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LYTIQ GmbH
Vorhersagen besser treffen – mit Predictive AnalyticsKöln, April 2015
Jun.-Prof. Dr. Artus Krohn-Grimberghe
Chief Data Scientist
April 2015, LYTIQ GmbH. Jun.-Prof. Dr. Artus Krohn-Grimberghe
Agenda
Introduction
Predictive Analytics Use Cases
An Azure Architecture for
Predictive Analytics
Azure Machine Learning Demo
Page 2April 2015, LYTIQ GmbH. Jun.-Prof. Dr. Artus Krohn-Grimberghe
IntroductionLeveraging Predictive Analytics and Machine Learning
- From structured and unstructured data
- For Big Data and small data scenarios
April 2015, LYTIQ GmbH. Jun.-Prof. Dr. Artus Krohn-Grimberghe
LYTIQ employees have worked for the following customers
Page 4April 2015, LYTIQ GmbH. Jun.-Prof. Dr. Artus Krohn-Grimberghe
What is Machine Learning / Predictive AnalyticsFind out how Machine Learning & Predictive Analytics works
to better understand where and how to apply it.
April 2015, LYTIQ GmbH. Jun.-Prof. Dr. Artus Krohn-Grimberghe
What is Machine Learning (ML)
Making
Predictions
X
Input Data
Customer
attributes & past
transactions
y
Purchase
Indicator
Target Data
Page 6April 2015, LYTIQ GmbH. Jun.-Prof. Dr. Artus Krohn-Grimberghe
What is Machine Learning (ML)
Making
Predictions
X 𝑦
Input Data
h( )So we try some
functions h that
we do know and
see which does
best
h(X) generates
predictions 𝑦.
Should be close to
original 𝑦.
Target Data
Customer
attributes & past
transactions Purchase
Predictions
Page 7April 2015, LYTIQ GmbH. Jun.-Prof. Dr. Artus Krohn-Grimberghe
What is Predictive Analytics (PA)
It is an oversimplification…
… and as with all marketing terms there is lots of dispute…
But to me:
Predictive Analytics is applying ML to business problems.
I.e.:
Customer churn should be predicted.
Historic data is available.
Available data actually explains that what should be predicted.
Data is shaped to differentiate between customers in the various lifecyclestates.
Now ML models are built to score the customer‘s propensity to churn giving hisbehaviour.
Page 8April 2015, LYTIQ GmbH. Jun.-Prof. Dr. Artus Krohn-Grimberghe
Machine Learning / Predictive Analytics Use Cases Find out how Machine Learning & Predictive Analytics can help you
make complex decisions better and faster.
April 2015, LYTIQ GmbH. Jun.-Prof. Dr. Artus Krohn-Grimberghe
Predictive Analytics Now Span Several
Industries
Web app
optimization
Smart meter
monitoring
Targeted
Advertising
Life sciences
research
Fraud
detection
Healthcare
outcomes
Weather
forecasting
Natural resource
exploration
Social network
analysis
Telemetry Data
Analysis
Buyer Propensity
Models
Predictive
Maintenance
Churn Analysis
Network Intrusion
Detection
Page 10April 2015, LYTIQ GmbH. Jun.-Prof. Dr. Artus Krohn-Grimberghe
Predicting Part Maintenance
No sensor for measuring the thickness
of a brake pad or wear of a tire• Need to predict when a failure will occur.
Inform the driver• Change of parts might be necessary in a few
weeks
Order parts and prepare an individual
maintenance package before the driver
comes to the garage
Analytical Task: • Predict the possibility of next break pad failure using data collected from sensors and telemetry
1
3
2
Assigndrivers into categories • Sports driver, Grandma / Grandpa driver
Provide offerings based on
driver type• Sports package for the sports driver
Make a special offer for the
next car• Sporty look for the sports driver
Analytical Task: • Cluster the relevant diagnostics data to find groups of drivers with common driving habits
1
3
2
Use Case: Customer Segmentation
Page 12April 2015, LYTIQ GmbH. Jun.-Prof. Dr. Artus Krohn-Grimberghe
Use Case: Improving Vehicle Recalls
OnBoard
Storage
Aggregated
Data
Archive
Additional Data Collection for selected vehicles
Scored Vehicles
On service
contact
Page 13April 2015, LYTIQ GmbH. Jun.-Prof. Dr. Artus Krohn-Grimberghe
Use Case: ATM Failure Prediction
Page 14April 2015, LYTIQ GmbH. Jun.-Prof. Dr. Artus Krohn-Grimberghe
Other IoT Use Cases
Improved Production Monitoring
- Trace errors in production to machine components and process steps
- Dynamic production tolerances
Product Lifecycle Management
- Find true requirements for new components
- Improve Weibull Bayes models
Page 15April 2015, LYTIQ GmbH. Jun.-Prof. Dr. Artus Krohn-Grimberghe
Use-Case: Targeted Mailing Optimization
DWH
CMS
Campaign-
Management
Page 16April 2015, LYTIQ GmbH. Jun.-Prof. Dr. Artus Krohn-Grimberghe
Other Predictive Analytics Use Cases
Customer Analytics
- Unified Customer View
- Customer Segmentation
- Market Segments
- Customer Clusters
- Full individual-level personalization
- Customer Retention / Churn Detection
- Prospective Client Analysis
- Dynamic Personalization / Recommendations
- Cross-Selling, Up-Selling
- During car configuration
- For direct sales contact
Page 17April 2015, LYTIQ GmbH. Jun.-Prof. Dr. Artus Krohn-Grimberghe
How about Elevators & Escalators?
Data from *lots* of machines having
dozens of sensors
Data generated per minute (practically
up to seconds)
Event Hubs
Complex Event Processing
Page 18April 2015, LYTIQ GmbH. Jun.-Prof. Dr. Artus Krohn-Grimberghe
Predicting & Optimizing Traffic
Full routes known
Predicting ETA / trip time
Improving ETA predictions
Predicting load on route segments
Detect traffic jams and
consequences
Central traffic planning?
No, social gaming
Load based traffic pricing and taxing?
“Improved London Congestion
Charge”
Page 19April 2015, LYTIQ GmbH. Jun.-Prof. Dr. Artus Krohn-Grimberghe
Improve Logistics to Reduce Traffic
Project proposed (BMBF)
Central logistics planning DB & service
Increase transparency
Reduce trafficLogistics
Marketplace
Page 20April 2015, LYTIQ GmbH. Jun.-Prof. Dr. Artus Krohn-Grimberghe
Ground Image Data
Commercial satellite imagery available
on at least daily basis
planet.com, 2x per day
spire.com, 24x per day
5m or better GSD
Improve traffic models!
Detect roads, (illegal) construction,
land use,…
Can tell different kinds of trees or
crops apart
Page 21April 2015, LYTIQ GmbH. Jun.-Prof. Dr. Artus Krohn-Grimberghe
Other Topics
Joint intelligent transportation systems
Trains, long distance & local commute
Rental cars
Cabs
Bicycles
Electricity
Water
Waste
Pollution
Emergency prediction & management
Other public services
Page 22April 2015, LYTIQ GmbH. Jun.-Prof. Dr. Artus Krohn-Grimberghe
SQL Server
enables data
mining of
databases
Computers
work on users
behalf, filtering
junk email
Microsoft
Kinect can
watch users
gestures
Microsoft
launches
Azure Machine
Learning,
making years
of innovation
available
Microsoft
search engine
built with
machine
learning
Bing Maps
ships with ML
traffic-
prediction
service
Successful,
real-time,
speech-to-
speech
translation
Microsoft & Machine Learning20 years of realizing innovation
John Platt, Distinguished scientist at
Microsoft Research
1999 201220082004 201420102005
Machine learning is pervasive throughout
Microsoft products.“”
Microsoft & Machine Learning
Page 23April 2015, LYTIQ GmbH. Jun.-Prof. Dr. Artus Krohn-Grimberghe
What is Azure ML
Page 24April 2015, LYTIQ GmbH. Jun.-Prof. Dr. Artus Krohn-Grimberghe
Advanced analytics architecture
• HDFS• RDBMS• NoSQL stores• Blobs and tables
ML
Studio
API
Marketplace
Page 25April 2015, LYTIQ GmbH. Jun.-Prof. Dr. Artus Krohn-Grimberghe
Revolution Analytics R
Acquisition still pending close. Treat them as a partner
until then.
http://blog.revolutionanalytics.com/2015/01/revolution-acquired.html
http://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2015/01/23/microsoft-acquire-revolution-
analytics-help-customers-find-big-data-value-advanced-statistical-analysis
Microsoft and Revolution Analytics
Strategic Rationale
28
Revolution R
Open
Revolution R
Enterprise
R Language Engine with multi-core processing Included Supported
R Reproducibility Toolkit & MRAN Included Supported
ParallelR: Parallel Programming Toolkit Supported
RHadoop: R interface to Hadoop MapReduce Supported
DeployR Open: Web Services API Supported
RRE DeployR – Multi-server, enterprise authentication Licensed & Supported
RRE ScaleR – Big Data toolkit and PEMAs for R Licensed & Supported
RRE DistributedR – EDW, Grids, Hadoop Licensed & Supported
AdviseR Technical Support Included
Open Source Assurance Included
Revolution Analytics Services (Consulting / Training) Available Available
Search for a model
All Industries
Banking
Education
Government Customer Churn Customer Conversion Product Recommendation House Pricing
Churn Prediction // CH_M5
“We reduced our customer turnover by 25% using
this model, it identified customers most at risk and
enabled us to improve our relationship overall with
our customers.”
Alice Wing, Customer Relations Director, Contoso Corp
Page 29April 2015, LYTIQ GmbH. Jun.-Prof. Dr. Artus Krohn-Grimberghe
LYTIQ GmbH is a Solution Provider for Predictive Analytics.
Contact person:
Jun.-Prof. Dr. Krohn-Grimberghe, Artus
LYTIQ GmbH
Technologiepark 19
33100 Paderborn
+49 5251 682207-0
www.lytiq.de
Whether “Big Data” or “Small Data”-
analytics – we are your reliable partner.
Page 30April 2015, LYTIQ GmbH. Jun.-Prof. Dr. Artus Krohn-Grimberghe