Download - Heleen de Coninck Technical Support Unit IPCC WG III (Mitigation) Trondheim, October 26th, 2004
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Carbon dioxide capture and storage in a climate change perspective
The current state of insights from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Heleen de ConinckTechnical Support Unit IPCC WG III (Mitigation)
Trondheim, October 26th, 2004OSPAR Workshop: The Environmental Impact of
Placement of Carbon Dioxide in Geological Structures in the Maritime Area
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
About IPCC
Established by WMO and UNEP 1988:• Assess scientific, technical and socio-economic
information on climate change, impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation
• Publication of reports• No research, no monitoring, no recommendations• Policy relevant but not policy prescriptive • Extensive review processes of its reports• Support to UNFCCC
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
About IPCC: organisation
W ork in g g rou p IS c ien ce
Tech n ica l S u p p ort U n itU K
W ork in g G rou p IIIm p ac t an d A d ap ta tionTech n ica l S u p p ort U n it
U S A
W ork in g G rou p IIIM it ig a tion
Tech n ica l S u p p ort U n itN e th erlan d s
Task F orce onN ation a l G H G in ven to ries
Tech n ica l S u p p ort U n itJap an
IP C C B u reau
IP C CIP C C C h a ir
W M O /U N E P
Co-ordination SR on CO2 capture and storage
Co-chairs WGIII: Ogunlade Davidson (Sierra Leone) &
Bert Metz (Netherlands)
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Why are IPCC publicationsso influential?
• World-wide effort to gather and combine all views and information on climate change
• Broad involvement of scientists • Extensive review process• Based on consensus - if no consensus reached, all
opinions to be reflected in report• Report: owned by authors• Summary for Policymakers (SPM): owned by
governments
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Convincing evidence…
Source: IPCC TAR, 2001
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
…that the climate is changing…temperature rise (°C)
Source: IPCC TAR, 2001
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
… and impacts seem inevitable
Source: IPCC TAR, 2001
I: Unique and threatened systemsII: Extreme climate eventsIII: DistributionIV: Aggregate impactsV: Large-scale discontinuities
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Impacts of CO2 emissions and climate change
• Temperature rise• Changing precipitation patterns; flooding; landslides• Sea level rise• Melting of glaciers• Ecological consequences• Consequence for farming, especially in developing
countries• Slow acidification of the oceans by take-up of
atmospheric CO2
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
What can be done?
• Stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations at levels of 450 ppmv (or 550, 650, 750?)
• Reduction of emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases
• Fossil fuel combustion main cause of CO2 emissions
• World energy supply likely to remain dominated by fossil fuels until at least 2050
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
What can be done?
Source: IPCC TAR, 2001
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
What can be done?
• Energy efficiency
• Decarbonisation– energy sources
– CO2 capture and storage
• Biological carbon sequestration
• Reducing other greenhouse gases from industry, agriculture, waste management
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
What does IPCC tell us on capture and storage of CO2?
IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001): a “new mitigation technology”
• “Serious mitigation option”
• Capacity not restraining (~ 5700 GtCO2)
• Costs are estimated competitive with other mitigation options at ca. 40 – 60 US$/tCO2
• Safety and verification noted as problems• Significant cost reductions for achieving stabilisation
scenarios
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
What does IPCC tell us on capture and storage of CO2?
Dooley, 2002
Energy and economic models seem to agree on a number of broad principles:– Relatively small niche market for CCS technologies
in the absence of a CO2 emissions mandate
– CCS technologies’ deployment accelerates as carbon permit prices rise
– Ultimate deployment of this class of technologies could be massive, depending on the stabilisation scenario assumptions
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
What does IPCC tell us on capture and storage of CO2?
Conclusions IPCC Workshop on carbon dioxide capture and storage (November 2002):
• Environmental impacts of geological storage likely small, but not well characterised
• Progress expected in the near future
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
What does IPCC tell us on capture and storage of CO2?
Conclusions IPCC Workshop on carbon dioxide capture and storage (November 2002):
• Literature basis growing rapidly• CCS important enough to deserve good
assessment• More attention needed for barriers and
uncertainties
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Contents IPCC SRCCS
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Legal framework in the SRCCS?
• Assessment requested by the IPCC Plenary
• Interpretation still uncertain: legal literature not unambiguous
• Giving one interpretation would be policy prescriptive
• Legal section will be highlighting the difficulties, not providing a solution
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Timing of the SRCCS
• January – March 2005: Government and Expert Review
• End of April: last Lead Author meeting• July: Final Draft finished• August: Government Review of the Summary for
Policymakers• End of September: IPCC Approval session• Presentation to UNFCCC at COP-11 (November
2005)
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
More information?
• IPCC Workshop in Regina: Proceedings
• IPCC in general: www.ipcc.ch
If you would like to be an Expert Reviewer:
Leave your card or contact me: [email protected]