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Telecommunications Ecosystems
A peek into the future of
- Technology
- Market
- Business
Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore Roadshow – July 2008
Internal Innovation
Strong Control of Depl.
Efficiency to compete
Competition pushes value at the end client
From Value Chains to Ecosystems
Innovation
VALUE
EFFICIENCY…2000
Concurrent Innovation
Strong Control of Depl.
Shared Control on Root
Scale advantage
Competition is on price
From Value Chains to Ecosystems
Inno
vatio
n
PERCEIVED VALUE
VALUE2000 … NOW
Out of field Innovation
Marginal-No Control of Depl.
Mashed Value Creation
Intermediation Advantage
Competition is on biz Models
From Value Chains to Ecosystems
Innovation
PERCEIVED VALUE
VALUE
NOW … Next Decade
Evolution: bio vs Tech& Mkt Ecosystem
MarketMarket
AmbientAmbient
TechTech
Distribution of the degree of aggregation by 2010
02468
1012141618
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21
k
n(k)
Evolution: bio vs Tech& Mkt Ecosystem
EvolutionRandom + Selection Creativity + Market
SuccessEnv.Share + variations Market share + release
Internal CompetitionDynamic Equilibrium Dynamic Equilibrium
External CompetitionNew Configurations New Value Chains
Evolution: bio vs Tech& Mkt Ecosystem
No Return thresholdsLocal Optimum Production Process
Energy ConsumptionAdvantage of the small
Economic Efficiency
DiscontinuitySpeciation Displacement
Cross FeedbackFood Chains Value Chains
From Convergence to Variety
2010 2020
SSD
1 TB
200 TB
10s TB
50 ns
Burst vs Streaming
Bit/Vid Torrent Down vs Up
Distribution Chain
Sticker Energy Control
From Convergence to Variety
Processing anywhere
Low power cons/diss
Ultra capacity “fibred
appliances”
Commodity
Real time rendering
Ambient awareness
2010 2020
1c GFlop
100 TFlop
100s PFlop
0.2% 0.001%
2Tbps Interc. fabric
Gbps Interc. F. 100s’Gbps Interc. F.WperGflop
28 Qbit100 Qbit
New Networks
MULTIMEDIA PLATFORM
DVB-H
CONTENT ENGINE/DRM
IPTVWEB
MUSIC GAMESVIDEO
C2P
IP-DSLAM(4.000)
ADSL2+( ˜10Mbit/s)
//
OPTICALPACKET
BACKBONE
OPTICALPACKETMETRO
FTTCVDSL2( 50Mbit/s )
// IP- MSAN(ONU)
GPON
MULTISERVICEEDGE NODE
(POP)
PERSONAL COMMUNICATION PLATFORM
MSG
IMS
VIDEOOVER IP
VOIP
HSS MSGDIRECTORY
P2P
STORAGEICT
SERVICES PLATFORM
APPLICATIONS
SOAUTILITY COMPUTING
MESSAGINGCOLLABORATION
MANAGEDSERVICES
STORAGEON DEMAND
DISASTERRECOVERY
MESSAGESTORE
B2B+C
FTTH / B( 100Mbit/s )
Service Centers
FTTB
Broadband Area
Ultra Broadband Area
////
//
RAN - CN
BBAN - CN
BSS – OSS PLATFORM
DATAWAREHOUSE
SERVICEASSURANCE
WORK FORCEMANAGEMENT
BILLING
TRAFFIC&
USAGE
NETWORKNEUTRAL EM
ERP
NETWORKMANAGEMENT
NETWORKDATA BASE
CRM
SERVICEDELIVERY
CUSTOMERDATA BASE
New Networks: the Energy Challenge
‘84 ‘88 ‘92 ‘96
GWh
Years‘98 ‘06 ‘08
Start of network digitalization
End of network digitalization
Energy consumption became a Key Issue
Start ADSL deployment
Actions on cooling
and energy systems
Start NGN2 deployment
New challenge on energy saving
Need of further actions on TLC equipments
E TOT
E TLC
E TOT: total energy consumption from mains (TLC equipment, cooling, ausiliary systems)
E TLC: energy consumption of TLC equipment
Wireline network domain
AppliancesPower Consumpt.
New Services
2020
2010
2015
Mega…
2 Mpx15 Mbps
TV –HDTV - TrueLifeTV
Digital Camera
Display
16 Mpx120 Mbps
WQXGA
NED
Av. Bandwidth per home
Home Bandwidth
Giga…
VDSL-3 HD channel
32 Mpx240 Mbps
SEDImmersive video8 Mpx
60 Mbps
My view of Communications in 2015
Visual Personalised Contextualised No distinction between People, Information,
Services Seamless fabric joining reality and Web Fading away of the Telephone Number Involving a variety of loosely coupled Actors
COMMUNICATIONS will BE:
My view of Communications in 2015
My view of Communications in 2015
My view of Communications in 2015
My view of Communications in 2015
The vineyard
Wine tasting
Buy!
Your diet
Wine History
My view of Communications in 2015
Technologies Sensors/AwarOptical Tags
Bar Codes/SemDNA Markers
Image LocalizRFID Print Elect
OBJECTS Detection SystemsNetwork Mirror
CarsHand readersCell Phones/Ca
Cell PhonesNFC
PERCEPTION
From Atoms to Bits
Technologies
OBJECTS
DetectionSystems
Municipal.
Tourist Ag.
Product Pr.
Content Pr.
Individ.WKComm.WK Regulations
A
MB
IE
NT
PERCEPTION
From Atoms to Bits
Technologies
OBJECTS
DetectionSystems
Municipal.
Tourist Ag.
Product Pr.
Content Pr.
Individ.WKComm.WK Regulations
A
MB
IE
NT
Ntw Pl/HostGoogle
Snapfish
Srv.Aggr.
Track/V.A
PERCEPTION
CO
NN
EC
TIV
.
Aggregators
From Atoms to Bits
Technologies OBJECTS DetectionSystems
Municipal.
Tourist Ag.
Product Pr.
Content Pr.
Individ.WKComm.WK Regulations
A
MB
IE
NT
Platforms
Srv.Aggr.
Track/V.A
Aggregators
PERCEPTION
CO
NN
EC
TIV
.
From Atoms to Bits
Technologies OBJECTS DetectionSystems
Municipal.
Tourist Ag.
Product Pr.
Content Pr.
Individ.WKComm.WK Regulations
A
MB
IE
NT
Platforms
Srv.Aggr.
Track/V.A
META Data C.
Stat.MeaningE.
Pers.Aggreg.
Ambient Creat.
Serv.Prov.Aggregators
PERCEPTION
CO
NN
EC
TIV
.
CO
NT
EX
T-M
EA
NIN
G
From Atoms to Bits
Technologies OBJECTS DetectionSystems
Municipal.
Tourist Ag.
Product Pr.
Content Pr.
Individ.WKComm.WK Regulations
A
MB
IE
NT
Platforms
Srv.Aggr.
Track/V.A
META Data C.
Stat.MeaningE.
Pers.Aggreg.
Ambient Creat.
Devices
Logistics
CRM
PHARMA
News/Mg
Serv.Prov.Aggregators
PERCEPTION
CO
NN
EC
TIV
.
CO
NT
EX
T-M
EA
NIN
G
Industry
CO
OR
DIN
AT
ION
From Atoms to Bits
Technologies OBJECTS DetectionSystems
Municpal.
Tourist Ag.
Product Pr.
Content Pr.
Individ.WKComm.WK Regulations
A
MB
IE
NT
Platforms
Srv.Aggr.
Track/V.A
META Data C.
Stat.MeaningE.
Pers.Aggreg.
Ambient Creat.
Devices
Logistics
CRM
PHARMA
News/Mg
Serv.Prov.Aggregators
PERCEPTION
CO
NN
EC
TIV
.
CO
NT
EX
T-M
EA
NIN
G
Industry
CO
OR
DIN
AT
ION
SOCIETY – ETICS - CULTURE
From Atoms to Bits
Future Center: Ecosystems evolution
Future Center: Ecosystems evolution
Disruptive Assumptions:
Connectivity grows in pervasiveness and bandwidth
At lower and lower price to end user Provided by many players some not in telecommunications Bandwidth is not a revenue generator, just an enabler
Content grows in quantity and diversity value tends to decrease on content instance value tends to shift to content interpretation content exploiter are not the content owners
Value chains embedded in Ecosystems Decreasing control on innovation Exploitation of the ecosystem fabric Foster and enabling are more important than Creating
Future Center: Ecosystems evolution
Themes:
- Ecosystems modeling, technology and market roadmaps
- Atoms and bits: connecting the physical and virtual world
- MicroMachinery and distributed production
- From massive distributed data to information Mash Ups
- Digital (video) photography as social fabric
- Life and lives in bits
TILab
Working at the Future Centre
Core FC
Weekly• brainstorming new ecosystem• ecosystem presentation on site
Monthly• ecosystem report• engaging the players – open event
HY-Milestone• Report: new biz models for new ecosystems• Event: Partnering for competition
YE-Milestone• Report: Opportunities, Challenges to get there• Event: The fabric for the future
5 of 1 leading 3 engaging 10 networking with 100
You at the Future Centre
• Open to other Companies participation
• One year committment• Company pays for his researcher • Telecom Italia provides office and infrastructure
• Open to post-Doc enrolled in the Gold Program
• One year committment• Telecom Italia provide a bourse• Telecom Italia provides office and infrastructure
• Fluency in English required
Thanks!
Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore Roadshow –July 2008
Get the full multimedia presentation from COMSOC at www.comsoc.org -> education > DLT