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International View
Iran Refinery Outlook, Februay 2021
Naphtha
• In Asia, combination of crackers returning from maintenance and high LPG prices amid the colder-than-usual winter
will keep demand high through 1Q21, but regional production will largely move sideways through to April amid a
limited increase in refinery runs.
Gasoline
• It is expected the regional gasoline demand to reach close to 2019 levels of 1.9 mmb/d by August 2021. Overall,
2021 demand will only be 90 kb/d below 2019 levels.
Middle Distillate
• The March EFS spread was pegged at plus $1.25/mt. The recent declines in voyage rates are helping the arbitrage
to remain open, making viable to send cargoes from west to the east.
• Based on data from ICAO, in the most optimistic scenario, it is expected the passenger numbers to recover to 71%
of 2019 levels by June of 2021. A more pessimistic scenario would see a recovery to just 49%.
Fuel Oil
• HSFO supply is likely to remain tight due to lower refinery runs during the Spring turnaround season and also
because of lower availability of HS barrels as Saudi Aramco reduces supply of its medium/heavy HS crudes.
3
International View
• Runs are expected to remain flat during the Spring turnaround season as the ramp-up of new and idled capacity
should offset the loss of any capacity going offline for maintenance.
• Margins are also likely to remain flat over the next few months as the ongoing weakness in jet demand will offset the
recovery in other product cracks.
• There is currently much talk about demand recovering and the total hydrocarbon balance tightening, leading to crude
and product stock draws and higher crude oil prices. With prices currently in the high $50s/bbl, it seems a lot of non-
OPEC (especially the USA and Canada) production will be viable and OPEC (particularly Saudi Arabia) will have to
think hard about how they manage their production levels.
• Given the length in middle distillate this year, refiners will still have to be creative and maximise the amount of middle
distillate effectively the lighter part of jet/kero going into naphtha and gasoline.
• As global oil demand recovers further through 2021, the Call on OPEC+ is seen moving well beyond OPEC+’s
current planned production target levels. During this time, we see a lot of upside potential to oil prices, especially if
OPEC+ fails to respond quickly enough.
Iran Refinery Outlook, Februay 2021 4
Crude Oil
Iran Refinery Outlook, Februay 2021
34.00
36.00
38.00
40.00
42.00
44.00
46.00
48.00
50.00
52.00
54.00
56.00
58.00
10/02/20 10/09/20 10/16/20 10/23/20 10/30/20 11/06/20 11/13/20 11/20/20 11/27/20 12/04/20 12/11/20 12/18/20 12/25/20 01/01/21 01/08/21 01/15/21 01/22/21 01/29/21
$/b
Crude Oil Prices
WTI Brent Dubai
6
Source: Platts
Gasoline
Iran Refinery Outlook, Februay 2021
36.00
38.00
40.00
42.00
44.00
46.00
48.00
50.00
52.00
54.00
56.00
58.00
60.00
62.00
64.00
10/02/20
10/09/20
10/16/20
10/23/20
10/30/20
11/06/20
11/13/20
11/20/20
11/27/20
12/04/20
12/11/20
12/18/20
12/25/20
01/01/21
01/08/21
01/15/21
01/22/21
01/29/21
$/b
Gasoline Historical Prices
95RON FOB Singapore 95RON FOB Persian Gulf
92RON FOB Singapore 92RON FOB Persian Gulf
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
10/02/20
10/09/20
10/16/20
10/23/20
10/30/20
11/06/20
11/13/20
11/20/20
11/27/20
12/04/20
12/11/20
12/18/20
12/25/20
01/01/21
01/08/21
01/15/21
01/22/21
01/29/21
$/b
Gasoline Historical Cracks
95RON FOB Singapore 95RON FOB Persian Gulf
92RON FOB Singapore 92RON FOB Persian Gulf
7
Source: Platts Source: Platts
Kerosene
Iran Refinery Outlook, Februay 2021
34.00
36.00
38.00
40.00
42.00
44.00
46.00
48.00
50.00
52.00
54.00
56.00
58.00
60.00
62.00
10/02/20
10/09/20
10/16/20
10/23/20
10/30/20
11/06/20
11/13/20
11/20/20
11/27/20
12/04/20
12/11/20
12/18/20
12/25/20
01/01/21
01/08/21
01/15/21
01/22/21
01/29/21
$/b
Kerosene Historical Prices
FOB Singapore FOB Persian Gulf
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10/02/20
10/09/20
10/16/20
10/23/20
10/30/20
11/06/20
11/13/20
11/20/20
11/27/20
12/04/20
12/11/20
12/18/20
12/25/20
01/01/21
01/08/21
01/15/21
01/22/21
01/29/21
$/b
Kerosene Historical Cracks
FOB Singapore FOB Persian Gulf
8
Source: PlattsSource: Platts
Gasoil
Iran Refinery Outlook, Februay 2021
36.00
38.00
40.00
42.00
44.00
46.00
48.00
50.00
52.00
54.00
56.00
58.00
60.00
62.00
64.00
10/02/20
10/09/20
10/16/20
10/23/20
10/30/20
11/06/20
11/13/20
11/20/20
11/27/20
12/04/20
12/11/20
12/18/20
12/25/20
01/01/21
01/08/21
01/15/21
01/22/21
01/29/21
$/b
Gasoil Historical Prices
10ppm FOB Singapore 10ppm FOB Persian Gulf
500ppm FOB Singapore 500ppm FOB Persian Gulf
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
10/02/20
10/09/20
10/16/20
10/23/20
10/30/20
11/06/20
11/13/20
11/20/20
11/27/20
12/04/20
12/11/20
12/18/20
12/25/20
01/01/21
01/08/21
01/15/21
01/22/21
01/29/21
$/b
Gasoil Historical Cracks
10ppm FOB Singapore 10ppm FOB Persian Gulf
500ppm FOB Singapore 500ppm FOB Persian Gulf
9
Source: PlattsSource: Platts
Fuel Oil
Source: Platts Source: Platts
Iran Refinery Outlook, Februay 2021
34.00
39.00
44.00
49.00
54.00
59.00
10/02/20
10/09/20
10/16/20
10/23/20
10/30/20
11/06/20
11/13/20
11/20/20
11/27/20
12/04/20
12/11/20
12/18/20
12/25/20
01/01/21
01/08/21
01/15/21
01/22/21
01/29/21
$/b
Fuel Oil Historical Prices
180cst FOB Singapore 180cst FOB Persian Gulf
380cst FOB Singapore 380cst FOB Persian Gulf
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
10/02/20
10/09/20
10/16/20
10/23/20
10/30/20
11/06/20
11/13/20
11/20/20
11/27/20
12/04/20
12/11/20
12/18/20
12/25/20
01/01/21
01/08/21
01/15/21
01/22/21
01/29/21
$/b
Fuel Oil Historical Cracks
180cst FOB Singapore 180cst FOB Persian Gulf
380cst FOB Singapore 380cst FOB Persian Gulf
10
*ESPM: East of Suez Products Model. The model used by PetroView to forecast the oil products prices for the East of Suez markets.
Iran Refinery Outlook, Februay 2021
50.00
52.00
54.00
56.00
58.00
60.00
62.00
64.00
66.00
68.00
Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 2Q2021 3Q2021 4Q2021 1Q2022 2Q2022 3Q2022 4Q2022
$/b
Crude Prices Outlook
Brent WTI Dubai
Crude Oil
12
Source: ESPM based on Argus data*
Source: ESPM based on Argus data* Source: ESPM based on Argus data*
Iran Refinery Outlook, Februay 2021
Gasoline
13
54.00
56.00
58.00
60.00
62.00
64.00
66.00
68.00
70.00
72.00
74.00
76.00
$/b
Gasoline Prices Outlook FOB PG
87RON 95RON
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
$/b
Gasoline Cracks Outlook FOB PG
87RON 95RON
Iran Refinery Outlook, Februay 2021
Kerosene
14
Source: ESPM based on Argus data*Source: ESPM based on Argus data*
54.00
56.00
58.00
60.00
62.00
64.00
66.00
68.00
70.00
72.00
74.00
76.00
78.00
$/b
Kerosene Prices Outlook FOB PG
Jet/Kero
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
$/b
Kerosene Cracks Outlook FOB PG
Jet/Kero
Iran Refinery Outlook, Februay 2021
Gasoil
15
Source: ESPM based on Argus data*Source: ESPM based on Argus data*
52.00
54.00
56.00
58.00
60.00
62.00
64.00
66.00
68.00
70.00
72.00
74.00
76.00
78.00
$/b
Gasoil Prices Outlook FOB PG
10ppm 500ppm 2500ppm 5000ppm 10000ppm
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00
13.00
$/b
Gasoil Cracks Outlook FOB PG
10ppm 500ppm 2500ppm 5000ppm 10000ppm
Iran Refinery Outlook, Februay 2021
Fuel Oil
16
Source: ESPM based on Argus data*Source: ESPM based on Argus data*
48.00
50.00
52.00
54.00
56.00
58.00
60.00
62.00
$/b
Fuel Oil Prices Outlook FOB PG
180cst 380cst
-8.00
-7.00
-6.00
-5.00
-4.00
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
$/b
Fuel Oil Cracks Outlook FOB PG
180cst 380cst
Iranian Refineries
Refineries can produce large-range products. However, the five key products including LPG, gasoline, kerosene, gasoil,
and fuel oil conclude approximately 90 percent of Iran’s refineries. Accordingly, the cracks are calculated base on these
products.
Iran’s Refinery Margin Index (IRMI) is a benchmark provided by PetroView to assess the Iranian publicly-listed refineries'
profitability and represent an overview of the refining industry.
Output
Iran Refinery Outlook, Februay 2021
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Shahrivar Mehr Aban Azar Dey
m^3
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Isfahan
LPG Gasoline Kerosene Gasoil Fuel Oil Others
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Shahrivar Mehr Aban Azar Dey
m^3
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Tehran
LPG Gasoline Kerosene Gasoil Fuel Oil Others
18
Source: Codal.ir Source: Codal.ir
Iran Refinery Outlook, Februay 2021
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Shahrivar Mehr Aban Azar Dey
m^3
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Tabriz
LPG Gasoline Kerosene Gasoil Fuel Oil Others
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Shahrivar Mehr Aban Azar Dey
m^3
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Bandar Abbas
LPG Gasoline Kerosene Gasoil Fuel Oil Others
Output
19
Source: Codal.ir Source: Codal.ir
Iran Refinery Outlook, Februay 2021
0
50
100
150
200
250
Shahrivar Mehr Aban Azar Dey
m^3
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Shiraz
LPG Gasoline Kerosene Gasoil Fuel Oil Others
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Shahrivar Mehr Aban Azar Dey
m^3
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Lavan
LPG Gasoline Kerosene Gasoil Fuel Oil Others
Output
20
Source: Codal.ir Source: Codal.ir
Feedstock
Iran Refinery Outlook, Februay 2021
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Isfahan Tehran Tabriz Bandar Abbas Lavan Shiraz
%
Feedstock Share
Crude Oil Condensate
21
Source: Codal.ir
Output Share
Iran Refinery Outlook, Februay 2021
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Isfahan Tehran Tabriz Bandar Abbas Lavan Shiraz
%
Output by Products
LPG Kerosene Gasoline Gasoil Fuel Oil Others
22
Source: Codal.ir
Iran’s Refinery Margin Index
Iran Refinery Outlook, Februay 2021
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21
$/b
IRMI
23
Source: PetroView
Margin Outlook
Source: PetroView
Iran Refinery Outlook, Februay 2021
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 2Q2021 3Q2021 4Q2021 1Q2022 2Q2022 3Q2022 4Q2022
$/b
Margin Outlook
Isfahan Tehran Tabriz Bandar Abbas Lavan Shiraz
24
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