Download - Ipsos MORI Political Monitor February 2017
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1
Ipsos MORIFebruary 2017 POLITICAL MONITOR
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2
VOTING
INTENTIONS
3Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public
40%
29%
9%
4%
13%
5%
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,044 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th February 2017 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends
vote in General Elections = 748. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015
GE.
Voting Intention
37%
31%
8%
4%
13%
7%
ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +6
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +11
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER
4Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Au
g 0
3
Feb
04
Au
g 0
4
Feb
05
Au
g 0
5
Feb
06
Au
g 0
6
Feb
07
Au
g 0
7
Feb
08
Au
g 0
8
Feb
09
Au
g 0
9
Feb
10
Au
g 1
0
Feb
11
Au
g 1
1
Feb
12
Au
g 1
2
Feb
13
Au
g 1
3
Feb
14
Au
g 1
4
Feb
15
Au
g 1
5
Feb
16
Au
g 1
6
Feb
17
2015 General Election
Miliband
elected
(Sept 10)
Corbyn
elected
(Sept 15)
May
as PM
(July 16)
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote
and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections
Headline voting intention: August ‘03 – February ‘17
2005 General Election 2010 General Election
Cameron
elected
(Dec 05)
Brown
as PM
(June 07)
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM
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SATISFACTION WITH THE
GOVERNMENT AND
PARTY LEADERS
6Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public
Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn The Government
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF UKIP /LEADER OF THE LIBERAL
DEMOCRATS ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,044 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th February 2017. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
36%
54%
11%
53%36%
10%
24%
62%
15%
+5.5%swing from January
2017
-1.5%swing from January
2017
+1%swing from January
2017
+17 Net -38 Net -18 NetSATISFIED 53% SATISFIED 24% SATISFIED 36%
DISSATISFIED 36% DISSATISFIED 62% DISSATISFIED 54%
7Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS … ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – Feb 2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep
15
Oct
15
No
v 1
5
Dec
15
Jan
16
Feb
16
Mar
16
Ap
r 16
May 1
6
Ju
n 1
6
Ju
l 16
Au
g 1
6
Sep
16
Oct
16
No
v 1
6
Dec
16
Jan
17
Feb
17
MAY CORBYN
53%
24%
8Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER
Net
sati
sfact
ion
NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
May
9Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …
PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2017)
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
Net
sati
sfact
ion
HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) CORBYN (15-present)
Corbyn
10Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,044 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th February 2017
Theresa May (satisfaction)
53%36%
10%
February 2017 August 2016 – February 2017
SATISFIED 53%
DISSATISFIED 36%
DON’T KNOW 10%
Net = +17
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec-
16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
11Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 343 Conservative supporters 18+ , 10th – 14th February 2017
Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters
89%
8%4%
February 2017
SATISFIED 89%
DISSATISFIED 8%
DON’T KNOW 4%
Net = +81
August 2016 – February 2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec-
16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
12Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public
24%
62%
15%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec-
15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Ap
rl-1
6
May-1
6
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec-
16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
SATISFIED 24%
DISSATISFIED 62%
DON’T KNOW 15%
Net = -38
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,044 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th February 2017
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)
February 2017 September 2015 – February 2017
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
13Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public
41%
50%
9%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec-
15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Ap
rl-1
6
May-1
6
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec-
16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
SATISFIED 41%
DISSATISFIED 50%
DON’T KNOW 9%
Net = -9
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 264 Labour supporters 18+, 10th – 14th February 2017
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)
February 2017 September 2015 – February 2017
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
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ECONOMIC
OPTIMISM
15Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public
28%
24%
44%
4%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jul-
04
Jan
-05
Jul-
05
Feb
-06
Sep
-06
May-0
7
Dec-
07
Jun
-08
Dec-
08
Jun
-09
Dec-
09
Jun
-10
Jan
-11
Jul-
117
Jan
-12
Jul-
12
Jan
-13
Jul-
13
Jan
-14
Jul-
14
Jan
-15
Jul-
15
Feb
-16
Au
g-1
6
Feb
-17
IMPROVE 28%
STAY THE SAME 24%
GET WORSE 44%
DON’T KNOW 4%
EOI = -16
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,044 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th February 2017
Economic Optimism Index
February 2017
16Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jun
1997
Oct
1997
Feb
1998
Jun
1998
Oct
1998
Feb
1999
Jun
1999
Oct
1999
Feb
2000
Jun
2000
Oct
2000
Feb
2001
Jun
2001
Oct
2001
Feb
2002
Jun
2002
Oct
2002
Feb
2003
Jun
2003
Oct
2003
Feb
2004
Jun
2004
Oct
2004
Feb
2005
Jun
2005
Oct
2005
Feb
2006
Jun
2006
Oct
2006
Feb
2007
Jun
2007
Oct
2007
Feb
2008
Jun
2008
Oct
2008
Feb
2009
Jun
2009
Oct
2009
Feb
2010
Jun
2010
Oct
2010
Feb
2011
Jun
2011
Oct
2011
Feb
2012
Jun
2012
Oct
2012
Feb
2013
Jun
2013
Oct
2013
Feb
2014
Jun
2014
Oct
2014
Feb
2015
Jun
2015
Oct
2015
Feb
2016
Jun
2016
Oct
2016
Feb
2017
-16
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Foreign Relations
18Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public
47%
29%
19%
5%
EUROPE 47%
AMERICA 29%
COMMONWEALTH 19%
DON’T KNOW 5%
WHICH OF THESE - EUROPE, THE COMMONWEALTH OR AMERICA - IS THE MOST IMPORTANT TO
BRITAIN?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,044 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th February 2017
Britain’s foreign relations
February 2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19691984
19861989
19911993
19962002
20032014
2017
19Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS, WITH WHICH OF THESE FOREIGN LEADERS, IF ANY, DO YOU
THINK THERESA MAY SHOULD TRY TO BUILD THE STRONGEST RELATIONSHIP?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,044 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th February 2017
Theresa May’s relations with other leaders
26
24
17
12
5
3
3
1
4
6
Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor
Donald Trump, the US President
Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European
Commission
Xi Jinping, the Chinese President
Vladimir Putin, the Russian President
Francois Hollande, the French President
None of them
Other
All of them
Don’t know
20Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public
AS YOU MAY KNOW, DONALD TRUMP IS EXPECTED TO VISIT BRITAIN LATER THIS YEAR IN AN OFFICIAL
STATE VISIT HOSTED BY THE QUEEN. DO YOU THINK HE SHOULD OR SHOULD NOT HAVE BEEN INVITED
TO A STATE VISIT TO BRITAIN THIS YEAR?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,044 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th February 2017
President Trump’s state visit
53 42
SHOULD SHOULD NOT
21Political Monitor | February 2017 | Final | Public
AND IF DONALD TRUMP DOES VISIT BRITAIN LATER THIS YEAR, DO YOU THINK HE SHOULD OR SHOULD
NOT….?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,044 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th February 2017
President Trump’s state visit
44
43
45
47
52
43
SHOULD SHOULD NOT
Visit a London
mosque or Muslim community group
Be invited to give a
speech to peers and
MPs in the Houses of Parliament
Be invited to play a
round of golf on
the Queen’s golfcourse at Balmoral
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
22
February 2017POLITICAL MONITOR