Globalizing patterns of natural resource use in relation to human development
Marina Fischer-Kowalski
Institute of Social Ecology, ViennaAlpen Adria University
Presentation to the UN Commission for Sustainable Development
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
4 messages I wish to get across
1. Across the globe, we use ever more resources with the help of ever more energy from fossil fuels, thus exhausting the resource base and destabilizing global geo-biospherical cycles.
2. Global resource use (materials and energy) is driven by population, income, development and constrained by population density.
3. Access to resources, and use of resources, is extremely unequal internationally. Without well designed policies, this will result in severe conflicts.
4. At the same time, improving human quality of life is becoming less resource dependent – we can achieve more with less.
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
Message 1: Centennial resource use explosion
Definition: sociometabolic scale is the size of the overall annual material orprimary energy input of a socio-economic system, measured according to established standards of MEFA analysis. For land use, no standard measure of scale is defined.
The sociometabolic scale of the world economy has been increasing by one order of magnitude during the last century:
• Materials use: From 7 billion tons to over 60 bio t (extraction of primary materials annually).
• Energy use: From 44 EJ primary energy to 480 EJ (TPES, commercial energy only).
• Land use: from 25 mio km2 cropland to 50 mio km2
resource use
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
sociometabolic scale: Global commercial energy supply 1900-2005
-
100
200
300
400
500
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
[EJ]
Hydro/Nuclear/Geoth.Natural GasOilCoalBiofuels
Source: Krausmann et al. 2009
resource use
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
0
20
40
60
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
[bill
ion
tons
]Construction minerals
Ores and industrial minerals
Fossil energy carriers
Biomass
Metabolic scale: Global materials use 1900 to 2005
Source: Krausmann et al. 2009
resource use
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
Message 2: Drivers of resource use: population, income, development and, as a constraint, population density
• Population numbers
• Rising income (GDP)
• “Development” in the sense of transition from an agrarian to the industrial regime.
• Human settlement patterns: higher population density allows lower resource use
drivers
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
Resource use per person = sociometabolic rates: Transitions between stable levels across 20th century
-
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
TPES
[GJ/
cap/
yr
-
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
DM
C [t
/cap
/yr]
TPES/cap (primary y-axis)
DMC/cap (secondary y-axis)
Energy
Materials
Source: Krausmann et al. 2009
drivers
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
sociometabolic rate (materials) and income: loglinear relation, no sign of a “Kuznets curve”
R2 = 0.64
N = 175 countriesYear 2000
Source: UNEP Decoupling Report 2010
drivers
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
Global metabolic rates grow slower than income („decoupling“)
Source: after Krausmann et al. 2009
-
3
6
9
12
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
0
1,5
3
4,5
6
DMC GDP (const. 2000 $)0
30
60
90
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
0
2
4
6
TPES GDP (const. 2000 $)
Global DMC, t/cap/yr (left axis)
Global TPES, GJ/cap/yr (left axis)
Global GDP, $/cap*yr (right axis)
Global GDP, $/cap*yr (right axis)
drivers
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
Message 3: Access to resources, and use of resources, is extremely unequal internationally. Without well
designed policies, this will result in severe conflicts.
Interwoven problems:• Unequal distribution of natural resources on earth• Corporate control over resources and the depletion of
countries‘ natural capital for little benefit („resource curse“)• Unequal consumption rates of natural resources• Externalization of environmental cost of resource extraction• Global scarcities accellerating (intergenerational problem)
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
sociometabolic rates by development status and population density
Metab.rates: DMC t/cap in yr 2000
-
5
10
15
20
25
High densityindustrial
Low densityindustrial
High densitydeveloping
Low densitydeveloping (NW)
Construction mineralsOres and industrial mineralsFossil fuelsBiomass
Share of world population 13% 6% 62% 6%
Source: UNEP Decoupling Report 2010
drivers
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010| Sources: USA: Gierlinger 2009, EU-15: Eurostat Database, Japan: Japan Ministry of the Enivronment 2007, Brazil: Mayer 2009, India: Lanz 2009, World: Krausmann et. al. 2009
USA
0
10
20
30
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
EU - 15
0
10
20
30
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Japan
0
10
20
30
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
World
0
10
20
30
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Brazil
0
10
20
30
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
India
0
10
20
30
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
material metabolic rates 1935 – 2005 not synchronized: very different depending on development status
USA EU15 JAPAN
WORLD BRAZIL INDIA
Construction min.Ind. min. & oresFossil fuelsbiomass
197319731973
transitions
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
Phases of resource use dynamics
-
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
TPES
[GJ/
cap/
yr
-
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
DM
C [t
/cap
/yr]
TPES/cap (primary y-axis)
DMC/cap (secondary y-axis)
Energy
Materials
Source: after Krausmann et al. 2009
1930
1973
2000
coal based oil based Latency BUBBLE
transitions
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
Three forced future scenarios of resource use
1. Freeze and catching up: industrial countries maintain their metabolic rates of the year 2000, developing countries catch up to same rates
incompatible with IPCC climate protection targets
2. Moderate contraction & convergence: industrial countries reduce their metabolic rates by factor 2, developing countries catch up
compatible with moderate IPCC climate protection targets
3. Tough contraction & convergence: global resource consumption of the year 2000 remains constant by 2050, industrial and developing countries settle for identical metabolic rates
compatible with strict IPCC climate protection targets
Built into all scenarios: population (by mean UN projection), development transitions, population density as a constraint, stable composition by material groups
Source: UNEP Decoupling Report 2010
transitions
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
Projections of resource use up to 2050 – three forced future scenarios
Source: UNEP Decoupling Report 2010
transitions
0
50
100
150
1900
1925
1950
1975
2000
2025
2050
met
abol
ic s
cale
[Gt]
Observed dataFreeze & catching upFactor 2 & catching upFreeze global DMC
0
6
12
18
1900
1925
1950
1975
2000
2025
2050
met
abol
ic ra
te [t
/cap
/yr]
Observed dataFreeze & catching upFactor 2 & catching upFreeze global DMC
Global metabolic scale (Gt) Global metabolic rate (t/cap)
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
Message 4:
a new transition, to a sustainable industrial metabolism, should be directed at human wellbeing!
And
YES, WE CAN!
human wellbeing
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
• Evtl. preston folie einfügen!
human wellbeing
Life expectancy at birth in relation to national income: In 1960, for same life expectancy only half the income is required than in 1930!
Source: Preston 1975 (2008)
Fischer-Kowalski | UN Sustainability | 5-2010|
Human development vs. Carbon emissions
Source: Steinberger & Roberts 2009
20001995
19901985
19801975
R2 = 0,75 – 0,85
Carbon emissions
HDI
2005
human wellbeing