Download - Latest Economic Trends - ARC's The Quarter
The Atlanta Regional Commission’s “The Quarter” looks at some of the leading indicators of overall economic health from a non-economist’s view. It compares Atlanta to other metropolitan areas and looks at the counties within the region where the data allow. While this is not a comprehensive look at the local economy, it is a gauge of the general direction the economy is moving.
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ATL
US
Source: BLS
Atlanta continues to outperform the nation in terms of year-over-year employment changes going into June 2013. This is an improvement from figures during the Great Recession (Dec 2007 – June 2009, officially), where Atlanta’s performance was worse than the national average.
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ATL
US
Atlanta continues to outperform the nation in terms of year-over-year employment changes going into June 2013. This is an improvement from figures during the Great Recession (Dec 2007 – June 2009, officially), where Atlanta’s performance was worse than the national average.
Source: BLS
Month-by-Month Total Employment (in thousands) September 2006 – June 2013
Source: BLS
2100.0
2150.0
2200.0
2250.0
2300.0
2350.0
2400.0
2450.0
2500.0
Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13
Overall employment levels continue to improve into June 2013, reaching ever-closer to the peak of pre-recession levels.
Month-by-Month Total Employment (in thousands) September 2006 – June 2013
Overall employment levels continue to improve into June 2013, reaching ever-closer to the peak of pre-recession levels.
Source: BLS
2100.0
2150.0
2200.0
2250.0
2300.0
2350.0
2400.0
2450.0
2500.0
Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13
DEC ‘07: 2477.6
JUN ‘13: 2412.8
Annual Percent Change: Employment in High-Paying Sectors in Metro Atlanta
Percent Change
Percent Change
Percent Change
Percent Change
Overall, employment in key sectors continues to remain in positive territory, on a year-over-year basis. Wholesale Trade experienced slight decline in second quarter.
Source: BLS
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Professional/Business
Information Finance
Wholesale Trade
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Total Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Source: GA DOL
Initial unemployment insurance claims are spiky – with spikes usually occurring in January due to seasonal layoffs after the holidays. June figures are preliminary, but the trend of declining UI claims continues, and is starting to normalize toward pre-recession levels.
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Total Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Initial unemployment insurance claims are spiky – with spikes usually occurring in January due to seasonal layoffs after the holidays. June figures are preliminary, but the trend of declining UI claims continues, and is starting to normalize toward pre-recession levels.
Source: GA DOL
Monthly Building Permits – Metro Atlanta
Source: SOCDS
The metro Atlanta housing market is still weak, but it is rebounding. There were 2,804 residential permits issued in June of this year. In contrast, there were over 6,100 residential permits issued in June of 2006.
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Total Building Permits Issues – 2013 YTD (Through June) Top 15 Metros
Atlanta rises to the 4th highest in the nation in terms of residential permits issued into 2013. Permitting is still much lower compared to pre-recession levels, but these data indicate Atlanta’s resiliency in the midst of economic recovery.
Source: SOCDS
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Las Vegas
Chicago
Philadelphia
Boston
Charlotte
Orlando
Phoenix
Los Angeles
Austin
Miami
Washington DC
Atlanta
Dallas
New York
Houston
County-By County: Total Building Permits Issued 2011-2013 (2013 is Through June)
All jurisdictions are seeing significantly higher permitting activity through June of 2013, with some jurisdictions already surpassing 2012 (entire year) figures. Fulton County has issued the most residential permits thus far in 2013, with the majority in the City of Atlanta.
Source: SOCDS
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1000
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2012
2013
Case-Shiller Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100) Metro Atlanta: 2000 - Current
Home prices have been rebounding since the beginning of 2012. In metro Atlanta, figures are up to 2001 levels, and are continuing to rise in the second quarter.
Source: Case-Shiller Index
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Case-Shiller Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100) Metro Atlanta: 2000 - Current
Home prices have been rebounding since the beginning of 2012. In metro Atlanta, figures are up to 2001 levels, and are continuing to rise in the second quarter.
Source: Case-Shiller Index
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Case-Shiller Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100) Home Price Decline Since Peak
Atlanta’s decline in home prices is at 22.6% since the peak, but the trend indicates improving conditions from last quarter. Denver and Dallas have completely recovered from the recession, showing home prices higher today that are higher than the previous, pre-Recession peak.
Source: Case-Shiller Index
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-60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0%
NV-Las Vegas
FL-Miami
AZ-Phoenix
FL-Tampa
MI-Detroit
IL-Chicago
CA-San Diego
CA-Los Angeles
Composite-20
MN-Minneapolis
NY-New York
CA-San Francisco
GA-Atlanta
DC-Washington
WA-Seattle
OR-Portland
OH-Cleveland
MA-Boston
NC-Charlotte
CO-Denver
TX-Dallas
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Foreclosure Filings (Through June) 2010 – 2013
In every county, foreclosures are lower in 2013, thus far, when compared to the same period in the previous three years.
Source: Equity Depot
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Office Vacancy Rate – Metro Atlanta 2000 - current
The recession earlier this decade drove up office vacancy rates for the next few years, and they never returned to their pre‐recession levels. Vacancy rates continue to be higher than the highest levels experienced during the last recession. However, vacancy is continues to trend slightly downward.
Source: CoStar
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14.0%
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Total Net Absorption of Office Space – Metro Atlanta 2000 - current
There have now been nine consecutive quarters with positive net absorption (more occupied office space at the end of the quarter compared to the beginning). Absorption levels still are significantly lower than they were pre-recession, however.
Source: CoStar
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Number of Retail Buildings Under Construction– Metro Atlanta 2000 - current
As with residential building, construction of retail buildings is also way down when compared to historical trends, with practically no construction activity observed since the end of 2008.
Source: CoStar
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