Download - June 2010 Your Markets Monthly
June 2010Volume 2, Edition 6
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In this edition:
• ASX200 Index trade idea; 'bearish or portfolio hedge' - William Chien
• Aegis research - Australian Equity Strategy - Sector Reports - Still value in some areas
• Coffee Futures at 12 Year Highs! - Tom Sellen, Dow Jones Newswires
• Foreign Exchange Forecasts - Credit-Suisse
• Advice from Top Traders - Summaries from Market Wizards
• Technical Indicator of the Month: Pivot Points - Jason Achjian
• Recommendation Program update - Commodities Basket Recommendations - William Chien's CFDs - Top Trader - Seasonal Spread Trading
28-Jun-10
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ASX200 Index trade idea; 'bearish or portfolio hedg e' - By William Chien
After rejection of the 4622 level on 21/06/2010, the XJO index appears to resume falling after the rebound in the last 3 weeks.
Hence, I would highly recommend hedging long term share portfolios. I have devised an XJO ratio put spread to take advantage of a potential drop in the XJO index or to hedge against an existing Aussie share portfolio.
The advantages of this trade are the following.
Low risk: maximum potential loss = $500 plus brokerage No ongoing margin requirement The positions will be profitable within a large price range below the current market price on expiryHigh potential reward: maximum potential profit = $3,500
Please ring the Dealing Desk on 1300 73 66 11 or email [email protected] if you would like the full trade details.
To receive all of Williams email recommendations in full detail please contact him by phone: 1300 73 66 11 or email:
Aegis research - Australian Equity StrategySector Reports - Still value in some areas
The aftermath of the global financial crisis, arguably extending from late 2007 to mid 2009 using US quarterly GDP movements as an indicator, has created an economic and investment landscape quite different from that which lead up to and helped create the conditions for one of the largest global economic declines since World War II.
Here in Australia, we appear to have weathered the crisis reasonably well with only one quarter in the last nine of negative economic growth, covering the abovementioned period, and that being a modest quarter on quarter decline of 0.8% in the December 2008 quarter when global trade quite literally, but temporarily ground to a halt. While Australia's economic growth has not been startling subsequent to this challenging brief period, quarterly GDP outcomes of 0.6%, 0.8%, 0.3%, 1.1% and 0.5% in the most recent March 2010 quarter have demonstrated a resilience to economic headwinds that many other western nations continue to grapple with, particularly in southern Europe (public sector debt, unemployment) and some segments of the United States and United Kingdom economies (unemployment, housing).
Of course, this in no small part is due to our fortuitous position of being geographically located close to two of the fastest growing large economies in the world, namely China and India, who happen to require large volumes of resources Australia has in reasonable abundance with a capacity to extract and transport them to these resource consuming nations. With the historical background of our present day resources industry largely being developed to supply raw materials and energy to the strongly growing Japanese economy post World War II, our major trade relationship is now with China, having surpassed Japan as Australia's biggest trading partner two years ago. Nevertheless, Japan remains an important customer to our extractive industries. An expanding Indian economy presents both direct and indirect benefit to our domestic fortunes, which cannot be under-estimated via its contribution to increased global demand for raw materials and energy, in addition to specific areas such as educational services.
The strength of our domestic banking system throughout the global economic downturn was, and continues to be, a major contributor to our economic resilience and steady advancement in prosperity. With the Federal Government introducing a bank guarantee on customer deposits in 2008 and banks raising additional capital to enhance reserves, access to foreign capital remained open, albeit on higher margins allowing a relatively "normal" banking system to operate, unlike many western peers where major banking collapses were occurring.
Closer to home, our ageing population, advancement in medical treatments and improving living standards continues to place greater and greater demand upon health services, both private and public. We foresee ongoing opportunities for our high quality Health Care sector in coming years, both domestically and abroad and no surprise that private equity is presently sniffing at the sector.
High domestic employment combined with sound economic growth will combine to provide a positive platform for well managed retailers to enjoy in coming years. While the global financial crisis has impacted consumers spending patterns somewhat, adopting a more conservative stance with respect to debt / savings and discretionary spending, this may act to remove some elements of lesser managed retailing competition. Retailing is a specialised business and this environment provides for those companies that do it well to prosper.
Overall, we believe economic, business and consumer spending patterns will become more measured in coming years, compared to the debt driven, living off the next generation ethos that was prevalent before the downturn. This provides an environment for high quality businesses to perform, while making it challenging for those not so well managed. For investors, an opportunity to either refocus or remain attentive to investing only in high quality stocks that our analysts will in the following sections.
The operating environment and economic outlook for Australia continues to improve and we expect a long term boost to business activity from Australia's position relative to the fast growing emerging economies across Asia. We retain our positive view on the long term growth prospects for the Australian economy, and by default the Australian banking sector. We see strong medium to long term growth prospects for the banks, supported by an increasing level of consumer, investor and business confidence as the shift in business focus to the rapid economic expansion across Asia.
In summary, we maintain positive (overweight) views towards the Banking, Health Care, Resources, Telecommunications and Retail sectors, believing they offer strong medium term returns from current levels but importantly commensurate with a manageable level of risk. We hold a relatively negative view (underweight) towards sectors such as Media and A-REIT's. While media stocks have enjoyed strong share price recovery rallies over the past year, we feel share prices may be ahead of fundamentals at this time and do not offer as attractive value. The A-REIT's sector, having stabilized in recent months with cap rates showing a degree of leveling, has nevertheless an ongoing hard road ahead with massive dilution impacts from necessary capital raisings last year to absorb before generating reasonable unit per share growth and hence meaningful lifts in distributions.
Aegis current recommendations - Retail and Resource sectors
StoneBridge Group has full access to Aegis research and Buy / Sell recommendations.
If you want a report on a particular ASX share from Aegis please email [email protected] with a request
Copyright © 2000 - 2009 Aegis Equities Holdings Pty Limited. All rights reserved.This information must be read in conjunction with the Legal Notice which can be located at http://www.aegis.com.au/public/disclaimer.aspx.
Larry Williams
Tom Scollon
Daryl Guppy
Coffee Futures at 12 Year Highs! - Tom Sellen, Dow Jones Newswires
Coffee futures have taken a breather in the last two sessions after vaulting to 12-year highs last week. Traders may be content to hold prices in narrow ranges as they assess the market's new trading parameters. September coffee rallied to a top of $1.7650 last Thursday but closed at $1.6875, as traders took profits off the newly minted 12-year peak and producers sold. Tight supplies of quality arabica beans continue to support the market, but there are signs that the supply situation may be softening. The market rally has been centered more on chart aspects than on fundamentals, as the global supply balance has been snug for some time, said Hussein Allidina, veteran analyst with Morgan Stanley. Tight supplies are now beginning to release their grip on the market with the onset of the large Brazilian coffee harvest, he said in a research note. In addition to supply concerns, coffee futures have shot up dramatically in the last two weeks because of "unfounded" frost concerns in Brazil. The weather scares, combined with a persistent fall in warehouse stocks, caused coffee futures to climb 25% in the last two weeks, said Allidina. He projects global 2010-2011 arabica coffee output to rise by 14.2 million bags, year-on-year, with ending stocks seen increasing by nearly five million bags to 367.2 million. ICE coffee's climb brought out increased producer selling above $1.70 a pound, a signal that the market may be forming a top, said Boyd Cruel, senior softs market analyst at Vision Financial Markets in Chicago. The rally was "way overdone," and with the Brazilian harvest picking up momentum, prices would be expected to fall more in line with the fundamentals, said Cruel. The high coffee prices and dry conditions have pushed Brazilian farmers to harvest 32% of the expected 41.5 million bags of arabica coffee through June 23, ahead of the average pace, an analyst with Safras & Mercado said Monday. Of the total arabica and robusta crop, Brazilian farmers have harvested 43% of the 54.6 million 60-kilogram bags. Weather in Brazil is expected to remain dry until July 11-12, when a cold front will bring two days of rain, forecasters said. They see no risk of crop-damaging frost in the main growing regions. Coffee futures also found outside market pressure on a lower trade in the commodity indexes and a firming U.S. dollar. A stronger dollar is normally bearish for commodities as it makes them more expensive in other currencies.
Guy Bower
Catherine Davey
Sari Mustonen-Kirk
Foreign Exchange Forecasts - Credit-Suisse
Neutral. Dollar funding stress is likely to continue on and off for the nextseveral quarters. This argues against being short the dollar, in our view.However, this does not mean the dollar should be intrinsically strong,absent worsening risk appetite, in our view. The USD’s central problemis that it is likely to be a negative-carry currency against most currenciesglobally other than the yen, euro, and Swiss franc until well into 2011.Against this background of exceptionally low US yields, we expectmarkets to become increasingly concerned over the next year about theissue of US imbalances as European data begin to improve later thisyear and euro existential concerns wane.
Comments
Bearish. We maintain our forecast for EURUSD to fall to 1.16 over thenext several months. The EUR is now a negative-carry currencysuffering a crisis of confidence without any near-term outlook for supportfrom interest rate policy. In particular, reserve manager sentimenttoward the EUR is crucial to its valuation but has been damaged. Wethink EURUSD will need to trade to obviously cheap levels to generatesustained buying interest in the near term. A positive surprise from thereal economy is the main risk to our view that we see.
Bearish. We expect USDJPY to trade in a 90 to 95 range through thesummer and our 12-month target remains 100, with the yen likely toweaken into 2011 as G10 rates gradually pull away from Japan-likelevels and return the yen to its traditional role as primary fundingcurrency. The Japanese policy environment will also likely move againstthe yen later this year. Our economists think that the government willbegin an open discussion on a shift in the Bank of Japan’s mandatetoward a positive inflation target. This could translate into increasedBOJ purchases of government debt, even as the US is beginning todefinitively exit QE programs.
Neutral. We have revised our three- and 12-month EURGBP forecastsdown to 0.82 and 0.79, respectively. We argued last month that sterlingseemed likely to move to a stronger range, but the surprise has beenthat this has come as early as it has. At a flow level, we think sterling isprobably benefiting from some diversion of reserve manager flows fromEuropean bonds into gilts. The emergency budget on 22 June is likely tobenefit the pound, as we think gains in fiscal credibility should outweighnegative growth/rates effects Above target inflation levels and stronggrowth readings lead our economists to expect the BoE to raise itspolicy rate 50bps by year-end vs. market pricing of only 31bps of hikesover the next year.
Bullish. We have revised our three-month EURCHF forecast to 1.33from 1.37. This maintains our bullish Swiss franc stance. We expect theSNB to continue managing the franc, intervening when necessary tocontrol the pace of its appreciation and so the tightening in Swissmonetary conditions. SNB policy toward the franc is likely to be datadependant on two fronts, namely the strength of the recovery in theglobal economy and the growth rate of Swiss mortgages. We note thatour new EURCHF forecast of 1.33 would put franc overvaluation to ourestimates of fair value at close to historical highs and push the Swissmonetary conditions index to its pre-crisis cyclical high.
Bullish. We have lowered our three-month AUDUSD forecast to 0.93from 0.97 but remain bullish. Market concern that Chinese growth isslowing, hurting demand for Australian commodities, seems overdone tous. Even if iron ore prices remain unchanged, we expect Australia’sterms of trade to rise to record highs in the second half of the year. Themarket is underpricing the RBA, in our view. Our rate strategists expectthe RBA to raise its policy rate 50bps by year-end and to continue hikingnext year. The market is pricing for only 19bps of hikes over the nextyear. The resources tax is a key risk to our view.
Bullish vs. the USD . We maintain our AUDNZD forecast profile. Wecontinue to think the market is underpricing the RBA more than theRBNZ on a 12-month basis. Nonetheless, we are bullish on bothantipodeans and expect interest rate spreads to move in favor ofAUDNZD, but also in support of NZDUSD. With the RBA priced to hikerates only 19bps over the next year relative to our expectation of at least50bps, the above leads us to think there is more room for interest ratemarkets to reprice the RBA relative to the RBNZ gong into the fall.However, we expect spreads to move in favor of both of the antipodeancurrencies against the USD given our expectation of an unchanged Fed.
Comments
Taken from the well known traders book, Market Wizards I by Jack D. Schwager are the following reasons as to why these traders have done so well. As you will see, MONEY MANAGEMENT comes up time & time again.
Michael Marcus worked for Commodities Corp. and over a 10 year period multiplied his company account by 2500 fold.Bet less than 5% of your money on any one idea.If you take a position in two related markets that is still one idea.Always use stops. Actually put them in, don't just use mental stops.Most important rule is to hold on to your winners and cut your losers.Follow your own light. When you try to incorporate someone else's style you often wind up with the worst of both styles.
Bruce Kovner has realised an 87% averaged annual compounded return over the last 10 years. In 1987 he made profits in excess of $300 million for himself and for the investors in his funds. $2000 invested with Kovner in early 1978 would have been worth over $1,000,000 by 1988.Risk management is the most important thing to be understood.Undertake, Undertake, Undertake.Whatever you think your position ought to be, cut it in half.Take risks of 1 to 2%.
Richard Dennis turned $400 in 1976 into $200 million by 1987.Trade small initially because that's when you are as bad as you are ever going to be.Learn from your mistakes.Don’t be misled by the day to day fluctuations in your equity.Focus on whether what you are doing is right, not on the random nature of any single trades outcome.
Paul Tudor Jones started as a broker. In his second year he grossed over $1,000,000 in commissions. He launched the Tudor Jones Fund in Sept 1894 with $1.5m under management. At the end of Oct 1988 each $1000 invested in this fund was worth $17,482 while the total amount of money he managed had grown to $330 million.Don't ever average loses.Decrease your trading volume when you are trading poorly.Increase your volume when you are trading well.Never trade in situation where you don’t have control eg. ahead of key reports.Always think of your entry point as last nights close - the only relevant question is whether you are bullish or bearish on that particular day.The most important rule of trading is to play great defence not great offence.Don't be a hero. Don’t have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.Don’t ever feel that you are very good. The second you do, you are dead!Don’t focus on making money. Focus on protecting what you have.
Gary Bielfeldt started with $1000 in 1962 as a one lot corn trader and by 1987 was a T-bond futures trader in the same league as the most prominent institutional market participants.Don't overtrade - it means you have to be right a lot just to cover commission.Be disciplined, patient, stick to good trades, have courage.You must be willing to lose and have a strong desire to win.Be adequately capitalised.When you are starting out don't get too far behind. Most traders have a tendency to take risks that are too large at the beginning. Be selective when you take risks.
Ed Seykota conceived and developed the first commercial computerised trading system for managing clients money in the early 1970's. $5000 invested with Seykota in 1972 would have been worth over $1,250,000 by 1988.Cut losses, cut losses, cut losses!!!Ride winners.Keep bets small.Follow the rules without question.Know when to break the rules - sometimes as you continue to study the markets you will find a new rule which breaks and then replaces a previous rule."Everyone gets what they want out of the markets".
ADVICE FROM TOP TRADERS Summaries from Market Wizards by Jack D. Schwager
Technical Indicator of the Month - Jason Achjian
Indicator - Pivot Points
WhatPivot Point analysis is used by some because it is a predictive, as opposed to lagging, indicator. It therefore uses the price from the previous period to calculate the probable support and resistance lines of the current period. Although it is mainly used in forex trading there are good reasons to be aware of it for indices and equities trading.
HowPivot Point = (previous days high + previous days low + previous days close)/31st Support Line = (2*Pivot Point) – previous days high1st Resistance Line = (2*Pivot Point) – previous days low2nd Support Line = Pivot Point – (previous days high – previous days low)2nd Resistance line = Pivot Point + (previous days high – previous days low
WhenWhen calculating pivot points, the pivot point itself is the primary support/resistance. This means that the largest price movement is expected to occur at this price. The other support and resistance levels are less influential, but may still generate significant price movements. Pivot points can be used in two ways. The first way is for determining overall market trend: if the pivot point price is broken in an upward movement, then the market is bullish, and vice versa. Keep in mind, however, that pivot points are short-term trend indicators, useful for only one period until they need to be recalculated. The second method is to use pivot point price levels to enter and exit the markets. For example, a trader might put in a stop order to buy 100 shares if the price breaks a resistance level. Alternatively, a trader might set a stop-loss for his active trade if a support level is broken.
You can now place orders, get market quotes and vie w your eBridge Trader account from your internet enabled mobile phone - Just type the following URL into your mobile phone internet browser and use your standard login details: mobile.ebridgetrader.com
Click OK once you’re satisfied with the settings. You will now see the indicator added to the chart.
You can later adjust settings by clicking the ‘Pivot{D}’ at the top left of the chart and then clicking on ‘Properties’, you can also delete the indicator from this menu.
If there is any feature of eBridge Trader that you’d like covered in next months newsletter please email your request to: [email protected]
How to add this to your Charts in eBridge Trader
Whilst in your workspace viewing a chart, click this symbol at the top of the chart, then >>> Trends >>> Pivot:
The default fields that appear can be adjusted at this point for this indicator; you can also adjust them later if you wish. You can also adjust colour and the weight of the line:
To open an eBridge Trader account or get further information on adding technical indicators to charts using eBridge Trader please contact Jason Achjian by Email: [email protected] or Phone: 1300-73-66-11.
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Recommendation Perfomance
Conditions
William Chien: [email protected]
William Chien: CFD Recommendation Service
*Balance is in AUD based on minimum quantities and is net of all commissions. Results are unaudited.Updated COB 31-05-10
Trading Objectives Trader Profile
If you receive but do not take advantage of 3 cons ecutive trades you will be removed from the email l ist. A minimum starting balance of $20,000 is required for this service.
To register your interest, open an account or reque st further information about this service please contact us: 1300-73-66-11
Please refer to toptraderthinking recommendation discalimer:
http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/marketnews.asp?id=288&action=viewarticle
This program focuses on trading CFDs on ASX shares with a short term view (less than 8 weeks in most cases). William Chien uses technical analysis to zoom in on potentially profitable opportunities and then forwards email recommendations to his distribution list. William is very conservative and will generally do no more than 4 trades in any given month. When conditions are not right William will not trade at all.
Traders with a relatively high risk tolerance and who also want a degree of involvement in their trading decisions would be best suited to this approach. No positions will be entered or exited without prior confirmation from each individual client. If you disagree with Williams view on any particular trade you are under no obligation to enter or exit the position.
Matt Kirk
Jason Achjian
Jason Achjian: [email protected]
Top-Trader - Seasonal Spreads in Futures & Options
http://www.toptraderthinking.com/toptrader/marketnews.asp?id=288&action=viewarticle
Recommendation Perfomance
*Last updated COB 31-05-10. Balance is net of commissionsPast performance is no guarantee of future results
The brokerage rate charged is US $15.00 per side of each trade +GST. If you receive and do not take advantage of 3 consecutive trades you will no longe r receive fully detailed email recommendations. Min imum starting balance of $15,000 is required.
Commissions / Conditions
In Brief
To register your interest, open an account or reque st further information about this service please contact us: 1300-73-66-11
Please refer to toptraderthinking recommendation discalimer:
Trader Profile
Top-Trader is a recommendation program designed to take advantage of historically high probability seasonal opportunities in a wide range of markets using futures and options spreads. On average, one trade per week is generated and the length of time in each trade is approx. 2-3 weeks. Stop losses are based on closing prices i.e. exits are made the following day if the market closes outside of the stop level.
This program suits those who want to take advantage of opportunities in stock indices, interest rates, currencies and commodities markets. Traders with a relatively high risk tolerance and who also want a degree of involvement in their trading decisions are best suited to this approach. No positions will be entered or exited without prior confirmation from each individual client.
William Chien
Philip Dooley
Please contact the Futures dealing desk for further information on recommendation programsPhone: 1300 73 66 11 Email: [email protected]
RECOMMENDATION PROGRAMS – UPDATE
TOP-TRADER - SEASONAL SPREAD TRADING
MINIMUM ENTRY LEVEL $A20,000
OCTOBER 2007 TO MAY 2010
MINIMUM ENTRY LEVEL $A10,000
WILLIAM CHIENS CFD RECOMMENDATIONS
UP 109.25% NET OF COMMISSIONS
JUNE 2008 TO MAY 2010
JUNE 2006 TO MAY 2010
NOTE: RESULTS ARE UNAUDITED – PLEASE CALL OR EMAIL TO REQUEST SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION IF YOU ARE CONSIDERING PARTICIPATING IN ANY OF OUR RECOMMENDATION PROGRAMS
COMMODITY BASKET RECOMMENDATIONS (CBR)
MINIMUM ENTRY LEVEL $A15,000 UP 19.77% NET OF COMMISSIONS
UP 49.03% NET OF COMMISSIONS
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To receive recommendations on an ongoing basis you must be a client of StoneBridge Group Gold Coast Derivatives desk. To open an account email [email protected] or contact the dealing desk on 1300 73 66 11. Please see our Recommendations & Information disclaimer on www.toptraderthinking.com Click on 'Market News' to read thoroughly prior to entering into any of our trades. There is always a risk of loss in derivatives trading. Past performance is no indication of future results. Do not trade with funds you cannot afford to lose. Seek independent financial consultation before entering any trade recommendation program. All information and recommendations are general advice only and we have not taken your personal financial position into consideration
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