Download - Luxembourg, 9 Juin 2010
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Luxembourg, 9 Juin 2010
CENTRAL COMMISSION FOR THE NAVIGATION
OF THE RHINE
CENTRAL COMMISSION FOR THE NAVIGATION OF THE RHINE
Norbert Kriedel
Economist
COMMISSION CENTRALE POUR LA NAVIGATION DU RHINZENTRALKOMMISSION FÜR DIE RHEINSCHIFFFAHRT
CENTRALE COMMISSIE VOOR DE RIJNVAART
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Norbert Kriedel, Economist, CCNR
Market Observation European Inland NavigationCentral Commission for Navigation on the Rhine
Inland Shipping Data in Market Monitoring
2
ETISplus Waterborne Transport Data Workshop Neth-ER (The Netherlands House for Education and Research Aarlenstraat (Rue d’Arlon) 22, Brussels12.05.2011
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Overview Main Areas of Market Observation
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Overview Sources of Market Observation1) Transport Demand
4
Data for transport demand…
• National Statistical Offices
• National Shipping Authorities (also regional data) Austria: Via Donau
France: Voies Navigables de France Germany: Wasserschifffahrtsdirektionen
• International organizations Eurostat ITF/OECD
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Goods Transport in Inland Navigation – Danube Countries
5Sources: National Statistical Offices
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Data for Transport Demand – Problems and Limitations
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1) No actual transport statistics for certain countries (e.g. Belgium, Netherlands)
2) Transit Traffic sometimes not included in official data.
Alternative: Estimations based on …
• Inland Port Statistics
• Sea Port Statistics (overall traffic / hinterland share / modal split share of IWT)
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Data for Transport Demand – Problems and Limitations (II)
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3) Eurostat Change from NST/R goods classification to NST 2007
Loss of information New goods categories are often not well specified for market observation
Example:
Old Classification: (NST/R)Code 11: Iron Ore, Metal Wastes …. Steel segmentCode 15: Sand & Gravel …. Construction segment
New Classification: (NST 2007)GT 03: Ores, Sand & Gravel, other mining materials …. Both segments
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Data for Transport Demand – Problems and Limitations (II)
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Eurostat Change from NST/R goods classification to NST 2007
Possible solution of the Problem:
Harmonisation of NST 2007 on 3 digits at a European level
all countries shall be obliged to produce statistics at this degree of detail
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Transport Ores and Metal Wastes(Rhine)
9Sources: German Statistical Office; Eurofer. German Steel Production
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Jan 2008
May 2008
Sep 2008
Jan 2009
May 2009
Sep 2009
Jan 2010
May 2010
Sep 2010
Jan 2011
1.00
0 t Steel Production
Transport Ores and Metal Wastes
Steel Production = Reference Series
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Overview Sources of Market Observation2) Transport Supply
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Data for fleet statistics…
•National Statistical Offices•International Ship Registers (IVR)•Ministries of Transport
Problems/Limitations:
• Sometimes two different sources for one country
• Problems of actuality in some countries
• Active / Inactive fleet: Some sources contain inactive ships
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Tanker Shipping in Western Europe – Comparison of Supply and Demand over time
11Source: Calculation CCNR based on data for tanker fleets in Belgium France, Germany, Netherlands, Luxemburg (source: IVR)
020406080
100120140160
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Index
2003
= 100
Fleet Capacity
Transport Volume
2003 until 2010
TransportVolume + 4 %
Fleet Capacity + 35 %
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Overview Sources of Market Observation3) Microeconomic Indicators
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• Cost Structure and Evolution of Costs sources: shipping industry associations
• Freight Rates sources: surveys of shippers
• Turnover calculations CCNR for dry cargo market / tanker shipping based on freight rates and transport volumes of the whole industry
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Freight Rates in Tanker Shipping on the Rhine (Gasoil freight rates)
13Source: PJK International
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Freight Rates in Tanker Shipping and Water level
14Source: PJK International; Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde
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Freight Rates, Transport Demand and Turnover (Tanker shipping)
15Source: CCNR
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60
2009-1
2009-2
2009-3
2009-4
2010-1
2010-2
2010-3
2010-4
year-on-year % change
Turnover
Freight Rates
Transport Volume
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Overview Sources of Market Observation4) Labour Market Issues
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Data sources for employment studies in inland shipping …
• National Statistical Offices (for overall employment and employment in sub-markets, wages, etc. )
• National Social Security Organizations (for employment according to age groups, number of foreign personnel, number of female and male employees, etc.)
• Social Security Organizations for self-employed (for number of self-employed inland shippers)
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Employment in Dutch Inland Navigation (fte = full time equivalents)
17Source: CBS
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Age Structure in Belgian Inland Shipping
18Source: ONSS / INASTI
11,3
45,2 43,5
18,8
49,9
31,2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
15 till 29 30 till 49 over 50
% sh
are
self-employed
employed
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Employment in German Inland Shipping
19Source: German Statistical Office
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Thank you very much for your attention.
Merci beaucoup pour votre attention. Vielen Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit.
Dank u voor uw aandacht.
Norbert Kriedel, CCRMarket observation –
Central Commission for Navigation of the Rhine (CCNR)
20