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Kits Vs. Install: Mass Distribution Strategies & Results
Jackie Berger
David Carroll
2008 ACI Home Performance Conference
Pittsburgh, PA
April 8, 2008
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Session Outline
• Introduction
• Colorado Program Design
• Colorado Implementation
• Colorado Evaluation – Observations and Inspections
– Client Survey
– Impacts
• Iowa Study Impacts
• Overview
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Introduction
• Legislation – Passed in response to energy price increases
• Goal – Furnish “immediate savings to a large group of households”
• Approach – Analysis / Testing / Assessment
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Colorado Program Design
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Program Models Review
• Direct Install– Neighborhood Blitz
– Marketing to Targeted Households
• Workshop– Group
– One-on-One
• Mass Mailing– Targeted Direct Mail
– Targeted Business Reply Card
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Direct Install Models
Design Issues Approach
Blitz TargetedRecruitment Cost Low Moderate
Delivery Cost Low High
Targeting Low Income Fair Excellent
Targeting High Users Poor Good
Leverage Educator Poor Poor
Peer Support Fair Poor
Customized Information Fair Good 6
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Workshop
Design Issues Approach
Group One-on-OneRecruitment Cost High Low
Delivery Cost Low Low
Targeting Low Income Good Good
Targeting High Users Good Poor
Leverage Educator Excellent Good
Peer Support Excellent Poor
Customized Message Fair Good 7
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Mass Mailing
Design Issues Approach
Direct BRCRecruitment Cost Low Low
Delivery Cost Low Low
Targeting Low Income Good Good
Targeting High Users Fair Fair
Leverage Educator Excellent Excellent
Peer Support Poor Poor
Customized Message Poor Fair 8
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Program Models ReviewEvaluation Findings• Found to be Cost-Effective (Utility Billing Data)
– Ohio EPP
• Indeterminate Findings (Utility Billing Data)– NMPC LICAP Workshop
– Iowa Workshop/Kit Program
• Projected to be Cost-Effective (Survey/Engineering)– Many Program Models
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Recommendations
• Fund Multiple Program Models• Set Minimum Cost-Effectiveness Guidelines• For Each Model
– Assign savings for each measure
– Assign effective installation rate for each measure
– Vendors compete on Cost / Approach / Capacity
• Use M&V to Revise Program Parameters & Funding Allocations
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Planning Tools
• Measure Savings Worksheets– Saving from Measure– Effective Number
• Percent of Homes with Opportunity
• Percent of Homes Adopting
• Percent of Homes Retaining
– Savings (kWh or Therms)– NPV of Savings
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Saving AssumptionsDirect Install - kWh
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Installed/ Action Taken
Effective Number
Savings/Home (kWh)
Net Present Value
CFLs 15.0 13.5 729 $382.17
Turn Up Refrigerator 5 Degrees .503 .251 31 $7.74
Turn Off Computer at Night .125 .100 29 $7.20
Total 789 $397.11
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Saving AssumptionsDirect Install - Therms
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Installed Effective Savings/ Home
(Therms)
Net Present Value
Showerhead 0.375 0.300 9.90 $78.36
Lower Water Heater Temperature 10 Degrees .503 0.251 6.28 $17.52
Lower Thermostat 5 Degrees .150 0.075 5.63 $15.70
Set Back Thermostat 5 Degrees .250 0.125 3.13 $8.72
Use Cold Water for Laundry .250 0.125 12.50 $34.89
Total 37.44 $155.19
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RFP Tools
• Cost-Effectiveness Spreadsheets– Measure Level
• Percent of Homes
• Number of Measures
– Cost Level• Administrative Costs
• Service Delivery Costs
• Measures Costs
– Output: Benefit-Cost Ratio
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Benefits of Approach
• Funds All Models– Doesn’t exclude promising approaches / vendors
• Common Parameters/Assumptions– Doesn’t base policy on projections
– Puts all vendors on equal footing
– Encourages community based organizations to bid
• M&V– Improves long-term cost-effectiveness
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Colorado Program Implementation
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Direct Install - Providers
• Youth Corps service delivery
• GEO sends LEAP lists to the Youth Corps
• 5 subcontractor Youth Corps directly access client lists for their service territories
• Youth Corps call households to set up appointments
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Direct Install – Home Visit• Install CFLs
• Install showerheads
• Install smoke/CO detectors
• Adjust refrigerator, freezer, hot water, and heating/cooling thermostats
• Provide card to measure refrigerator temperature and hot water temperature
• Educate client on temperature adjustments
• Referrals to Weatherization and United Way 18
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Direct Install – Data Management• MHYC hired developer to create and host
web-based database
• Extensive data collected and recorded
• Generates reports
• Scheduling tool
• Installation tracking
• Inventory tracking
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Direct Install – Database Fields
• Client name, address, and phone number.
• Client LEAP number
• Home owner/renter
• Date of service delivery
• Youth Corps organization that provided service delivery
• Youth Corps members and crew leader that provided service
• Previously existing bulbs and wattage by room
• Number of installed bulbs by wattage and room
• Water flow in current showerhead
• Number of showerheads provided
• Existing temperature in refrigerator, freezer, hot water, and furnace setting
• Whether an adjustment was made to each of the temperatures
• Number of smoke/CO detectors installed 20
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Workshop - Providers
• Managed by Energy Outreach Colorado
• One-on-one model
• Services provided by agencies that deliver emergency energy assistance
• 10 agencies around the state
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Workshop - Clients
• LEAP eligible clients are eligible for services
• Agencies can connect to energy providers to look at clients’ energy usage
• Energy usage is not used to qualify for program
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Workshop – Service Delivery
• Describe program
• Review energy kit
• Explain connection with bill
• Review education materials
• Discuss measure installation
• Goal is to empower clients
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Workshop – Kits
• 13 watt CFL and 23 watt CFL
• Energy efficient showerhead
• Hot water thermometer
• Refrigerator/freezer thermometer
• Information on how to use the thermometer
• Quick start guide and energy saving tips
• Order form (more CFLs and showerheads)
• Follow-up survey24
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Mass Mailing - Providers
Clients Served By Provider
P1 P2 P3
Mass Mailing 9,000 5,500
Business Reply Card 600 1,600
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Mass Mailing - Providers
Kit Contents
P1 P2 P3
13/15 Watt CFLs 2 2 1/2/0
20/23 Watt CFLs 2 2 3/2/4
Showerhead 1 1 1
Hot water card 1 1 1
Refrigerator card NO 1 1
GEO brochure YES YES YES
Education/instructions YES YES YES26
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Mass Mailing – BRC Response
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First Mailing Second MailingDate sent 3/28/07 4/20/07# postcards mailed 2,000 3,035Bad Addresses 900 45% 395 13%Good Addresses 1,100 55% 2,640 87%Responses 281 26% 202 8%
Kit 1 30 11% 24 12%Kit 2 164 58% 107 53%Kit 3 87 31% 71 35%
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Initial Service DeliveryStatistics
ClientsCFLS
ShowerheadSmoke/
CO15 W 20 W Total
Direct Install
2,378 9.2 4.0 13.1 0.7 1.0
Workshop 275 1 1 2 1 0
Mass Mailing
10,000 2 2 4 1 0
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Colorado Program EvaluationObservations and Inspections
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Observations and Inspections - goals• Understand actual implementation
• Assess barriers
• Qualitative indicators of potential impact
• Identify how procedures can be improved
• Identify additional energy-saving opportunities
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Observations and Inspections• Service delivery observation – 9 jobs
• Training observation – classroom and field
• Inspections – 29 jobs
• Observation or inspection conducted for 4 of the 6 youth corps
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Training Observation
Strengths Areas for Improvement
•Client relationship •Assess incandescent use
•Followed protocols •Explain during installation
•Described program •Demonstrate temperature cards
•Respected homes •One installation at a time
•Explained CFL savings
•Discussed temperatures
•Referrals
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Service Delivery ObservationStrengths Areas for Improvement
•Described program •Discussion of actions
•Discussed lighting in every room
•Crew members need more information about energy efficiency
•Measured shower flow •No referrals
•Checked all temps •Don’t have all needed tools
•Showed client how to measure
•Discussed CFL savings
•Left boxes for customer33
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Inspections - Focus
• CFLs – Did the client know where the CFLs were installed, how many hours per day the bulbs were used, and how satisfied the client was with the bulbs?
• Showerheads – Could the client identify the replacement, and how satisfied was the client was with the new showerhead?
• Temperature changes – Could the client identify the temperature change, and how satisfied was the client was with the temperature change?
• Program satisfaction – What was the overall program satisfaction?• Opportunities – Some of the inspections included a discussion of
additional opportunities for energy saving.
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Inspections - CFLs
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CFL Identification#Installed 11.6#Identified 10.4
CFL UseAverage Hours/Day 2.3Max Hours/Day 5.7Min Hours/Day 0# <1 Hour/Day 3.3# <.5 Hour/Day 1.9
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Inspections – Showerheads
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Showerhead Identification
#Installed 19#Identified 18
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Inspections – Temperature Turndowns
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InspectionsAdditional Opportunities
Number PercentComputer on all night 1 8%Willing to turn off? 0 0%Not cold water for laundry 7 54%Willing to use cold? 2 29%Heat not set back 4 31%Heat willing 0 0%
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Process Evaluation Summary• Program Design
– Spent time up front to investigate promising program models and analyze potential program savings.
– Initially implemented services on a relatively small scale.
– Initial implementation kept simple, with few client behavior change goals.
– After evaluation results are in, they will determine how to modify program offerings.
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Process Evaluation Summary• Implementation Recommendations
– Client involvement: The client should be given the opportunity to observe and participate in measure installation.
– Bulb replacement: Discuss whether a light is used prior to replacing a bulb.
– Temperature changes and cards – Spend more time reviewing the temperature cards with the clients and should investigate whether they can obtain more user-friendly materials.
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Process Evaluation Summary• Implementation Recommendations
– Referrals: Need policy on when referrals should be made to WAP.
– Tools: Make sure that all needed tools are available to the Youth Corps members.
– Education opportunities: Take advantage of targeted opportunities to provide additional education to clients. This includes follow-up calls made by providers and inspections done by third party contractors.
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Colorado Program EvaluationClient Survey
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Survey Goals
• Assess program effectiveness
• Compare three delivery methods
• Recall and retention of energy efficiency measures received or installed
• Energy saving actions
• Satisfaction with efficiency measures and services
• Household energy costs and health issues
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Survey Methodology
• Conducted in August and September 2007
• Clients served in the first six months of service delivery – January through June 2007
• Clients in the three delivery method groups: direct install, workshop, and mass mailing
• Oversampling of less common delivery methods and service providers
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Survey Results –Measure Identification
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Survey Results –Measure Identification
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Survey Results –CFL Use
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Direct Install
WorkshopMass
Mailing# of CFLs Received 9.8 4.3 4.0# of CFLs Installed 9.8 3.2 2.8# of CFLs In Use 9.1 3.2 2.7# of CFLs used > 30 minutes/day
5.7 2.6 2.1
# of CFLs used > 4 hours/day
2.8 1.1 1.3
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Survey Results –Showerhead Use
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Survey Results –Water Thermometer Use
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Direct Install
WorkshopMass
Mailing
Recalled Receipt 42% 78% 54%
Understand How to Use 39% 67% 41%
Used Thermometer 20% 48% 22%
Changed Water Temperature Setting
18% 42% 26%
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Survey Results –Refrigerator Thermometer Use
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Direct Install
WorkshopMass
Mailing
Recalled Receipt 48% 72% 67%
Understand How to Use 44% 65% 61%
Used Thermometer 28% 50% 46%Changed Refrigerator/Freezer Temperature
20% 43% 28%
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Survey Results –Energy Usage Behavior
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Question: Have you made any other changes to reduce your energy use as a result of the program?
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Survey Results –Behavior Changes
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Direct Install
WorkshopMass
Mailing
Reduced Use of Heat 9% 27% 13%
Reduced Use of Air Conditioning 3% 7% 10%
Discard Unused Refrigerators 5% 9% 4%
Turn Off Computers Not in Use 7% 11% 8%
Turn Off Lights Not in Use 6% 21% 13%
Wash Clothes in Cold Water 9% 19% 10%
Question: What other action have you taken to reduce your energy use as a result of the program?
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Survey Results –Behavior Changes
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Direct Install
WorkshopMass
Mailing
Program was Very Helpful 64% 81% 53%Energy Bills are Lower 53% 51% 39%
MM1 BRP2 MM3 BRP3
Program was Very Helpful 51% 57% 53% 54%
Energy Bills are Lower 32% 48% 40% 49%
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Survey Results –Saving Estimates
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Direct Install WorkshopMass
Mailing
kWh Savings 440 232 197Therm Savings 9 32 16Net Present Value $251 $201 $140Average Cost $228 $121 $21-$43
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Survey Results –Additional Opportunities
55
Direct Install WorkshopMass
Mailing
Night heat setback 37% 39% 36%Night computer off 5% 7% 8%Cold water laundry 13% 8% 13%Remove Refrigerator 3% 8% 3%
Percent of all respondents who have equipment, are not already taking the action, and are very or somewhat willing to do so.
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Colorado Program EvaluationImpact Analysis
(Michael Blasnik)
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Impact Analysis –Saving Estimates
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NUsage (kWh) Savings (kWh)
Pre Post Gross Net
Direct Install 1,226 5,777 5,645 131 250 (±56)
Mass Mailing 4,224 6,088 6,175 -86 28 (±36)
Business Reply Card 501 5,607 5,638 -31 145 (±86)
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Case Study of Reported and Observed Energy Savings of a
Kit Program
Affordable Comfort ConferenceApril, 2008
Dalhoff Associates, LLC
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Study Purpose
• Examine the estimated and observed savings of a kit program implemented in Iowa
• Explore reasons for the differences between reported and observed energy savings
• Provide guidelines for assessing the reliability of reported measure and program savings
Dalhoff Associates, LLC
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Program Background
• Piloted in 2004 / 2005 heating season.• Five agencies provided 990 kits which were
installed by the clients.
Dalhoff Associates, LLC
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Program Measures
• 2 faucet aerators• 1efficient showerhead• 2 compact fluorescent bulbs• Filter ToneTM alarm• Temperature cards for rooms,
refrigerators/freezers, and water• Water-flow measurement bag• Informational booklet
Dalhoff Associates, LLC
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Impact Analysis
• Electric and gas billing analyses
• Study groups: • 357 treatment and 9,519 comparison group electricity
accounts, • 333 treatment and 9,636 comparison group natural gas
accounts
Dalhoff Associates, LLC
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Comparison of Projected and Observed Impacts
Electricity Savings • Projected1 :
• 429 kWh (5.6%)
• Observed (Billing Analysis)2: • Unscreened: 147 kWh +/- 170• Screened: 46 kWh +/- 161
Natural Gas Savings
• Projected1 : • 75 therms (8.9%)
• Observed (Billing Analysis)2 :• Unscreened: 26 therms +/- 23• Screened: 21 therms +/- 17
Sources1Report: Iowa Energy Wise Program Analysis Prepared for: Iowa Utilities Association October
18, 2005, prepared by Quantec LLC and Resource Action Programs2 Report on the Interaction Between Iowa’s Statewide Low-Income Weatherization Program
and the Energy Wise Program. Revised March 3, 2008, prepared by Dalhoff Associates, LLC.
Dalhoff Associates, LLC
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Projected and Observed Savings
Note: The upper and lower brackets indicate 90% confidence interval on observed savings
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Sav
ings
s
Series8Series7Series6Filter Tone AlarmBehaviorsAeratorShowerheadLighting
Electricity Savings (kWh)
Natural Gas Savings (therms)
Estimated Observed
Estimated Observed
Unscreened Screened
Unscreened Screened
Dalhoff Associates, LLC
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Overview
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Overview –Projected and Actual Savings
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kWh Savings
Direct Install
Workshop BRC
CO Modeled Savings 790 395 89
CO Survey Results 440 232 197
CO Impact Results 250 N/A 145
IA Projected Savings 429
IA Impact Results 46
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Overview –Projected and Actual Savings
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Therm Savings
Direct Install
Workshop BRC
CO Modeled Savings 37 34 9
CO Survey Results 9 32 16
CO Impact Results N/A N/A N/A
IA Projected Savings 75
IA Impact Results 21
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Overview –CFL Saving Estimates
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Program Program TypeSavings/
CFL
CO First ResponseDirect Install 19*BRC 36*Mass Mailing 7
IA Workshop 23OH High Use Direct Install 41*OH Moderate Use Direct Install 26*NJ Comfort Partners Direct Install 40*CO E$P Direct Install 47**Indicates statistically significant.