Download - Large scale change through a small window…
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Large scale change through Large scale change through a small window….a small window….
Philip F. Henshaw
UDATE 10 JAN 06
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The whole history of growthThe whole history of growth
Probably 3 ½% per year average since the early RenaissanceProbably 3 ½% per year average since the early Renaissance
640 years640 years
Only 8 80yr lifetimesOnly 8 80yr lifetimes
Productivity increase by factor of ~4 BillionProductivity increase by factor of ~4 Billion
From every age the future was just off the page! Can we continue?From every age the future was just off the page! Can we continue?
1347
-51
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The whole history of growthThe whole history of growth3 ½% per year since the early Renaissance3 ½% per year since the early Renaissance
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A century of growthA century of growth
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A century of growthA century of growth
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A lifetime of growthA lifetime of growth
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A lifetime of growthA lifetime of growth
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A decade of growthA decade of growth
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The decade of growthThe decade of growth
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The last 100 yearsThe last 100 years
To judge the approach of climax, you look for the symptoms
Issues of limits, over-burden of complexity, divergence
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Fast & SlowFast & Slow
Gamma ray burst 1/20 sec Plankton evolution 2 Myr
Recorded growth phases of natural systems
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Phases of natural system evolutionPhases of natural system evolution
2 steps of Self organization 2 steps of breakup and decay
Complex system change builds up & tapers off, using proportional change feedback
mechanisms
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Possible growth futuresPossible growth futures
after using up the easy stuff just
scrape bye
growth to collapse for
$$$
Continually evolving climax free market
When physical climax occurs, choosing whether to keep trying to provide perpetual growth for the financial one.
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Possible growth futuresPossible growth futures
growth to collapse for $$$ A well oiled machine serving all
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