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Ira A.
FULTONSchools of Engineering
Global Challenges in Industrial Engineering andOperations Management for the 21st Century
Ronald G. Askin, Professor and DirectorSchool of Computing, Informatics, and Decision Systems Engineering
Arizona State UniversityTempe, AZ 85287-8809 USA
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Overview
On-going global manufacturing and economic activity trends
Where US manufacturing research and activity are headed
What are the implications/opportunities for IEs globally?
Where is IEs future
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Arizona and ASU
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Lake_Powell_Above_Wahweap_Marina.jpghttp://engineering.asu.edu/sites/default/files/gallery/IMG_0946.jpg -
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Shaping the World
Politicsand
Cultures
Environmentand Nature
Economicsand
Ingenuity
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Manufacturing Trends and Status Today
Global Production/Supply Networks
Transit costs and speeds changing slowly
Raw material availability, labor costs, markets vary globally
Information access is level; education becoming level
Transition from Mechanical/Physical to Electrical/Info Dominance Green for Sustainability (Financial and Environmental)
Health applications are growing markets
Nanomaterials are solutions on the horizon
Manufacturing Creates Wealth!
Services fleetingly facilitate life but limit wage growth due to
standardization, scalability and automation difficulty.
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Globalization!
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www.worldatlas.com
Fab
Intel Wafer Fab and Test/Assembly Facilities
Assembly/Test
Region RevenueAsia/Pacific 51%Americas 20%Europe 19%Japan 10%
Its Markets, Resources and Economics
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WTO: Peace and Prosperity Through Cooperative Commerce
153 Member Countries, 30 Accessions (in process) in 2009
WTO: A system of trading rules and forum for intergovernmental negotiation
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Why is US IE Changing So Much So Fast?
Thomas L. Friedman, Hot, Flat and Crowded
-Level playing field through logistics and global connections (web)
-American expectations for good wages, clean jobs/environment
- High competition outsourcing, off-shoring Opportunity of new science bio, info, nano
Growth of service expenditures (health care, finance)
Dragged along by our engineering counterparts
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But are We Changing?
Of Top 20 Ranked Schools
Industrial and Systems Engineering Industrial and Operations Engineering
Industrial Engineering and Operations Research Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering
Management Science and Engineering Industrial Engineering and Management Science
Operations Research and Information Engineering Industrial and Systems Engineering
Industrial and Systems Engineering Industrial and Systems Engineering
Industrial and Systems Engineering Industrial and Systems Engineering
Industrial and Systems Engineering Industrial and Systems Engineering
Industrial Engineering and Operations Research Industrial and Systems Engineering
Industrial and Enterprise Systems Engineering Industrial Engineering
Operations Research/Industrial Engineering Industrial, Systems and Operations Engineering
IIE Members vote Down Name Change in 2009
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Industrial Engineering in the USPast and Present
New Markets Outside of Manufacturing
1910 2010
Weve grown out but have we grown up?
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The Scientist/Engineer Today
The Doctor The Civil Engineer
CAT Scan PET Scan
Realtime tracking(Cameras, GPS)
Embedded structuralhealth monitoring/control
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Revolutionary Change in Technology
Moores Law Human
Genome Decoding
n 1990: $3B, 13 yrsn 2009: $350k, 13 weeks
n 2015: $300, 13 min.
Gordon Moore's original graph from 1965
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The IE Today
http://www.strategosinc.com/value_stream_mapping1.htm
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Methods have stagnated.Remaining traditional Manufacturing opportunities in US are limited.
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IEs Improve Integrated Systems
How must faster/better/cheaper can we define, model, andimprove a system today than in 1979?
Have we changed at the same rate as others
over the past 30 years?
While the world became a ubiquitous information,global society, IE found better icons for flowcharts!
Todays systems are complex and integrated. Why arent
we flourishing most in complex environments?
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Where Could/Should We Be?
Virtual Reality Models of Systems miniature Ron sits on thepart and flows through the machine and plant
Virtual Reality Models of datasets with automated coloring,sizing for outliers
Automated Simulation/Optimization Models from CapitalAsset files
Automated model decomposers, data cleaners andpreprocessors
Full data history on shop and order status with real-timeplanning updates customers manage their orders.
Were too Cheap!
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The Prevailing Business Attitude
Phil Knight, Founder of Nike
There is no value in making things any more. The
value is added by careful research, by innovation, andby marketing.
Deputy Director, DARPA 7/19/2010
To innovate we must make.
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World Gross Domestic Product
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
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35000
40000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008CONS
TANT1990USB
ILLIONS
YEAR
GDP by Region
Africa
Asia
Central America
Europe
North America
South America
World
Data Source: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/dnlList.asp
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GDPAsia
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GDP per Capita-Global Wealth Distribution
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008
1990USDPerCapita
YEAR
GDP / Population
Africa
AsiaCentral/LatinAmericaEurope
North America
World
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GDP/CapitaAsia and US
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GDP Growth Rate: Current GDP/1970 GDP
0
1
2
3
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GROWTHRATE
YEAR
GDP Growth Rate by Region
Africa
Asia
CentralAmericaEurope
NorthAmericaSouthAmerica
World
Asia Rising,Europe Falling
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3
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7
8
GROWTHRA
TE
YEAR
Manufacturing Growth Rate byRegion
Africa
Asia
CentralAmerica
Europe
NorthAmerica
SouthAmerica
World
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Export Dependence by Region
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008
PERCENTAG
E
YEAR
Total Exports/GDP by Region
Africa
Asia
CentralAmerica
Europe
North America
SouthAmerica
World
Asia growing rapidly
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Export Importance by Country
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Trends in Interdependency
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008
PERCENTAG
E
YEAR
Total Imports/GDP by Region
Africa
Asia
Central America
Europe
North America
South America
World
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Import Percentages by Country
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Import Export Growth Rates
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5
10
15
20
25
197019751980198519901995200020052008G
ROWTHRATE
YEAR
Export Growth Rate by Region
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Asia
CentralAmerica
Europe
NorthAmerica
SouthAmerica
World 0
2
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YEAR
Import Growth Rate by Region
Africa
Asia
CentralAmericaEurope
NorthAmericaSouth
AmericaWorld
Central America Gaining Net SurplusAsia Expanding Activity Rapidly
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Observations
US has room to consume more of the worlds goods
US spends most on services, not products
Central America and Europe highly dependent on trade
US, Japan and South America too insular?
Japan continuing to wane
Growth linked to global trade, particularly for small economies
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Whats the Role and Impact
of Manufacturing?
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Global Manufacturing Growth
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1000
2000
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008CONSTANT1990USBILLIONS
YEAR
Manufacturing by Region
Africa
Asia
Central America
Europe
North America
South America
World
Europe, No. Americalosing ground;Asia gaining
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Manufacturing Activity by Country
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Manufacturing Importance by Region
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008
Manufacturing/GDP by Region
AfricaAsia
Central America
Europe
North America
South America
World
No./So. America ,Europe losing ground
World relatively constant
AsiaGaining
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Manufacturing Production per Capita
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008
1990USDPerCap
ita
YEAR
Manufacturing / Population
Africa
Asia
Central America/LatinAmerica
Europe
North America
World
Surprising relative growthconsistency except Africa
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Manufacturing per Capita by Country
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Population Growth Rates
0
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
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5,000,000,000
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7,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008
POULATION
YEAR
Population Data by Year
Africa
Asia
Europe
North America
Latin America /Central America
World
Despite problems, Africais growing fastest
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Population Growth RatesFocus on Asia
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The Rapidly Changing Landscape
Companies brace for end of cheap made-in-China eraBy ELAINE KURTENBACH, AP Business Writer Elaine Kurtenbach, Ap Business Writer Thu Jul 8, 12:57 pm ET
SHANGHAI Factory workers demanding better wages and working conditions arehastening the eventual end of an era of cheap costs that helped make southern
coastal China the world's factory floor. A series of strikes over the past two monthshave been a rude wakeup call for the many foreign companies that depend onChina's low costs to compete overseas, from makers of Christmas trees tomanufacturers of gadgets like the iPad. Where once low-tech factories and scantwages were welcomed in a China eager to escape isolation and poverty, workers arenow demanding a bigger share of the profits. The government, meanwhile, is pushingforeign companies to make investments in areas it believes will create greater wealth
for China, like high technology. shifting production to the inland areas Massiveinvestments in roads, railways and other infrastructure are reducing the isolation ofthe inland cities.
Maybe, but the growing market is still there!
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US Industry ActivityPercent of GDP*
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
1947
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Retail trade
Logistics
Information
Finance, insurance
Health care
* US Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Where will these lines go from here?
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US Manufacturing Future
Focus on design (shorter product life cycles, more customized
demands as choices proliferate)
Focus on green manufacturing (sustainability)
Focus on low volume, high precision, high tech products
Focus on developing and using nanomaterial processes
atomic scale layered composites
Focus on renewable energy power sources
Focus on defense industry
High volume only when automated (low volume and product
flexibility relative to labor at least for awhile longer)
World wide Opportunities
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World wide OpportunitiesSuccessful Approaches (Business 101)
Identify competitive advantage (low cost of labor, primary materials)
Identify market needs and means
Ensure adequate infrastructure
Find investorsgovt, banks, parent companies
Focus on a core
automotive parts assembly in Mexico first,
then build up to aerospace parts
Low Cost Assembly originally in Asia (Is Africa the future?)
Global Production Global Wealth Logistics Dominance
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Where Do Manufacturers Build?
Close to Raw Material and Parts Suppliers
Close to Customers
Adequate Labor Supply and Low Labor Rate
Adequate Transportation Network (Air, Rail, Shipping, Roads)
Favorable Community/Tax Situation
Access to Utilities (power, water)
Possible risk mitigation driven facility distribution
Limited cultural/political hurdles
US National Academy of Engineering
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US National Academy of EngineeringGrand Challenges
n Web page: http://www.engineeringchallenges.org/n View video (6 min)
Make solar energy economical less than 1% today but large potential
Provide energy from fusion develop scalable, envir. benign method
Provide access to clean water affordable and available for all
Reverse engineer the brain combining engineering and neuroscience
Advance personalized learningspeeds, styles, content for individual
Develop carbon sequestration methods capture and store excess CO2
Restore and improve urban infrastructurebetter design and materialsfor transportation, water, waste, power, etc. for livable cities
14 Grand Challenges for the 21st Century
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NAE Grand Challenges cont.
Engineer the tools of scientific discovery blending of engr. & science toexplain nature
Advance health informatics better everyday care and preventing bioattacks/pandemics
Prevent nuclear terror protect society from increasing risks and proliferation
Engineer better medicines body sensing, personalized drugs, deliverymethods
Enhance virtual reality for training, treatment, communication, andentertainment
Manage the nitrogen cycle better fertilization techniques and
recapture/recycle
Secure cyberspace protect essential infrastructure
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IIE Fellows: Grand Challenges for Industrial Engineering
Reengineering Health Care Delivery
Creating a Technology Oriented Culture
Engineering a Sustainable Society
Developing Better Decision Tools
Mitigating and Responding to Disasters
Point of Use Manufacturing
Infrastructure Food Security
Fellows Report:
http://www.iienet2.org/uploadedfiles/IIE/News/Grand%20Challenge%201.pdf
1 Reengineering Healthcare Delivery:
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1. Reengineering Healthcare Delivery:An Integrated Approach
Demographics: Young and poor are fastest growingsegment, U.S. and worldwide
Number of senior citizens growing fast (and babyboomers wont go gently into the night)
Healthcare is largest U.S. industry
Health care inflation rate 3 times overall rate
Woeful under investment in info technology
Excessive waste Medical info and treatment increasingly technology-
enabled
The Problem
C
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1. Reengineering Health Care
Individualcare needed risk analysis, modeling/mininggenomic info, personalized treatment scripts, safety/quality inindividual led treatment
Systemimprovements needed QC, logistics, info technology,provider collaboration hierarchically and vertically, financialsystem and models
Scienceadvances needed treatment protocols, datamining/bioimaging, human sensing
The IE Role
2 C i T h l O i d S i
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2. Creating a Technology Oriented Society
Body of tech knowledge growing rapidly
System size and complexity growing rapidly (U.S.) relatively wealthy life is easy
Many of brightest youth pursue pursue law, business
U.S. youths perform poorly in math/science
The Problem
2 C i T h l O i d S i
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2. Creating a Technology Oriented Society
Get the word out about opportunities and need
Optimize available human resource
Jazz up what we do
The IE Role
3 E i i S t i bl S i t
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3. Engineering a Sustainable Society
U.S. population will double this century
World population will more than double
Over 50% now live in urban areas
Wealth increases ecological footprint
Climate change will change geographic resource availability
The Problem
3 S t i bl S i t
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3. Sustainable Society
Need sustainable transportation systems
Efficient/effective governmental services judicial,social security, police/fire
Designing scalable urban environments Designing efficient community structures connecting
urban (production, consumption) to rural (raw materials)
The IE Role
4 D l B tt D i i M ki T l
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4. Develop Better Decision Making Tools
The Problem
Modeled entities are growing in size
Models are expensive to build, hard to sell
Models are limited in scope, life-span
Organizations have vertical and horizontalboundaries (multiple constituencies)
4 Better Decision Making Tools
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4. Better Decision Making Tools
Better, more fully deployed, and relevant sensors
Models to fuse, validate and evaluate data/information
Improved models of human behavior
Enrich Rational models with subjective behavior
Risk analysis and interaction models of tightly coupled massivetechnology-oriented systems and their failure modes/scenarios
Rapid modeling and computational tools
Scalable, maintainable, rapidly developable models More understandable models/More valid models
Human embedded modeling paradigms and tools (immersionand visualization)
The IE Role
5 Mitigating and Responding to Disaster
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5. Mitigating and Responding to Disaster
Natural and man-made disasters are happening morefrequently
Societal expectation is for safer lives, quicker emergencycare
Larger urban regions, tightly-coupled specialized lives, andclimate change lead to more susceptible systems and larger
scale impacts
The Problem
5 Mitigating Disaster
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5. Mitigating Disaster
Optimal deployment of detection technologies (natural andcompetitive games)
Optimization of emergency response resource positioningand deployment
Managing transition from search to rescue to recovery andcare
Integrated communications, logistics, and decision making
Real-time decision making with various info levels
(resilient planning and control) Resilient system(s) design
Optimal deployment and use of sensing technology andrisk assessment models
The IE Role
6 Point of Use Manufacturing
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6. Point of Use Manufacturing
Demand for Customized Products
Demand for Sustainable Manufacturing/Distribution
The Problem
6 Point of Use Manufacturing
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6. Point of Use Manufacturing
Distributed (home) or neighborhood manufacturing
New process development for solid free form fabrication
Development of nano and mega technology for point ofuse production
Design of infrastructure for material delivery, user-drivendesign
Its Not Easy Being Green
The IE Role
7 Infrastructure Construction
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7. Infrastructure Construction
Time to revolutionize infrastructure construction(progress has lagged)
Construction inefficient and quality variable
The Problem
7 Infrastructure Construction
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7. Infrastructure Construction
Take advantage of advances in computing, robotics,materials, and management science to reduce cost, time,injuries, environmental impact
Design smarter structures
Determine optimal investments for infrastructure $
Allow maintainable, culturally appropriate, ergonomically safeconstruction methods and system designs
Why Cant we manufacture structures in factories for field
assembly with higher quality and productivity?
The IE Role
8 Safe Available Affordable Food & Water
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8. Safe, Available, Affordable Food & Water
Population growth, changing weather patterns, political strife,man-made biohazards, natural biohazards threaten worldwide
Current cultivation practices not sustainable and use non-
renewable resources Profits vs. Politics vs. Social Good
Standard procedures, testing and traceability needed across foodsupply chain
Procedures for local food production and security needed
The Problem
8 Safe Available Food and Water
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8. Safe, Available Food and Water
Develop traceable supply and distribution networks (RFID,imaging, procedures, etc.)
Design and deploy maintainable solutions
Perhaps assist in governmental planning for development
The IE Role
What Constitutes IE?
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What Constitutes IE?
Manufacturing planning (processplanning, tooling design/maintenance)
Production operations (planning,scheduling, quality assurance, materialhandling)
Engineering management (engineeringeconomics, product services, facilitiesdesign/mgmt., distribution/logistics)
System modeling (informationsystems/flow, modeling and simulation)
Ergonomics/Human Factors
IE TodayIE Tomorrow
Additions?
Deletions?
Industrial Engineer 21st Century
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School of Computing, Informatics,and Decision Systems Engineering
Kuala Lumpur,January 2011
Industrial Engineer 21st Century
We are theInformation
Preparer
We are the DataHunter/Gatherer
Conclusions
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School of Computing, Informatics,and Decision Systems Engineering
Kuala Lumpur,January 2011
Conclusions
We are needed but we must Wander or Wither
We must Revolutionize on a Bigger, Broader, FasterScale
We must integrate our strengths humans, math
models, computing, big picture/multiobjective comfortlevel, efficiency mindset
The Big Picture
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School of Computing, Informatics,and Decision Systems Engineering
Kuala Lumpur,January 2011
The Big Picture
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School of Computing, Informatics,and Decision Systems Engineering
Kuala Lumpur,January 2011
Questions/Comments/Complaints?
Ron Askin
School of Computing, Informatics, and
Decision Systems Engineering
Futurizing the BSIE Curriculum
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Futurizing the BSIE Curriculum
Greater emphasis on global cultures Learning to serve on multidisciplinary, multicultural, politically
pressured teams Must bring unique value to the team (Systems thinking, Project
Management, Multiobjective Dec. Making, Dealing with Complexity &Uncertainty)
Dynamic, Nonlinear, Continuous Large-Scale Modeling (Not justDiscrete Event Simulation and Desk Top LP)
Understanding Human Behavior and Preferences (Beyond HF) Risk Management and Mitigation as an integral activity Broader Science Knowledge (Biology, Ecology) Sophisticated Information Technology Users (Sensor Capability &
Network Design; Data Information Decision Systems) Systems Modeling of Urban Environments, Infrastructure Broader Mindset of Major Societal Impact and Socio-Technical
Problem Solving (not just making widgets)
Whats Your Ten?