Download - Immigrants: Resource for MN's Economy
Immigrants: Resource for MN’s Economy
September 2013
Immigrant Contributions to MN’s Economy
• Workers• Entrepreneurs• Consumers• Connect us to world economy
• Contributions change over time!
Workers
• Immigrant workers = majority of labor force growth
• 7% of population – 9% of workforce– 375,000 to 390,000 people– 230,000 workers– 55,000 – 85,000 “unauthorized”
• MN growth depends on imported labor
Labor Force Growth Will Slow Sharply
Migration Will Be Increasingly Important Re Growing the Labor Force
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
2000-10 2010-20 2020-30
Total Natural Part Rate Migration
Net Labor Force Growth
State Demographer projection revised 2007
MN Labor Force % Born in Another Country
3.3%
8.5%
12.6%
3.1%3.6%
4.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
1990 2000 2006
25-34
55-64
PUMS microdata from 1990 & 2000 Census & 2006 ACS
Immigration to Minnesota Since 1860
375,000 – 390,000 total (about 7% of the population)
Job Type# of Companies
Seeking Workers% Reporting Unfilled Jobs
Construction, Trades Workers 89 14%Production and Assembly 101 14%Architects,Engineers, Cartographers 64 9%Sales Agents, Real Estate Agents 77 9%Executives, Managers 33 7%IT and Web, Actuaries, Statisticians 41 7%Office Support and Assistants 61 6%Installation, Maintenance, Automotive 36 5%Transportation and Moving Personnel 27 5%HR, Accountants, Finance, Insurance 24 4%Food Preparers, Chefs, Servers 28 4%
Key Workers – Still in Short Supply(2012-13 Grow MN! Results, N = 697)
What Industries Fueled by Immigrant Workers?
Industry % Foreign-Born
% Native- Born
Manufacturing 20% 13%
Retail Trade 8% 12%
Pro’s, Scientific, Management, Admin
14% 9%
Education, Health, Social Services
23% 24%
Arts, Entertainment, RecreationAccommodation and Food Services
11% 8%
TOTAL, TOP 5 76% 66%
(Top 5)Source: Migration Policy Institute 2009
Minnesota’s Immigrant Population Is Highly Educated
For every “low-skill” immigrant without a high school diploma, MN has 1.25 immigrants with “high skills” – a college degree or more.
Skill Level
% of Total MN Immigrant
Population, 2009
Low Skill (< high school)
21%
High Skill (at least a BA)
26%Source: The Geography of Immigrant Skills, Brookings 2011
Worker Shortage: What Do We Do?
• Automate
• Grow elsewhere
• Support in-migration
Entrepreneurs
• 6% of businesses in Minnesota are immigrant-owned
• 5,000 Hispanic-owned (’11) – Up 125% since 2006– Sales > $2 billion
• 11,370 Asian firms (’07)– Asian-Indian firms = 2400, >4,300 employees– Sales > $2.3 billion
• $772 million average annual sales (’06-’10)
• Downtown & neighborhood revitalization
Source: Minnesota Public Radio 2011, Concordia University 2011, CLAC
When you think “American”…
Immigrants Start Businesses
• > 40% of Fortune 500 companies started by immigrants or their children.
• Immigrants started 25% of high tech cos. from 1995-2005, creating 450,000 jobs.
• Immigrants lead some of MN’s largest companies: 3M, Lifetime Fitness, DeCare, Medtronic, Best Buy & Mosaic.
Source: Partnership for a New American Economy, Minneapolis/St. Paul Business Journal
Consumer Power
• Minnesota’s foreign-born: > $5 billion buying power
• Housing market in Minnesota (2000-2010):– 20% of growth in demand due to immigrants– 44% of rental growth due to immigrants– Depressed neighborhoods stabilized; new residents
attracted (including non-immigrants)
Economic Stimulus
• +1,000 immigrant professionals: – +7,100 new jobs by 2020– +$2.5 billion in personal income by 2045
• Reform to seasonal & part-time visas: – 8,800 new jobs– $348 million in personal income by 2020
• Localized effects: – New immigrants may hurt wages of low-skilled
native workers, but net economic benefit to U.S. is $80,000 per immigrant.
Connecting Us to the World
• Foreign investment & expertise key to growth
• MN’s steel & mining industries:– MN Steel (Nashwauk): India– ArcelorMittal Steel (Virginia): India– Gerdau Ameristeel (St. Paul): Brazil– Duluth Metals (Biwabik): Chile– Polymet (Hoyt Lakes): Canada
• Immigrants add diversity… that says, “World Economy Welcome Here!”
Unauthorized Immigrants…No Definitive Data
• 55,000 – 85,000 unauthorized
• Cost: about $176-$188 m per year:– K12 education: $146-158 m - Public health care:
$17 m – Incarceration: $13 m - Varies by
community
• On the other hand: – Annual state & local taxes paid, about $345 m– Limited access to public assistance
• Immediate cost < long term benefit
Hmong MN Experience
1980 2010Median Age 37 19.7College Graduates 5% 12.6%Workforce Participation Rate 27% 59%Median Household Income $17,481 $49,400Household Receiving Public Assist
67% 14%
Homeownership Rate 12% 49%Median Home Value $85,927 $161,10
0
Compiled by Dr. Bruce Corrie, Concordia University, St. Paul
MN’s Economic Reality…2030
• Population ages dramatically
• Labor force growth declines
• New enterprises critical to growth
• Needs foreign $$$s & expertise
• New Americans key to Minnesota’s growth
QUESTIONS?COMMENTS?
The Boom Generation Starts Turning 65 in 2011
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
18-24
65+
5-17
Census counts & State Demographer projection, revised 2007
65+ Passes School Age Around 2020
Competition for the Future Workforce Will Increase
6.8%
4.5%
-1.6%-2.2%
13.0%
-1.2%
-3.5% -3.0%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20
Per
cen
t C
han
ge
18-2
4 US
Mn
Census Bureau US Proj, Mn State Demographer revised 2007
Percent Foreign Born - MN & U.S., 1950-2008
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006-2008
Minnesota
U.S.