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Hurricanes and Climate Change:What do the Observations Show?
25 April 2012
Chris Landsea, National Hurricane Center, Miami, USA
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How is global warming affecting:Tropical cyclone frequency, intensity, genesis, track, and
overall activity?
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A Typical Day in 2012 – Marine Data Available
around 12 UTC
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A Typical Day in 2008 –Marine Data Available
around 12 UTC
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A Typical Day in 1912 – Marine Data Available
around 12 UTC
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A Typical Day in 1911 – Marine Data Available
around 12 UTC
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Tropical Storm and Hurricane Numbers – A Very Large Trend over a Century
7
12
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2007 Hurricane Season - 15 Tropical Storms & Hurricanes……9 of which were very short-lived (< 36 hr)
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New Tools and Technologies ~ Additional TCs lately?
AMSU TroposphericTemperatures
Hart’s Cyclone PhaseSpace Analyses
Quikscat Surface Vectors
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Big Upward Trend – Consistent with Technological Improvements
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Tropical Storm and Hurricane Numbers – A Very Large Trend over a Century
7
12
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Tropical Storm and Hurricane Numbers - Trend Nearly Gone after Removal of Very Short-Lived Cyclones
78
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Atlantic ship traffic changes
Vecchi and Knutson (2008)
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Estimated Number of “Missed” Tropical Storms and Hurricanes of Medium to Long Duration
2-3 per year in 1880s
1-2 per year in 1900s
<1 per year in 1950s
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Tropical Storm and Hurricane Numbers – A Very Large Trend over a Century
7
12
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Tropical Storm and Hurricane Numbers - Trend Nearly Gone after Removal of Very Short-Lived Cyclones
78
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Tropical Storm and Hurricane Numbers –Upward Trend Gone After Adding in “Missed” and Removing Very Short-Lived Cyclones
98
Landsea et al. (2010, Journal of Climate)