Download - Halcon Apollo Case Study
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Halcn Resources Corporation
Comparable Analysis
Geography
Management Questions
Liquidity
Halcn represents a buy opportunity due to near-term value from positive operational results in the Bakken and
El Halcn generating stable growth and attractive returns, which will de-lever the balance sheet, as well as
longer-term value with the addition of drilling inventory in the prospective TMS.
Your well results are regularly out-performing your type curve assumptions. Would you say your type curve guidance is conservative? How do you think about revisions to these assumptions?
You have indicated that target leverage is between 3.0x 3.5x, however Halcn is currently at 5.1x. In light of this, could you tell us how you think about the time frame for reducing leverage, financing plan for growth spending, and if you see leverage as an impediment?
Halcn has a balanced portfolio of core assets from a stable, mature, major basin in the Bakken, to a young, highly prospective position in the TMS. Could you let us know how you think about allocating resources across this portfolio (or outside this portfolio), and where you see future growth coming from?
EBITDAX Firm Value
Share Shares EV FV 2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E
Company Price (mm) ($mm) ($mm) ($MM) ($MM) EBITDA (x) EBITDA (x)
Ha lc on Re sourc e s $6.22 420.477 $3,032 $6,271 $786 $943 8.0x 6.7x
Gulfport Ene rgy 63.21 85.427 5,434 5,224 466 757 11.2 6.9
Goodric h Pe trole um 27.79 44.281 1,586 2,085 156 267 13.4 7.8
SM Ene rgy 76.28 67.058 5,162 6,525 1,650 1,765 4.0 3.7
Peer Mean $757 $930 9.5x 6.1x
Peer Median 466 757 11.2 6.9
Ha lc on Ta rge t $ 8 .0 7 420.477 $3,392 $6,632 $786 $943 9.5x 6.1x
Comps selected for size and geographic comparability
Gulfport is most indicative of a mature Halcn (takeout target for larger player looking for turnkey investment)
Significant inventory of drillable locations, with 90% of capex invested in type curve areas producing IRRs of 50% or more
Premier acreage in mature basins which consistently outperforms type curve assumptions due to efficiencies in completion optimization and downspacing
~316,000 acres in the TMS represents potential upside if proven
Operating synergies with El Halcn due to the proximity and reservoir similarity
Short distance from El Halcn and the TMS to the Gulf Coast reduces transportation costs to a premium commodity hub
Halcn currently trades at a discount to NAV
While at present over levered, effectively no maturities until 2020
Recent Apollo JV shows capacity for flexible financing that does not further burden the balance sheet
Oil weighted asset portfolio and active hedging program limits effect of swings in commodity price on liquidity
Woodbine sale was a step in the right direction, but hard to let go of EBITDA
Biggest risk to HK is drop in commodity price
Lower price not only slows EBITDA growing into debt, but also leads to redetermination of borrowing base
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Strategic Actions
Divestment of Non-core Utica Acreage
Halcn / Apollo Joint Venture
Risk / Preferred Return
Play Delineation / Royalty Upside
8% Preferred Dividend
4% ORI in 75 TMS wells
$150mm of development capital
Halcn Rationale Apollo Rationale
Transfers the capital risk of delineating a new play away from the Company
The financing structure does not burden the balance sheet with additional debt, nor does it dilute current common shareholders
After initial exploration capital is spent on single well drilling, Halcon will have established windows in which to invest its own development capital
Potential to unlock a third core area with a significant number of drilling locations
Further divestment in 2014 highly unlikely as Halcn has already completed ~$500mm in divestments this year
135,000 140,000 acres targeting the Utica / Point Pleasant shales in North East Ohio and North West Pennsylvania
Currently six producing wells with production of 328 boe/d, and only 0.1 MMboe of proved reserves which makes the borrowing base impact insignificant
While Halcn considered the Utica a core assets not long ago, their initial well results there have been disappointing, while the Core focus has shifted much farther south
Northern Utica is nothing more than prospective, a position which the TMS already occupies Halcns portfolio with much greater potential based on initial well results
Assuming $5,000 per acre and given the large acreage position, there is significant value locked in the Utica which could be more efficiently invested
Other contemplated divestments: non-op Bakken production and Austin Chalk gas assets
Halcns acreage in
Trumbull &
Mahoning
Apollos assumption of risk is compensated by a guaranteed return with the preferred dividend of 8%
In addition, the 4% overriding royalty interest represents an attractive upside to participate in the TMS
Option to upsize investment to $400mm and 2% overriding royalty on 200 TMS wells, contingent upon satisfactory initial results