![Page 1: Life-Time Emissions Budget for New Coal-Fired Power Plants By Hoff Stauffer at Climate Policy Initiative Center for Clean Air Policy November 8, 2007 Washington,](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/5513fb02550346ec488b4612/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Life-Time Emissions Budget for
New Coal-Fired Power PlantsBy
Hoff Staufferat
Climate Policy Initiative
Center for Clean Air PolicyNovember 8, 2007
Washington, DC
![Page 2: Life-Time Emissions Budget for New Coal-Fired Power Plants By Hoff Stauffer at Climate Policy Initiative Center for Clean Air Policy November 8, 2007 Washington,](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/5513fb02550346ec488b4612/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Coal In Power Plants Is The Largest Potential Source of Growth
in Global CO2 EmissionsCumulative CO2 Emissions by Fuel/Sector
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044 2049 2054
years
10^9
Ton
s of
CO
2
Other Coal
Other Oil
Gas
Oil in Transport
Coal in Power
![Page 3: Life-Time Emissions Budget for New Coal-Fired Power Plants By Hoff Stauffer at Climate Policy Initiative Center for Clean Air Policy November 8, 2007 Washington,](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/5513fb02550346ec488b4612/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Limitations of Cap and Trade
• Does not work well on consumer purchases, such as cars, homes, and appliances. [The so-called “discount rate” problem.]
• Could work well for electricity generation • But leverage is with new sources, not existing
sources where cap/trade has worked well.• Very hard to figure out the economic and
environmental effects and/or agree on wealth transfers (allowance allocations). [Being used as a delay tactic by opponents of progress.]
• Would not interface well with rest of world.
![Page 4: Life-Time Emissions Budget for New Coal-Fired Power Plants By Hoff Stauffer at Climate Policy Initiative Center for Clean Air Policy November 8, 2007 Washington,](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/5513fb02550346ec488b4612/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Market-Based Approaches Are Not Limited to Cap and Trade
• There is a very heavy government hand in the design of a cap and trade system
• With performance standards, government sets the target and then steps back to let the market achieve it
• It has worked well in the past and has served to stimulate (“force”) new technologies
![Page 5: Life-Time Emissions Budget for New Coal-Fired Power Plants By Hoff Stauffer at Climate Policy Initiative Center for Clean Air Policy November 8, 2007 Washington,](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/5513fb02550346ec488b4612/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Hence, Options for Controlling New Coal-fired Power Plants Should Be Considered
1. Performance Standards For New Sources Are A Viable Option;
2. As Is A Life-Time Emissions Budget
![Page 6: Life-Time Emissions Budget for New Coal-Fired Power Plants By Hoff Stauffer at Climate Policy Initiative Center for Clean Air Policy November 8, 2007 Washington,](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/5513fb02550346ec488b4612/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Lifetime Emissions Budget for New Coal Plants
• Set a life-time CO2 budget (e.g., 60 years) for any new coal plant.
• Budget might be based on a plausible trajectory for best-performing low-carbon coal technologies (e.g., IGCC with increasing percentages of carbon capture and sequestration over time).
• However, the plant owner could meet the budget using a variety of compliance strategies, as shown below
![Page 7: Life-Time Emissions Budget for New Coal-Fired Power Plants By Hoff Stauffer at Climate Policy Initiative Center for Clean Air Policy November 8, 2007 Washington,](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/5513fb02550346ec488b4612/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
The Key Design Elements of a Life-time Emissions Budget Are:
• Years of Life (assume 60 years)• Capacity Factor (assume 75%)• Controlled Heat Rate (assume 9300 with 25%
control penalty)• Controlled Emissions Rate (assume 85%
removal)
Result is 71 tons per KW over 60 years,
versus 378 tons per KW uncontrolled
![Page 8: Life-Time Emissions Budget for New Coal-Fired Power Plants By Hoff Stauffer at Climate Policy Initiative Center for Clean Air Policy November 8, 2007 Washington,](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/5513fb02550346ec488b4612/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
A Life-Time Emissions Budget Has Several Key Attributes
• The effect can be equivalent to a performance standard, but it provides increased flexibility
• It could interface well with a cap and trade system
• It would stimulate technology but does not require betting on any single technology, particularly one that is not fully “demonstrated”
![Page 9: Life-Time Emissions Budget for New Coal-Fired Power Plants By Hoff Stauffer at Climate Policy Initiative Center for Clean Air Policy November 8, 2007 Washington,](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/5513fb02550346ec488b4612/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Examples of Strategic Options for Compliance with a Life-Time Budget
A. Control emissions from the beginning, such as with a performance standard
B. Delay for five years and install advanced technology with lower heat rate penalty (15% versus 25%) and higher removal efficiency (90% versus 85%)
C. Delay for ten years with lower capacity factor (65% versus 75% for ten years) and then install more advanced technology with lower heat rate penalty (10% versus 15%) and higher removal efficiency (95% versus 90%)
And lots of other options
![Page 10: Life-Time Emissions Budget for New Coal-Fired Power Plants By Hoff Stauffer at Climate Policy Initiative Center for Clean Air Policy November 8, 2007 Washington,](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/5513fb02550346ec488b4612/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Each of These Options Will Comply With the Life-time Budget
Strategic Options with a Life-time Emissions Budget
Annual Emissions
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Years
To
ns p
er
year
per
MW
Uncontrolled
Strategy A
Strategy B
Strategy C
![Page 11: Life-Time Emissions Budget for New Coal-Fired Power Plants By Hoff Stauffer at Climate Policy Initiative Center for Clean Air Policy November 8, 2007 Washington,](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/5513fb02550346ec488b4612/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Effect on Cumulative EmissionsIs the Same
Strategic Options with a Life-time Emissions Budget
Cumulative Emissions
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
Years
Cu
mu
lati
ve T
on
s p
er
MW
Controlled
Strategic Option A
Strategic Option B
![Page 12: Life-Time Emissions Budget for New Coal-Fired Power Plants By Hoff Stauffer at Climate Policy Initiative Center for Clean Air Policy November 8, 2007 Washington,](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/5513fb02550346ec488b4612/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Some Design Subtleties
• Life-time budget can interface well with a cap and trade system. Life-time budget amounts to allocated emission allowances which can be traded, but probably want to limit total emissions to the life-time budget.
• Need to provide for what happens after 60 years. Could assign an on-going allowable emissions rate at a high removal efficiency or could require that allowances be purchased.
• Need to guard against sham plants designed only to be granted the allowances
![Page 13: Life-Time Emissions Budget for New Coal-Fired Power Plants By Hoff Stauffer at Climate Policy Initiative Center for Clean Air Policy November 8, 2007 Washington,](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/5513fb02550346ec488b4612/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Comments/Questions Please To
Hoff Stauffer
Managing Director
Wingaersheek Research Group
Gloucester, MA 01930
978-281-1674
![Page 14: Life-Time Emissions Budget for New Coal-Fired Power Plants By Hoff Stauffer at Climate Policy Initiative Center for Clean Air Policy November 8, 2007 Washington,](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/5513fb02550346ec488b4612/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
For Elaboration on These Points Please See Other Articles By the Author
• “The Conventional Wisdom Is Inhibiting Progress On Climate Change Mitigation,” Second Meeting of the Montreal Group on Climate Stabilization, Berlin, Germany, September 27, 2006;
• “A New Standard for Preventing Global Warming,” (Silver City, NM and Washington, DC; Foreign Policy in Focus, October 4, 2006);
• "Climate Change: Is It Prudent to Wait?" (Silver City, NM and Washington, DC: Foreign Policy In Focus, February 21, 2007);
• “Global Warming Myths,” MIT Technology Review, May, 2007.
• “New Sources Will Drive Global Emissions,” Energy Policy, July, 2007
![Page 15: Life-Time Emissions Budget for New Coal-Fired Power Plants By Hoff Stauffer at Climate Policy Initiative Center for Clean Air Policy November 8, 2007 Washington,](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/5513fb02550346ec488b4612/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Appendix
Other Interesting Slides
which will not be presented
![Page 16: Life-Time Emissions Budget for New Coal-Fired Power Plants By Hoff Stauffer at Climate Policy Initiative Center for Clean Air Policy November 8, 2007 Washington,](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/5513fb02550346ec488b4612/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
The Technologies Exist To Get Where We Probably Need to Be
Components of Mitigation Strategy
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Years
An
nu
al
10
^9
to
ns
of
CO
2
Reference Case
ReverseDeforestation
Plus Efficiency inBuidlings and Industry
Plus TransportationEfficiency
Plus Coal Mitigation(new only)
Plus Coal Mitigation(existing too)
Plus Biofuels
Globally Without Inhibiting Economic Growth
![Page 17: Life-Time Emissions Budget for New Coal-Fired Power Plants By Hoff Stauffer at Climate Policy Initiative Center for Clean Air Policy November 8, 2007 Washington,](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/5513fb02550346ec488b4612/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Draconian Measures Would Not be Required
MITIGATION COSTS AS % GDP IN 2050
World 0.4%
US and Canada 0.4%
Rest of OECD 0.3%
China 0.4%
Rest of Asia 0.5%
Russia and Other Transition 0.6%
Central and South America 0.3%
Mideast and Africa 0.4%
And there would not have to be a vast transfer of wealth from the developed to the developing world
![Page 18: Life-Time Emissions Budget for New Coal-Fired Power Plants By Hoff Stauffer at Climate Policy Initiative Center for Clean Air Policy November 8, 2007 Washington,](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/5513fb02550346ec488b4612/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
The Leverage Is With The New Sources
Percent New ----------------Useful Life-----------------
After Growth Rate 10 20 30 40 50
10 Years in future 0.0% 90% 45% 30% 23% 18% 2.5% 92% 57% 45% 39% 36% 5.0% 94% 66% 57% 52% 50% 20 Years in future 0.0% 100% 95% 63% 48% 38% 2.5% 100% 97% 78% 68% 62% 5.0% 100% 98% 86% 82% 77% 30 years in future 0.0% 100% 100% 97% 73% 58% 2.5% 100% 100% 98% 87% 80% 5.0% 100% 100% 99% 94% 90% 40 Years in future 0.0% 100% 100% 100% 98% 78% 2.5% 100% 100% 100% 100% 92% 5.0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 50 Years in future 0.0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 2.5% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 5.0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
![Page 19: Life-Time Emissions Budget for New Coal-Fired Power Plants By Hoff Stauffer at Climate Policy Initiative Center for Clean Air Policy November 8, 2007 Washington,](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/5513fb02550346ec488b4612/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Even For Coal-Fired Power PlantsNew vs Existing Coal
CO2 Emissions
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2002 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044 2049 2054
Years
10
^9 to
ns
of C
O2
Exisiting Coal
Total Coal
New Coal
Need to Focus on Long-Lived Assets First: Power Plants and Buildings
![Page 20: Life-Time Emissions Budget for New Coal-Fired Power Plants By Hoff Stauffer at Climate Policy Initiative Center for Clean Air Policy November 8, 2007 Washington,](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/5513fb02550346ec488b4612/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Delay Is A Really Dumb Idea.
Annual Global CO2 Emissions
0.05.0
10.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.050.0
Years
10
^9
To
ns
of
CO
2
Mitigation Without Delay
Mitigation With Delay
With Delay, Draconian Measures Might Be Required.