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INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON WATER RESOURCES IN
ECUADOR: A CASE STUDY OF HYDROELECTRIC PRODUCTION &
DROUGHTS
WATER RESOURCES PROJECT:
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Coordinators: Edison Heredia-Calderón Remigio H. Galarraga-Sánchez
Participants: Alexandre Gagnon
Andrea Ray
Claudine Dereczynski
Giampaolo Orlandoni
Ileana Mora
Marcos Costa
Patricia Jaime
Simone Ferraz
Thomas Pagano
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WATER MANAGEMENT PRACTICES
SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF RAINFALL
RAINFALL-RUNOFF TRANSFORMATIONBY CONCEPTUAL MATHEMATICAL MODEL
HIDROELECTRIC POWER PRODUCTION
CLIMATE VARIABILITY
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OBJECTIVE
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND HYDROELECTRIC POWER GENERATION
CLIMATE VARIABILITYPHYSICAL DAM CAPACITY
WATER RESERVES MANAGEMENTTO SATISFY THE POWER DEMANDGIVEN THE RESTRICTION POSED
BY
CLIMATOLOGY DISCHARGES
ENERGY DEMAND
HYDROELECTRICPOWER
GENERATION
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Calculate rainfall anomalies in terms of variance
PA = P – P p
where
P : mean precipitationp: standard deviation of precipitation
Monthly precipitation anomalies correlated with SST anomalies in region
•SST in region Niño1+2, Niño 3, and Niño 4•SOI
Identification of ENSO signal on the climate of Ecuador
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The Relationship Between SOI and Rainfall Anomalies in Portoviejo
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SST in Region Niño 1+2 versus Rainfall Anomalies in Portoviejo
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SST in Region Niño 3 versus Rainfall Anomalies in Portoviejo
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SSTA Niño 1+2 versus rainfall anomaliesin Portoviejo
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Correlation Between Strong El Niño versus Rainfall Anomalies in Coastal Ecuador
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Monthly Average Precipitation at Paute (1963-1999)
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Monthly Precipitation versus Niño 1+2 at Paute
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Monthly Precipitation versus Niño 3 at Paute
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Monthly Precipitation versus SOI at Paute
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Niño4 SST Anomaly Sep-Dec versus Jan-Aug Cumulative Streamflow at Paute 1968-95
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1970
North Atlantic SSTA Feb-Mar-Apr Average correlated with Jan-Aug Cumulative Streamflow
at Paute
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Hydroelectric power production at Paute river
• Mean yearly inflow discharge for normal, dry and wet years.
• Cumulated mass (discharge and volume) x inflow volumes for wet, dry and normal years
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MEAN YEARLY INFLOW DISCHARGE AT PAUTE
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CUMULATED MASS CURVES (Discharge and Volume)
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DAILY ENERGY PRODUCTION, INFLOW AND RESERVOIR ELEVATION (OCT, 1995)
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RAINFALL - RUNOFF MODEL " N L C "
DEFINITION OF THE MODEL
• NLC is aimed at simulation of outflow from natural catchments.
conceptual model consisting of storage (linear and nonlinear)
elements.
• NLC represents a single, two-component, rainfall-runoff model capable of modeling groundwater flow and direct runoff.
• NLC is a lumped type MODE
the input into the model is total rainfall over the catchment in each time
interval.
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Input Data
• Rainfall is provided at each simulation step. It could be supplied in two ways:
- up to ten rain gauges
- areal averages.
• Calibration procedure is not part of the package. Trial-and-error procedure must be used.
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MODEL VARIABLES
• PA input precipitation (mm)
• ETP evapotranspiration (mm)
• PE effective precipitation (mm)
• Qs direct runoff (m3/s)
• GI groundwater input (m3/s)
• Qg groundwater runoff (m3/s)
• Q total runoff (m3/s)
• QDD deep percolation (mm)
• parameters of the unsaturated zone
- ENN maximum water holding capacity (mm)
- EF actual water content (mm)
• Other parameters
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Simulated and Observed Discharge at Paute - 1989
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Climatic Zones at Paute Basin
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M050 ARENALES - COLA DE SAN PABLO PRECIPITACION MEDIA
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Climatic Zones at Paute Basin
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M067 CUENCA AEROPUERTO PRECIPITACION MEDIA
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Climatic Zones at Paute Basin
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M541 COCHAPAMBA QUINGEO PRECIPITACION MEDIA
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Climatic Zones at Paute Basin
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M418 CUMBE PRECIPITACION MEDIA
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M138 PAUTE PRECIPITACION MEDIA