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Teaching Futures, Systems and Strategic Thinking
Technologies Education
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6:00
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Systems Thinking
Computational Thinking
Design Thinking
Futures Thinking
Strategic Thinking Solutions Thinking .
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Futures Thinking
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2:30
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• conceptualise more just and sustainable human and planetary futures.
• develop knowledge and skills in exploring probable and preferred futures.
• understand the dynamics and influence that human, social and ecological systems have on alternative futures.
• conscientise responsibility and action on the part of students toward creating better futures.
Why study the future
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Fashion
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Environmental Scans
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Trend Analysis
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Cyclical Pattern Analysis
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Visioning
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Scenarios
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Backcasting
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www.nmc.orgHorizon Reports
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1:00
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Technological Evolution
Tool AgeMachine Age
Automation Age
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Technological EvolutionNeolithic Revolution
Stone, Bronze, Iron Ages Ancient Greek, Roman, Chinese technology
Medieval technology Renaissance technology
Industrial Revolution Atomic Age Space Age
Digital Revolution Information Age
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Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic
Arthur C Clarke
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Linear model of innovation
InventionInnovation
Diffusion
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It has become appallingly obvious that our technology has exceeded our humanity
Albert Einstein
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Once a new technology rolls over you, if you’re not part of the steamroller, you’re part of the road
Stewart Brand
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0:30
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We live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and technology and yet have cleverly arranged things so that almost no one understands science and technology. That’s a clear prescription for disaster
Carl Sagan
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Systems Thinking
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Systems Thinking makes it possible to analyse and understand complex phenomena
Systems Thinking
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Instead of isolating smaller and smaller parts of the system being studied, systems thinking works by expanding its view to consider larger and larger
numbers of interactions as an issue is being studied
Systems Thinking
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Thinking consists of two activities: constructing mental models and then simulating them in order to draw conclusions and make decisions
Barry Richmond
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Understanding the concept of a tree requires more information than is available through sensory experience alone. It’s built on past experiences and knowledge.
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The image of the world around us, which we carry in our head, is just a model. Nobody in his head imagines all the world… they have only selected concepts, and relationships between them, and uses those to represent the real system
Jay Forrester
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The problems we have created in the world today will not be solved by the level of thinking that created them
Albert Einstein
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We are limited in our capacity to form and reform mental models. Systems modelling allows us to move from “what” to “what if” and make our thinking visible
The basic building blocks of dynamic models are stocks, flows, and loops
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Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful
George Box
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A supermarket can be seen as any of the following kinds of systems, depending on the perspective:
a "profit making system" … from the perspective of management and owners
a "distribution system“… from the perspective of the suppliers
an "employment system“… from the perspective of employees
a "materials supply system“… from the perspective of customers
an "entertainment system“… from the perspective of loiterers
a "social system" …from the perspective of local residents
a "dating system" …from the perspective of single customers
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Students need learn to identify the properties of the various subsystems they explore, for example of a bicycle,
and examine how they relate to the whole. Children tend to think of the properties of a system as
belonging to individual parts of it rather than as arising from the interaction of the parts. A system property that
arises from interaction of parts is therefore a difficult idea.
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Students should already know that if something consists of many parts, the parts usually influence one another.
Also they should be aware that something may not work as well (or at all) if a part of it is missing, broken, worn out,
mismatched, or misconnected.
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1:00
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Students can learn about the choices and constraints that
go into the design of a bicycle system. Depending
on whether the bicycle is intended for racing,
mountain roads, or touring, influences its design and
such choices as the type of tires, frame and materials,
and drives and gears.
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In addition, accommodating one constraint can often lead to conflict with others. For example, the lightest material may not be the strongest, or the most efficient shape may
not be the safest or the most aesthetically pleasing. Therefore, every design problem lends itself to many
alternative solutions, depending on what values people place on the various constraints.
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Subsystems could include:
The Wheel Drivers & Gears
Frames & Materials Brakes & Steering
Aerodynamics Power System
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1:00
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Speed Safety Comfort Durability Endurance
The Wheels
Drivers and Gears
Frames and Materials
Brakes and Steering
Aerodynamics
Power System
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Parts Function Inputs Outputs Boundaries
The Wheels
Drivers and Gears
Frames and Materials
Brakes and Steering
Aerodynamics
Power System
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Wheel & Axle (subsystem) The wheel & axle
transfer energy from rubber band to the surface
to move the car.
Rubber band (energy) Elastic potential energy will be transferred to the wheel
and axle subsystem
Energy Conservation Most of the energy results in
motion.Some energy is transformed into heat through
friction with the surface
Boundaries: The Surface The Person
My hand (input) A person provides the
energy that is stored in the stretched rubber band.
Motion (output) The car moves as a
result of the energy that is put into the system.
A Physical System Energy Transfer
(Big Idea context)
A Rubber Band Car System
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Part
Function of the part
Part
Function of the part
Part
Function of the part
Predict: What if a part is missing?
Function of the whole system
Other systems with a part like this
Name all the parts
Parts & Wholes Function of the Part
Predict
F-2
Whole System
What form of energy makes this system work?
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Subsystem
Function
Subsystem
Function
Predict the effect of a broken subsystem (part)
Inputs
Changes in input
Outputs
What the whole system can do
Subsystems Inputs & Outputs
Functions & Predictions
3-4
Whole System
Describe how the output will change if we change the input
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Subsystem
Subsystem
Energy Output
Receiving System
Matter Input
Predict Changes
Matter Output
Receiving System
Energy Input
Inputs & Outputs Boundaries & Flow
Open & Closed Systems
5-6
Whole System
Give an example of how a change in a subsystem influences the entire system Is this system closed or open? Explain.
Boundaries of the system
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Whole System
Subsystems
Negative Feedback?
Inflow compared to outflow
Feedback from output
Positive Feedback?
Interaction with another system
Is the system in equilibrium or is it
changing?
Positive Feedback Negative Feedback
Equilibrium
7-8
How are models of this system used to make predictions? What are the limitations of the model in accurately making predictions?
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Behaviour (changes) over time
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Weather
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Weather
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Attendance
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Tying Shoes
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Experiments
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Literature
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Literature
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Tortoise vs the Hare
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As you are reading, look for key words such as: change transform revolution becoming more rose went up increased got higher grew/growth gained less fell went down decreased went
lower declined lost
Write down one or more quotes in each box. Circle key words of change and underline what you think is changing. Draw a line graph of how the
quote shows change over time. Explain why the change occurs.
Identifying Change Over Time in Text
Quotes from book Change over time Why this might be occurring
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Identifying Change Over Time in Text
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Behaviour over time
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Behaviour over time
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Behaviour over time
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What important elements have changed over time? How has __________ changed over time? During what period of time have the changes occurred? Where on the y-axis should the graph start and why? How would you label the bottom/middle/top of the y-axis? What evidence supports the graph being created?
Questions to ask when analysing a system that changes over time:
What caused any changes in direction or slope? How are interpretations of a graphed element the same or different? What changes may happen in the future based on what has been happening? Do you see any connections (interdependencies or causal relationships) between/among graphs?
Questions to consider once BOTGs have been created:
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Stocks and Flows
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Stocks are the foundation of any system and are the elements that you can see, feel, count, or measure Stocks do not have to be physical
Stocks
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Reservoirs
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Reservoirs
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Reservoirs
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Money
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Air Quality
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Air Quality
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Air Quality
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Animal Populations
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Animal Populations
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Human Populations
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Stock changes over time
IncreasingDecreasingOscillating
Stable
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Stocks change over time through the actions of a flow A stock is the present memory of the changing flows within a system
Flow
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Stone Soup
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The Waterhole
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The Waterhole
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The Waterhole
1:20
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A feedback loop is formed when changes in a stock affect the flows into or out of that same stock Balancing feedback loops are stability seeking and try to keep a stock at a certain level or within a certain range Reinforcing feedback loops occur when a system element has the ability to reproduce itself or grow at a constant fraction of itself
Loops
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Population Change
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Endangered Animals
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Marker Pen Scarcity
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Professional Development
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What is a stock related to the horse in a horse race?
What is a flow related to the horse in a horse race?
What is the relationships between the two?
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Stock represents an amount, e.g. distance travelled
Flow represents a rate, e.g. distance/second
They are related because they both relate to distance
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What is a stock related to a freeway?
What is a flow related to freeway?
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Stocks generally are described by nouns
Flow generally is described by verbs
Number of cars (noun); Entering/leaving freeway (verbs)
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Stock FlowHow are they alike?
How are they different?
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Piggy Bank
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Piggy BankGame 1 Rule: Put 2 “coins” in, take 1 “coin” out
Directions: 1. Write the rule at the top of the graph for Game 1. 2. Graph the number of “coins” in the piggy before you begin. 3. Write your prediction. 4. Round 1: Using the piggy handout, put 2 “coins” in, and then take 1 out. 5. Graph the number of “coins” left in the piggy on the line for round 1. 6. Round 2: Add two more “coins”, then take 1 away, graph... continue doing so for 3
more rounds; record the number of “coins” left at the end. 7. Was your prediction correct? Why or why not?
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Piggy BankGame 2 Make a new rule to save more money than in the first game but that can still be seen on the graph.
Game 3 Make a new rule with money going in and out that shows how money can decrease (go down) over time.
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Piggy Bank
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Rats of Nimh
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Rats of Nimh
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Rats of Nimh
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Rats of Nimh
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Rats of Nimh
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Symbols
A converter holds information or
relationships that affect the rate of the flows, or that
affect the content of another converter
A connector indicates that
changes in one element cause
changes in another element; only
changes a stock by going through an
accompanying flow
A flow represents actions or processes; transports “stuff”,
concrete or abstract, that directly adds to or takes away from accumulation in a stock;
the verbs in the system
A stock represents an accumulation,
concrete or abstract, that increases or
decreases over time; the nouns in
the system
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Feedback Loops
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World Population
Increasing or compounding Reinforcing Feedback
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Avalanche
Increasing or compounding Reinforcing Feedback
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Epidemics
Increasing or compounding Reinforcing Feedback
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Rumours
Increasing or compounding Reinforcing Feedback
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Fads
Increasing or compounding Reinforcing Feedback
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Interest Rates
Increasing or compounding Reinforcing Feedback
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Confidence
Decreasing or collapsing Reinforcing Feedback
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Soil Fertility
Decreasing or collapsing Reinforcing Feedback
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Predator / Prey
Equalising / Oscillating Balancing Feedback
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Exercise
Equalising / Oscillating Balancing Feedback
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Supply and Demand
Equalising / Oscillating Balancing Feedback
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Fire Management
Equalising / Oscillating Balancing Feedback
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Cruise Control
Equalising / Oscillating Balancing Feedback
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Growing Plants
Causal Loops
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Immunisation
Causal Loops
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Connecting Loops
Central B indicates a Balancing loop, R a Reinforcing loop Central + or - indicates positive (growth or decline) or negative (oscillating or seeking) loops Arrowed signs indicate the direction of causality + (adds to or changes it in same direction or - (takes from or change direction) o reverses direction or subtracts, s same direction or adds to it
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Friendships
Reinforcing Causal Loops
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Literature
Balancing Causal Loops
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Connecting Loops
0:22
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Food and Fibre Production
Both Types of Causal Loops
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Slavery
Reinforcing Causal Loops 0:34
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Types of loops
Lilly Pads
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Types of loops
Reinforcing Feedback
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Types of loops
Body Temperature
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Types of loops
Balancing Feedback
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Types of loops
Rebellions
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Types of loops
Balancing Feedback
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Types of loops
Savings
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Types of loops
Reinforcing Feedback
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Types of loops
Cruise Control
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Types of loops
Balancing Feedback
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Types of loops
An odd number of negative (-) connections indicates a
balancing loop.
An even number of negative (-) connections indicates a
reinforcing loop.
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Rats of Nimh
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Rats of Nimh
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Rats of Nimh
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Rats of Nimh
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Rats of Nimh
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Air Pollutionrespiratory disease air pollution (CO2)
coal burned economic development
factories cancer
death rate coal production
coal dust power stations
environmental regulation pollution outsourcing to China
standard of living cars
natural resources
Audio article and transcript
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Air PollutionStock/Flow Map
Connection Circle
finding feedback loops
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Stock/Flow Map
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Stock/Flow Map
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Identifying Loops
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Causal Loop
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Stock/Flow Map
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Identifying Loops
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Causal Loop
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Connection Circle
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Connection Circle
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Connection Circle
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Causal Loop
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Connection Circle
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Causal Loop
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Connection Circle
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Causal Loop
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Systems Thinking Stocks Flows
Causal Loops Flow Maps
Connection Circles Simulations
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Strategic Thinking
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Thinking as a leader, manager and entrepreneur
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Entrepreneurial Thinking
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Pitching business plans
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Applying for business loans and managing
project budgets
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Planning and running events
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Marketing their solutions
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Determine if their solutions are profitable and
sustainable
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Enthusing their teams
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Managing differences and conflicts
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Understanding the benefits of diverse viewpoints
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Opportunities to bring in outside help and outsource
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Creativity
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Project Planning
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Teamwork
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Budgeting