, that are high on the agendas of many NOCexecutives. These include:
1. RISK MANAGEMENT, REPORTING, AND GOVERNANCE2. TALENT DEVELOPMENT AND RETENTION3. RELATIONSHIPS WITH INTERNATIONAL OIL COMPANIES (IOCS)4. FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT AND INTERNATIONAL TAX PLANNING5. SUPERVISION OF REMOTE OPERATIONS6. CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE ENVIRONMENT.
8/298th April 2011
KEY CHALLENGES and OPPORTUNITIES FOR NOC & IOC
NOC - IOC FORUM PARIS 2011
SOURCE: DELOITTE REPORT - 2008 A NEW ERA FOR NATIONAL OIL COMPANIESwww.deloitte.com/energy
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MUTUAL BENEFITS FOR COOPERATIONS AND PARTNERSHIPS
NOC IOC
NOC’S STRENGTHHold reserves
Secured by govermentFinanced by govermentPolitical relations with
goverments
IOC’S STRENGTHKnow-howTechnology
Finance
NOC’s BENEFITS:FOCUSED ON EFFECTIVENESS:
«DO THE RIGHT THINGS»
Secure National DemandSecure Exp. of New Resources
Access to marketsAccess to technologyManagement skills
IOC’s BENEFITS:FOCUSED ON EFFICIENCY:
«DO THE THINGS RIGHT»
Secure CommercialitySecure Sustainable Business Env.
Legal issuesAccess to New Opportunies
Risk Management
SERVICE CONTRACT PSA
8th April 2011 9/30
SHIFT FROM ‘MUTUAL BENEFIT’ to ‘MUTUAL UNDERSTANDING’
TRUSTCommercialization of
the Reserves(for domestic purposes
and for export)
A NEW BUSINESS MODEL
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DomesticInternational
Activities
ExplorationProduction
DrillingGas Storage
Pipeline
10/29NOC - IOC FORUM PARIS 2011
By Today:
The 47th vertical deepest onshore well (7200m/24000f)
Drilled 2 ultra deep water (>2100m/6900f) wells in Black Sea
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11/298th April 2011
TPAO INTERNATIONAL
COLUMBIA
LIBYA
IRAQ
AZERBAIJAN
KAZAKHSTAN
PRODUCTION PROJECTS
EXPLORATION PROJECTS
NOC - IOC FORUM PARIS 2011
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NOC’S• PETROBRAS -Deep Black Sea• SOCAR -Azerbaijan• STATOIL -Azerbaijan• KAZMUNAIGAZ -Kazakhstan• PETRONAS -Iraq• CNOOC -Iraq• GAZPROM NEFT -Iraq• KOGAS -Iraq• LIBYA NOC -Libya• ONGC -Libya
12/298th April 2011
TPAO AND PARTNERS
IOC’S• EXXONMOBIL -Deep Black Sea, Azer.• CHEVRON -Deep Black Sea, Azer.• BP -Azerbaijan• TOTAL -Azerbaijan• LUKOIL -Azerbaijan• ITOCHU -Azerbaijan• INPEX -Azerbaijan• HESS -Azerbaijan• KEC -Iraq• OMV -Shallow Black Sea• TIWAY -Shallow Black Sea• FOINAVON ENERGY - Shallow Black Sea• PERENCO -Turkey• TRANSATLANTIC -Turkey, Unconventional
TPAO IS ALWAYS OPEN TO PARTNERSHIPS WITH IOCs AND NOCs IN AND ABROAD
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13/298th April 2011
EXPLORATION IN MEDITERRENEAN - FARMOUT
2D Seismic (2007, 2008) : 11.700 km
2D Seismic (2010): 562km2
NOC - IOC FORUM PARIS 2011
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14/29NOC - IOC FORUM PARIS 2011
NATIONAL OIL COMPANY FORUM
7th NATIONAL OILCOMPANY FORUM
Turkey, 25-27 May 2012
The 7th NOC Forumhosted by TPAO will be held in
ISTANBUL – TURKEY at ÇIRAĞAN PALACE
25th – 27th May 2012
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15/29
TPAO
THANK YOU
NOC - IOC FORUM PARIS 2011