Lean Planning: Resilient Plans for Complex Environments
Matt Barcomb, odbox
with Matt Barcomb @mattbarcomb [email protected]
Lean Planning: Resilient Plans for Complex Environments
(most comfortable) 1. Flow-based roadmaps 2. Options thinking 3. Planning for development
(least comfortable)
“Focus on everything, and you have not actually focused on anything.”
- Eli Goldratt
“Large queues make it hard to create urgency”
- Don Reinertsen
Flow-based
Flow-based Systems
Visualize work Pull work
Make explicit policies Limit work in progress
Measure with intent
Team A
Team B
Starter road map
Team A
Team B
Readiness
Infra.
Visualize work
Team A
Team B
Readiness
Infra.
Current Goal
Up Next
Coming Soon
On Horizon
Pull work
Team A
Team B
Readiness
Infra.
Current Goal
Up Next
Coming Soon
On Horizon
In Use
Pull work
Team A
Team B
Readiness
Infra.
Current Goal
Up Next
Coming Soon
On Horizon
In UseHBD
Pull work
Team A
Team B
Readiness
Infra.
Current Goal
Up Next
Coming Soon
On Horizon
In UseHBD
Make explicit policies
Team A
Team B
Readiness
Infra.
Current Goal
Up Next
Coming Soon
On Horizon
In UseHBD
1
Limit work in progress
Team A
Team B
Readiness
Infra.
Current Goal
Up Next
Coming Soon
On Horizon
In UseHBD
1222
Limit work in progress
Team A
Team B
Readiness
Infra.
Current Goal
Up Next
Coming Soon
On Horizon
In UseHBD
1222
Measure with intent
“Long-range planning does not deal with the future decisions, but with the future of present decisions.”
- Peter Drucker
Options-thinking
Real Options
Execute intentionally
Options are valuable
Options expire
Customer/Problem Hypothesis:
Questions & Dependencies:
Name:
Org Benefits:
Option Framing
Option Triggers
Starting or Stopping
- duration - seasonality - stakeholder feedback - govt. policy - major biz activity - competition shift - media/pr event - market shift - technology shift - employee shift - major social incident - better options
“Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.”
- George Box
Development Planning Models
Construction
Research
Scientific Research
Custom Construction
Complex Manufacturing
Mass Construction
Routine Manufacturing
Enterprise ERP Impl.
Software Product Dev.
Physical Product Dev.
Small ERP Impl.
Spectrum of Uncertainty
Sensing of knowns Response to unknowns
Amount of unknowables
Benefit
Risk
Cost
Shift Focus
Product: Galaxy
Expires in March
Benefit Mapping
Product: Galaxy
Revenue
Customer Satisfaction
Product Adoption
Product Awareness
Expires in March
Benefit Mapping
Product: Galaxy
Revenue
Customer Satisfaction
Product Adoption
Product Awareness
CompetitivenessDec. Mktg
Costs
Sales Reach
Brand Awareness
Expires in March
Benefit Mapping
Product: Galaxy
Revenue
Customer Satisfaction
Product Adoption
Product Awareness
CompetitivenessDec. Mktg
Costs
Sales Reach
Brand Awareness1
Expires in March
2
3
4
Benefit Mapping
Sales Reach
Increase Revenue
Decrease Mktg. Costs
Product Adoption
Product: Galaxy
Revenue
Customer Satisfaction
Product Adoption
Product Awareness
CompetitivenessDec.
Mktg Costs
Sales Reach
Brand Awareness
1
2
3
4
Weighted Scoring Rubric
Sales Reach 30% Increase
Revenue 10%Decrease Mktg. Costs 15%Product
Adoption 45%
Product: Galaxy
Revenue
Customer Satisfaction
Product Adoption
Product Awareness
CompetitivenessDec.
Mktg Costs
Sales Reach
Brand Awareness
1
2
3
4
Weighted Scoring Rubric
Sales Reach 30% Increase
Revenue 10%Decrease Mktg. Costs 15%Product
Adoption 45%1= <1% 5= >15%
1= <$5k 5= >$50k
1= no change 5= very easy
1= <10% of reg. 5= >40% of reg.
Options Scores
Product: Galaxy
Revenue
Customer Satisfaction
Product Adoption
Product Awareness
CompetitivenessDec.
Mktg Costs
Sales Reach
Brand Awareness
1
2
3
4
Weighted Scoring Rubric
Sales Reach 30% Increase
Revenue 10%Decrease Mktg. Costs 15%Product
Adoption 45%1= <1% 5= >15%
1= <$5k 5= >$50k
1= no change 5= very easy
1= <10% of reg. 5= >40% of reg.
Options ScoresNew catalogGrades Portal
Product: Galaxy
Revenue
Customer Satisfaction
Product Adoption
Product Awareness
CompetitivenessDec.
Mktg Costs
Sales Reach
Brand Awareness
1
2
3
4
Weighted Scoring Rubric
Sales Reach 30% Increase
Revenue 10%Decrease Mktg. Costs 15%Product
Adoption 45%1= <1% 5= >15%
1= <$5k 5= >$50k
1= no change 5= very easy
1= <10% of reg. 5= >40% of reg.
Options ScoresNew catalogGrades Portal
4 2 1 3
Product: Galaxy
Revenue
Customer Satisfaction
Product Adoption
Product Awareness
CompetitivenessDec.
Mktg Costs
Sales Reach
Brand Awareness
1
2
3
4
Weighted Scoring Rubric
Sales Reach 30% Increase
Revenue 10%Decrease Mktg. Costs 15%Product
Adoption 45%1= <1% 5= >15%
1= <$5k 5= >$50k
1= no change 5= very easy
1= <10% of reg. 5= >40% of reg.
Options ScoresNew catalogGrades Portal
4 2 1 3 285
Product: Galaxy
Revenue
Customer Satisfaction
Product Adoption
Product Awareness
CompetitivenessDec.
Mktg Costs
Sales Reach
Brand Awareness
1
2
3
4
Weighted Scoring Rubric
Sales Reach 30% Increase
Revenue 10%Decrease Mktg. Costs 15%Product
Adoption 45%1= <1% 5= >15%
1= <$5k 5= >$50k
1= no change 5= very easy
1= <10% of reg. 5= >40% of reg.
Options ScoresNew catalogGrades Portal
43
24
12
31
285295
Product: Galaxy
Revenue
Customer Satisfaction
Product Adoption
Product Awareness
CompetitivenessDec.
Mktg Costs
Sales Reach
Brand Awareness
1
2
3
4
Weighted Scoring Rubric
Activity: Create a B-Map
Your company just got $1B to research medical technology!
Medical Technology
Activity: Create a B-Map
Mind-map desired benefits (value)
Medical Technology
Activity: Create a B-Map
Rank the top 3
Medical Technology
Activity: Create a B-Map
Assign weights
Medical Technology
? % ? % ? %
Activity: Create a B-Map
Come up with 2 research options
Activity: Create a B-Map
Score 2 options (use a 1-5 scale)
Medical Technology
? % ? % ? %
Option 1Option 2
Activity: Create a B-Map
What did you discuss? How did you decide?
Coherence vs. Artifacts
Risk
Discuss Quantify Amplify 1 2 3
1
2
3
1 2 3
2 4 6
3 6 9
Likelihood
Impa
ct
Cost
“Learn just enough about cost to decide if its worth it to start.”
- Brief discussion - Rough-order magnitude - Snap to linear scale
“More effective development planning is achieved through using a flow-based road map
laid out with real options from which we can choose based primarily on the benefits they
provide while considering risks and understanding just enough about cost to get started.”
Questions?
Matt Barcomb @mattbarcomb [email protected]