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The Day After Tomorrow
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The science of climate change
What is climate and why do we think it is
changing? How can we predict climate when we cant
predict the weather?
What are the main uncertainties in climateprediction?
Simulating climate change: the science of
climate modelling.
Using spare capacity on personal computers for
global climate prediction.
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Climate is what we expect; weather is whatwe get
Climate is the statistics of the weather
Mean annual Indian Rainfall Average October temperature in Astana
How often hurricanes happen in the Gulf of
Mexico
What is the Climate?
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get
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In the light of new evidence and taking into account the remaining uncertainties,
most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been dueto the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report, 2001
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Mountain glaciers of
the Zailiiskiy Alatau
Source: Stephan Harrison,
University of Oxford
416 glaciers
Losing 0.7% of their mass per year(1955 2000)
Glaciers are mainly small, with rapid
response times
75-80% of water supply derived from
glaciers and permafrost
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Multiyear fluctuations of mean January monthly temperatures in the northern Zailiiskiy
Alatau range (1 Almaty, 847 m asl, 2 Bolshaya Almatinskoye Lake, 2516 m asl).
Solid line is the 10-year moving average.
-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990Years
T,C
1
2
Source: Stephan Harrison,
University of Oxford
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Tuyuksu Glacier
5km long
4km2 in area
Measurements since 1870
Retreated throughout 20th century
Retreated 10m in 2000
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Tuyuksu Glacier mass balance
Source: Stephan Harrison,
University of Oxford
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Climate is determined by factors like:
Solar irradiance (power output of the sun)
Volcanic activityAtmospheric composition (greenhouse
gases etc...)
Positions of continents, ice-sheets etc.
We call these the forcing mechanisms
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SUN
Sunlight
passesthrough the
atmosphere..
..and warms the earth.
..most escapes to outer space
and cools the earth...
Infra-red radiationis given off by the earth...
but some IR is
trapped by somegases in the air,
thus reducing the
cooling.
Source: Ellie Highwood
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Energy in the climate system
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Leaky Bucket
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Weather/ climate model
MODEL
observations
What we know will
change in the future
Models are simplified versions of real
systems
In the case of climate prediction, what we
mean by a model is a set of equations that
represents how the atmosphere and oceans
behave how temperature patterns develop,
how winds blow etc.
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General Circulation Model of the Atmosphere:
3 Equations of Motion
Equation of State
Energy EquationMass Conservation }
3D wind field
Temperature
PressureDensity
Convection scheme
Cloud scheme
Radiation scheme Sulphur cycle
Precipitation
Land surface and vegetation
Gravity wave drag scheme
The Model also includes:
Each of these equations is evaluated at each point in the model [96
longitudes by 73 latitudes by 19 vertical levels] every half hour
timestep
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Models forced by natural changes
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Models forced by anthropogenic changes
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Models forced by anthropogenic and natural
changes
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Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration
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Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report, 2001
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We can produce very detailed predictions of
climate change with no idea of how reliable theymight be
2080
temperature
change (K)
2080
precipitation
change (%)
Source: Dr. Mat Collins, Hadley Centre
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Do you trust a weather forecast?
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Double Pendulum
Courtesy of Ross Bannister
Initial speed
400.1 degrees/ sec
Initial speed
400.0 degrees/ sec
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Does the Flap of a Butterfly's Wing in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?
Ed Lorenz
CHAOS
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The climate is like a
game of roulette
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Parameters perturbed Critical Relative Humidity (RHcrit)- related to the cloud cover distribution in a grid box.
Accretion constant (CT)
- related to growth of rain droplets and lifetime of clouds.
Condensation nuclei concentration (CW)
- affects water holding capacity and lifetime of clouds.
Ice fall velocity (VF1)
10.5 2.0VF1
5x10-52x10-5 5x10-4CW - sea
2x10-41x10-4 2x10-3CW - land
1x10-45x10-5 - 4x10-4CT
0.70.5 0.95 (0.6 0.9)RHcrit
Standard valuesRange:Parameter:
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Climate Sensitivity
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So for a complete climate forecast, we need to find out what hundreds of thousands
of models do.
Initial conditions: all the possible butterflies
Forcing mechanisms: carbon dioxide, volcanoes
Parameters climate models arent perfect
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Hundreds of Thousands of possible model
variants
Standard model
set-up
Perturbed
physics
ensemble
Initial
condition
ensemble
Boundary Conditions
(forcing) ensemble
Overallem
bedded-ensemb
le
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www.climateprediction.net
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Experiment 1 (September 2003 end 2005)
How does each model react when carbon dioxide is doubled?
Investigate the sensitivity of the models to changes in the composition of the
atmosphere
Experiment 2 (February 2006)
How well does each model do at reproducing the climate of 1950-2000?
Find out which models we believe more than others
What climate does each model predict for 2000 - 2050?
A probability-based climate forecast for the 21st century
Climateprediction.net experiment design
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Climate Sensitivity: the equilibrium response of globally
averaged temperature to a doubling of Carbon Dioxide
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47334 climateprediction.net simulations passing
initial quality control
Courtesy of Ben Sanderson
Traditional range
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High risk of substantial warming even with
todays greenhouse gas levels
Can we really talk about a safe stabilisation limit?
R i l d i i i
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Standard model
version
Low sensitivity
model
High sensitivity
model
Regional responses: temperature and precipitation
Regional Behaviour European Precipitation
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Regional Behaviour European Precipitation
Mediterranean Basin Northern Europe
WinterWinter
Summer
Summer
Annual Annual
Unpublished analysis fromclimateprediction.net: Source: David Stainforth
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Record hot events are more likely in a generally warmer world
S 2003 t t
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Summer 2003 temperatures
relative to 2000-2004
From NASAs
MODIS - Moderate
Resolution Imaging
Spectrometer,
courtesy of Reto
Stckli, ETHZ
Excess mortality rates in early August 2003 indicate 22 000
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Excess mortality rates in early August 2003 indicate 22,000
- 35,000 heat-related deaths
Daily mortality in Baden-Wrttemberg
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Was the hot summer of 2003 due to climate change?
Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases have doubled the risk of a
summer like 2003
By 2050, it could be that hot every other summer
We cant say.
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In law, if you can show that the actions of a person ororganisation have doubled the risk of a damaging event,
you can claim compensation for the damage caused
Fossil fuels are artificially cheap, since we pay for thecost of extraction, and not for the cost of the impacts
If politicians were to apply the polluter pays principal to
the producers of fossil fuels, it may well make more senseto sell carbon neutral fuel (from a renewable energy
source, or where an equal amount of carbon has been
removed from the system in compensation)
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What is Carbon dioxide Capture and
Storage (CCS)?
Source: Claire Gough, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
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More acceptable solution than nuclear power?
Current price of carbon is 15 per tonne CO2
Research shows cost of capture, transport
and storage from UK power stations to bebetween 25 and 60 per tonne CO2
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The technology is already in use Sleipner: 1 MTCO2 per annum since 1996 stored
in saline aquifers below North Sea.
Weyburn Enhanced Oil Recovery Programme:20 Mt CO2 will be stored. CO2 supplied via a 205mile pipeline from plant in North Dakota.
In Salah, Algeria: Storage in HydrocarbonReservoirs CO2 to be removed from the gasproduced and reinjected into depleted gas
reservoirs
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We have no objection in principle to the capture ofcarbon dioxide and its storage in underground formations
but the pursuit of this technology is a distraction from the
real priorities of implementing renewable energy and
energy efficiency technologies which are available rightnow. We've given tax breaks to companies for getting oil
and gas out of the ground, we shouldn't subsidise them to
put the subsequent pollution back underground."
Bill Hare, Greenpeace. Guardian 15/06/05
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2005 U.K. Budget:"Carbon capture and storage [] is likely to
prove a critical technology in global carbon
reduction strategies. The Government istherefore examining how it might support
the development of CCS in the Climate
Change Programme Review, including thepotential for new economic incentives."
Standard Visualisation Package
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www.climateprediction.net
g
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Since September 2003,
105,000 participants in 142 countries (8 in Kazakhstan)have
completed 115,000 45 -year model runs
computed 8 million model years
donated 8,000 years of computing time
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Temperature 2000 - 2100
Will the results of experiment 3 look like this made up figure?