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LOCAL ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT | FED DISTRICTS
Analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas shows that Texas and the region are growing again. The Fed’s Dallas district, which includes Texas and parts of Louisiana and New Mexico, has grown more quickly since 2000 than other districts. But in a city-by-city comparison,Dallas lags other cities in the state. Among Texas metro areas, Houston has grown the fastestsince 2000.
As Texas grows, Dallas lags HoustonBy BRENDAN CASE
Staff Writer
TROY OXFORDStaff Artist
“We are forecasting 3 percent
employment growth for the Texas
economy this year — about 312,000new jobs. High oil prices are a
headwind for the national economy, but
still benefit the state economy, on net.
The current uptick in
the Texas Leading
Index, which has
been a fairly reliable
indicator of future
job growth, implies
robust near-term
employment
growth.”
The bottom line
“North Texas took a big hit during the
recession, as nearly all its industries
got caught in the downturn. While theunemployment rate remains high,
Dallas Fed indexes show
that the area has been
coming back. Among
big cities
nationwide,
Dallas-Fort Worth
and Houston rank
among the leaders
in percentage job
growth over the last
12 months.”
“During the recent recession, the
business-cycle movements were similar
across metro areas, peaking aroundmid-2008 and hitting a bottom in the
second half of 2009. The expansion has
been moderate, with growth in the
Houston economy
increasing at a
somewhat faster pace
due to energy sector
strength. Dallas is still
suffering from the hit
to its financial
industry.”
Brendan Case, staff writer, The Dallas Morning News
Jesús Cañas, associate economist,
Federal Reserve Bank of DallasMine Yücel, senior economist,
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Employment by Fed district
Texas Leading Index
90
105
120
135
150
150
160
170
180
190
200
Since 2000, employment has grown more quickly in the Federal Reserve’s Dallas district than in any of the 11 other Fed
districts, according to an index compiled by the Dallas Fed. The Chicago and Cleveland districts have seen the largest
employment contractions.
The Texas Leading Index, which is
designed to shed light on the state
economy’s future, has been mostly
increasing in the last two years after
plummeting in the recession. In
February, the index hit its highest level
since August 2008 — the month
before Wall Street investment bank
Lehman Brothers failed.
Texas Business-Cycle Index
The Texas Business-Cycle Index helps
gauge the current condition of the
state economy. During the recent
recession, the index bottomed out in
the second half of 2009. While the
index currently stands at its highest
level in two years, it remains well
below its peak in mid-2008.
Metro Business-Cycle Indexes
The Dallas Fed compiles indexes
designed to reflect economic conditions
in Texas metro areas. In the last 10 years,
Houston has seen the largest
improvement in its economy, while
Dallas has been an underperformer.
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
80
90
100
110
120
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
January 2000=100
Index level
(1987=100)
Index level
(1987=100)
Index level
(Jan. 2000=100)
Dallas districtU.S.
Other Fed districts
’00 ’00 ’00’05 ’05 ’05’11 ’11 ’11
Houston-Sugar Land-
BaytownFort Worth-Arlington
San Antonio
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
