INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
World Energy Outlook:World Energy Outlook:Key Strategic ChallengesKey Strategic Challenges
Maria ArgiriMaria ArgiriEconomic Analysis DivisionEconomic Analysis Division
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Energy Trends & Strategic ChallengesReference Scenario
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World Primary Energy Demand
Oil and gas together account for more than 60% of the growth in energy demand between now and 2030 in the Reference
Scenario
Coal
Oil
Gas
Other renewables Nuclear Hydro 0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mto
e
1971
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World Power Generation from Non-Hydro Renewable Energy
Sources
0
400
800
1 200
1 600
2 000
1990 2002 2030
TW
h
Biomass Wind onshore Wind offshore Geothermal
Solar PV Solar thermal Tide/wave
World non-hydro renewable electricity generation increases six-fold to 2030, mainly due to wind &
biomass
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Challenge 1:Security of
Supply
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OECD Oil Demand Growth by Sector,
1999-2005
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
PowerGeneration
Industry Transport Other
mb/d
In the OECD, the transport sector accounted for almost all the oil demand growth
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World Oil Production Shifts Away from OECD
Global oil production climbs from 82 mb/d in 2004 to 115 mb/d in 2030; OECD share falls from 25% to 12%
OECD
MENA
Other
NCO
41.2 mb/ d
50.5 mb/ d
13.5 mb/ d
30.9 mb/ d
29.0 mb/ d
20.2 mb/ d
2004 2030
2.2 mb/ d10.2 mb/ d
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Saudi Arabia’s Oil Production by Source in the Reference Scenario
0
4
8
12
16
20
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
mb
/d
Currently producing fields Fields awaiting development
Reserve additions and new discoveries Total production
Based on its reserves and global demand trends, Saudi oil production is projected to reach 18 mb/d in 2030
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Iran’s Oil Balance in the Reference Scenario
0
2
4
6
8
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
mb
/d
Net exports Domestic demand
Iran oil production reaches 6.8 mb/d in 2030, but exports increase
less rapidly due to strong growth in domestic demand
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Oil Production Outlook in Iraq in the Reference Scenario
Oil production in Iraq is expected to reach around 3 mb/d in 2010 and
8 mb/d in 2030, provided that stability and security are restored
0
2
4
6
8
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
mb
/d
Currently producing fields Fields awaiting development
Reserve additions and new discoveries Total production
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Proven Natural Gas Reserves
Gas reserves are concentrated in FSU and MENA regions – Russia and Iran together account almost half of global
gas reserves
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Share of International Gas Export Growth between 2004 and 2030
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Russia Iran Algeria Qatar
Qatar will account for almost one quarter of the increase in gasinter-regional trade between 2004 and 2030
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Challenge 2:Carbon Dioxide Emissions
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Global emissions grow more than 50% between now & 2030, with developing countries’ emissions overtaking OECD’s in the 2020s
Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Region
0
4 000
8 000
12 000
16 000
20 000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mt o
f CO
2
OECD Transition economies Developing countries
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CO2 Increase, 2004-2030
OECD CO2 additions equal to only three quarters of Chinese CO2 rise, but OECD emissions per capita still two times higher in
2030
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
China OECD
million
ton
nes
NorthAmerica
Pacific
Europe
0
3
6
9
12
15
ton
nes p
er c
ap
ita
2004
2030
2004
2030
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Challenge 3:Energy and
Poverty
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Per Capita Primary Energy Use, 2030
Per capita energy use remains much lower in developing countries
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Electricity Deprivation
In 2030, if no new policies are implemented, there will still be 1.4 billion people without electricity
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World Alternative Policy Scenario
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Examples of Policies included in the Alternative Scenario
Power generationRenewable energy (e.g., EU renewables directive)Cleaner coal technology (e.g., China and India)
Transport sectorImprove vehicle fuel efficiency (e.g. strengthening of US CAFE standards, extension of Chinese standards)Increased sales of alternative fuel vehicles and fuels (e.g., biofuels in Europe, Brazil)
Residential and commercial sectorsBuilding codes (e.g., US) Efficiency standards and labelling for appliances (e.g., India)
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Oil/Gas Demand in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios
Oil & gas demand in the Alternative Scenario are both 10% lower in 2030 due to significant energy savings and a shift in
the energy mix
2004 2030 Reference Scenario 2030 Alternative Scenario
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Oil Gas
mb/
d
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
bcm
12.1 mb/d500 bcm
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Global Energy-Related CO2 Emissions in the Reference and Alternative Policy
Scenarios
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
mill
ion
to
nn
es
of
CO
2
Coal Oil Gas Alternative Policy Scenario Reference Scenario
In 2030, CO2 emissions are 16% lower than in the Reference Scenario, but are still more than 50% higher than 1990
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Share of Non-Hydro Renewables in Electricity Generation, 2030
New policies would boost the share of non-hydro-renewables in global energy mix
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Transition economies
Africa
Middle East
South Asia
China
Latin America
East Asia
OECD Pacific
OECD North America
European Union
Alternative Scenario RSReference Scenario
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Transition economies
Africa
Middle East
South Asia
China
Latin America
East Asia
OECD Pacific
OECD North America
European Union
Alternative Scenario RSReference Scenario
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Summary & Conclusions
Projected market trends raise serious concerns
Increased risk for energy security Rising environmental concerns Persistent energy poverty
More vigorous policies would curb rate of increase in energy demand and emission significantly
Renewables can significantly contribute toward meeting these challenges
Urgent and decisive government action needed
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WEO 2006: Preliminary plan
World Alternative Policy Scenario a “tool for change” - asked by G-8 Deepening and broadening the analysis for developing
countries
Impact of high energy prices Impact of high oil, gas and electricity prices on energy
demand and macro economy Focus on developing Asia and Africa
Energy and Development Focus on unsustainable use of biomass
Country in focus: Brazil (ethanol, bagasse in CHP)