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Human-induced changes in the hydrological cycle of the western United States and their impacts
Tim Barnett and DavidPierce
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
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The Problem
The hydrological cycle is changing over the western
United States
WHY?
Natural variability or man made?
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D&A summary
• Natural variability cannot explain obs.
• Solar/volcanic forcing cannot explain obs
• Changes in precipitation cannot explain obs
• ANTHROPOGENIC warming CAN explain obs. changes very well
Q: WHY? ANS: It is ‘US’!
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Conclusions
• The changes in western hydrology over 1950-99 are largely due to human-induced warming; PCM captures 60% of low frequency signal
• The PCM, run in forecast mode, shows a grim view of western U.S. water supplies within the next 30 years (ACPI). If PCM worked so well over the last 50 years, we have good reason to believe these predictions
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WesternUnited StatesWater Supply:
A glimpse of the future
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April 1st snowpack
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Columbia River basin
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Such Changes Would Clearly Affect Water Resources
Andrew Wood, Univ. of Washington
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Columbia Basin Options
Hydropower
Or
Salmon
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Klamath low flow salmon kill (circa 2002)
Endangered species vs. Dick Cheney (W.Post)
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Hanford Nuclear Site on Columbia River
Tritium Plume
How will climate change impact Columbia Contamination????
A Surprise???
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Sacramento/San Joaquin River basin
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Projected change in California snowfall...
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River flow earlier in the year
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The Delta Problem
San
Francisco
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Much of So. Cal water supply flows thro the Delta: Problem 1
Home of Endangered Species
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The dreaded Delta Smelt
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Crumbling levee system: Problem 2
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Salinity wedge location w/ climate change
20502000
Problem 3: Intrusion of salty water + subsidence contaminates SWP
SWP origin X
?
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Lake Hodges during a wet year
PROBLEM 4: Calif does not have enough water storage
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Calif. has storage capacity for only 21% of its annual precipitation
Shasta
spilling
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California: Mandated water releases cannot be met
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Western U.S. Water CrisisProbability of Los Angeles water shortage
Christensen et al., Climatic Change, 2004
Climate Change alone
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Colorado River basin
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Colorado River drainage
Water supply for:
• 27 million people• 3.5 million acres of farmland
Users in:
• 7 states• 2 countries
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The Three Keys to the Colorado System’s future
• Mother Nature
• Our stewart-ship of existing resources
• Human-induced climate change
from “When will Lake Mead go dry?”
Water Resources Research, 2008
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Colorado River flow from tree rings
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= 10.0 maf/year OUTFLOW= 10.0 maf/year OUTFLOW
- 4.4 maf California- 4.4 maf California- 0.3 maf Nevada- 0.3 maf Nevada
- 1.0 maf losses - 1.0 maf losses
- 2.8 maf Arizona - 2.8 maf Arizona - 1.5 maf Mexico - 1.5 maf Mexico
Lake Powell
OUTFLOW > INFLOWOUTFLOW > INFLOWLo
wer
Bas
in LakeMead
Upp
er B
asin
= 9.0 maf/year INFLOW= 9.0 maf/year INFLOW
+ 0.02 maf Paria River+ 0.02 maf Paria River
+ 0.75 maf tributary inflow+ 0.75 maf tributary inflow
+ 8.23 maf from Lake Powell+ 8.23 maf from Lake Powell
normal year operations releases from Lake Powell = 8.25 million acre-feet(maf) /year
7.5 maf for Lower Basin0.75 maf for Mexico
normal year operations releases from Lake Powell = 8.25 million acre-feet(maf) /year
7.5 maf for Lower Basin0.75 maf for Mexico
Colorado River Compact measuring point at Lee Ferry X
From Kuhn,2008
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Lake Mead, Oct 2007
From K. Dewey, HPRCC
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Colorado River: Current Status
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Runoff Reduction by 2050 (%)
• Milly et al. 2005: From pool of 24 IPCC AR4 models, picked the 12 with the best simulation of current hydrology
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Effects of climate change on Lake Mead
2048-2065Deliveries cut 25% (3.75 maf); Reservoirs drop to dead pool
2017-2023Reservoirs drop to power pool
2034-2040Deliveries cut 10% (1.5 maf);Reservoirs drop to dead pool
2021-2028Reservoirs drop to dead pool (BAU)
50% chance of running dry
Scenario
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Hydropower Reductions in a warmer world (from ACPI)
REGION 2010-39 2040-69 2070-98
Columbia 9% 14% 14%
CA Central 10% 6% 12%
Valley
Colorado* 56% 45% 53%
* Lakes Mead and Powell drop below min pool elevation
Source: Climatic Change, Vol 62, 2004
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Key Messages
• Water is the West’s fragile resource
• Climate change will alter who gets how much
• Water shortages will likely drive migrations and population shifts
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Key Messages
• The Pacific Northwest will be on the receiving end … exacerbating your land use and transportation challenges
• The Pacific Northwest itself faces water issues relative to irrigation, power generation, and salmon
• Time scale: 10-20 years
• We have options! (if we act now)
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Do we have time to change directions??
We are headed for a water ‘crisis’ in the Western U.S.(and it has already started)
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So we have a pretty good idea what the future holds
What do we do about it?
We have lots of options!
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NOTE: Full climate change impacts not realized in 2030
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San Diego / Southern California / US West
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P affecting SWE/P?
Dividing by P removes majority
of correlation between SWE
and P
Trend in P (blue) vs. SWE (red),
1950-1999
60% of stations show increasing
P, but 71% show decreasing SWE
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Effect of river flow reduction
Probability of exhausting Powell/Mead storage given net flow into system and various levels of climate change
Net inflow = river flow – (consumption + evaporation)
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Colorado River: Not enough water to meet current demands
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Conclusions
• Much previous work noting changes in snow cover, temperature, and river flow over the western U.S., but no formal D&A, nor multivatiate
• We have performed a formal multivariate detection and attribution analysis of SWE/P, JFM temperatures, and river flow
• The changes in western hydrology over 1950-99 are largely human-induced; PCM captures 74% of low frequency signal
• The PCM, run in forecast mode, shows a grim view of western U.S. water supplies within the next 30 years. If it worked so well over the last 50 years, we have good reason to believe these predictions
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The hydrological cycle is changing
• Examples of such changes are well documented:
– Changes in snowfall & snow pack • e.g., Mote 2003; Mote et al. 2005; Knowles et al. 2006
– Changes in streamflow • e.g., Cayan et al. 2001; Stewart et al. 2005; Maurer et al.
2007
– Warmer air temperatures• e.g., Dettinger et al. 1995; Easterling 2002
Can we say with confidence that these changes are due to human effects?
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Questions
1. Are the changes due to warming or different amount of precipitation?
2. What do other models say?
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WHY? Detection and Attribution (D&A)
• Detection: are the changes inconsistent with natural variability?
• Attribution: are the changes consistent with anthropogenic (or other) forcing?
• Generate a “fingerprint” that encapsulates changes expected (from model runs)
• Match fingerprint in obs and forced models
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Novel aspects
• Multivariate Detection and Attribution (D&A)
Analyze snowpack, river flow and air temperature simultaneously
• Regional– Have to address problems of large amplitude
natural variability
• Related to the hydrological cycle– Rare in formal D&A work
– People can immediately relate to it
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The Future
We are headed for a water
‘crisis’ in the Western U.S.
(and it has already started)
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The hydrological cycle is changing over the western United States
• Examples of such changes are well documented:– Changes in snowfall & snow pack
• e.g., Mote 2003; Mote et al. 2005; Knowles et al. 2006
– Changes in streamflow
• e.g., Cayan et al. 2001; Stewart et al. 2005; Maurer et al. 2007
– Warmer air temperatures
• e.g., Dettinger et al. 1995; Easterling 2002
WHY?
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Time to detection
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The Sacramento Delta
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Can we sustain Lake Mead?Consumption cuts vs. Human-induced Runoff reduction
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It works
El Nino rainfall simulationObservations Downscaled model Standard reanalysis
Ruby Leung, PNNL
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Colorado Reservoirs: Then vs. Now
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Minimum power pool elevation breached
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Typical western climate changes
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Detection & Attribution: Overall scheme
1. Start with global GCMs: control and anthropogenically forced runs
2. Downscale to region of interest (Wood, et al, 2004;Hidalgo, et al, 2007)
3. Run VIC hydrological model w/ downscaled data
4. D&A on 3 variables:– SWE/P (1 April Snow Water Equv. / Oct-Mar precip)
– Temperature (examined JFM daily minimum temperature)
– River flow (examined JFM fraction and CT, center of timing)
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Models and data ….20 Tb• Control model GCM runs
– 850 yrs CCSM3-FV (1.25Ox1O; finer resolution than T85)– 750 yrs PCM (T42)
• Anthropogenically forced GCM runs, 1900-1999– PCM (4 members)– MIROC (10 members)
• Regional statistical downscaling of GCM forcing– 2 methods, 12 km resolution
• VIC hydrological model (1/8 deg resolution)
• Observations, 1950-1999– Snow courses for SWE– UW, Maurer, PRISM for T and P– Naturalized flow from Colorado R. (Lee’s Ferry), Columbia R.
(Dalles), Sacramento and San Joaquin river
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Multivariate fingerprint: PCM vs. MIROC
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Ensemble signal strength & significance
Fingerprint
Signal Strength
Significance
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SWE/P TREND COMPONENT
Model basedObs snow course
These time series are the basis for the fingerprint
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Los Angeles Water Budget (20 Mega-people)
• Total annual use= 4.1 MAFY
• Sources
*SWP .65-1.4 MAFY (highly variable)
*Colorado .55 MAFY (fixed,climate)
Local (GW) 1.56 MAFY (overdrafted 0.81 MAFY)
Surface water .1 MAFY (variable)
Other ~.5 MAFY
TOTAL 3.4-4.1 MAFY
* Imported total approx 50% of annual use
* Approx. 90% for San Diego
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Time series of key variables (obs.)
All variables have been normalized (fractionalized) by dividing by the CCSM3-FV control run mean over first 300 yrs.
Necessary for the multivariate detection and attribution (D&A), so have same variance in each variable (the “units problem”).
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MEAD TOMORROW: Human-induced runoff reduction
p=0.5 Mead goes Dry in 2023
Assumes 1 MAF/yr overdraft continues
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The Problem Today
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Sacramento Delta Salinity: Now & 2060
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Time dependent D&A
S/N
Barnett, et al, SCIENCE,2008
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From Snow, DWR, 2007
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Can salmon survive in the PNW?
Warm Fall Water Earlier Freshet
Spawning, Incubation, Rearing, Smolt Migration
Historical Climate
Altered Climate
Climate Change will Seriously Compress the TimeAvailable for Fall Chinook to Complete their
Spawning Cycle
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EXAMPLE: 20 million people in SoCal region
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Over 50% of supply is imported!
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Ground water being over drafted
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SoCal Water ‘HITS”
** ‘unused’ Colorado (DOI, 2003) -500,000AF
**Delta smelt (Fed court, 2008) -500,000 AF
• Ground water overdraft (fact) -810,000 AF
• CA water system harmful to endangered salmon (Fed court, 2008) ???
• Delta levy break (not IF, but WHEN) ???
Compare with MWD sales of 2,300,000 AF
** together give 70% prob. of NOT meeting demand
(MWD, 2007)
SOLUTION: Conservation/recycling (2 MAFY?)
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MEAD TOMORROW: Human-induced runoff reduction impacts
50% chance Mead goes Dry by 2028
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“At Hoover Dam, generation capacity has been reduced 20 percent since 1999. If lake levels continue to decline, the ‘minimum power pool,’ the level at which water can no longer flow to the turbines, could be reached.”
"...Given the current demands on the system, if no particular elevations are protected and the current drought continues, the lakes could be nearing their dead pools as early as 2008."
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Can we sustain Lake Mead?Consumption cuts vs. Human-induced Runoff reduction
10%=1.5maf/yr USBRmax=0.5maf/yr
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Chance to deplete to power pool level
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How good are estimates of Natural Variability?
Spectra reconstructed Colorado River flow last 1000+ years
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Human-Induced Runoff Reduction by 2050 (%)
After Milly et al 2005
-10 to -30%
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Historic and scheduled water deliveries
Scheduled deliveries are from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, 2007
CO, WY,UT, NM
Supplies Las Vegas,Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange Co.
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%